Championship · Review

Championship matchweek 12 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Championship result from matchweek 12 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 24 Oct 2026, updated 25 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Championship, matchweek 12 (23–24 October 2026), is complete: twelve matches, 36 goals (3.00 a game), six home wins, three draws and three away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in six of the twelve and both teams scored in seven.

The result the model rated least likely was the draw in Sheffield Utd v Derby (1–1), which it had at 23%; the one it rated most likely was Wolves's win in Wolves v Watford (1–0), at 62%.

After the round, Middlesbrough lead on 25 points, one point clear of Southampton, with Swansea third on 23. The bottom three are Burnley (8), Derby (7), Preston (5).

Match by match

Bolton 1–5 MiddlesbroughFri 23 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Bolton 35%, the draw 25% and Middlesbrough 40%, so Middlesbrough winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.02–4.40: Middlesbrough created the better chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 81%, came in. Pick published: Bolton +0.5 at 2.35 — lost.

Charlton 1–3 NorwichSat 24 Oct, 12:30

Before kick-off the model had Charlton 28%, the draw 24% and Norwich 48%, so Norwich winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.87–1.75: Norwich created the better chances. The headline call, Norwich to win at 48%, came in.

Portsmouth 2–1 MillwallSat 24 Oct, 12:30

Before kick-off the model had Portsmouth 31%, the draw 27% and Millwall 42%, with Millwall favoured; it put Portsmouth winning at 31%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.91–0.73: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Millwall to win at 42%, did not come in.

Sheffield Utd 1–1 DerbySat 24 Oct, 12:30

Before kick-off the model had Sheffield Utd 50%, the draw 23% and Derby 27%, with Sheffield Utd favoured; it put the draw at 23%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 2.55–1.15: Sheffield Utd created the better chances. The headline call, Sheffield Utd to win at 50%, did not come in.

Blackburn 2–0 WrexhamSat 24 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Blackburn 40%, the draw 28% and Wrexham 33%, so Blackburn winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.61–1.74: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Blackburn to win at 40%, came in.

Cardiff 1–0 BirminghamSat 24 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Cardiff 45%, the draw 25% and Birmingham 30%, so Cardiff winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.40–0.91: Cardiff created the better chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 82%, did not come in.

Lincoln 4–1 BurnleySat 24 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Lincoln 52%, the draw 24% and Burnley 25%, so Lincoln winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.94–2.37: Burnley created the better chances. The headline call, Lincoln to win at 52%, came in.

Preston 1–1 West BromSat 24 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Preston 25%, the draw 27% and West Brom 48%, with West Brom favoured; it put the draw at 27%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.83–2.09: an even contest on chances. The headline call, West Brom to win at 48%, did not come in.

QPR 5–0 SwanseaSat 24 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had QPR 32%, the draw 29% and Swansea 39%, with Swansea favoured; it put QPR winning at 32%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.30–0.27: QPR created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 56%, did not come in. Pick published: QPR -0.5 at 2.42 — won.

Stoke City 0–0 Bristol CitySat 24 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Stoke City 40%, the draw 28% and Bristol City 32%, with Stoke City favoured; it put the draw at 28%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.71–0.79: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Stoke City to win at 40%, did not come in.

West Ham 2–3 SouthamptonSat 24 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had West Ham 47%, the draw 22% and Southampton 31%, with West Ham favoured; it put Southampton winning at 31%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.60–1.61: an even contest on chances. The headline call, over 3.5 goals at 52%, came in.

Wolves 1–0 WatfordSat 24 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Wolves 62%, the draw 22% and Watford 16%, so Wolves winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-0. Expected goals were 1.88–0.15: Wolves created the better chances. The headline call, Wolves to win at 62%, came in.

The numbers this season

Championship has averaged 2.89 goals a game over 144 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 60% of them and both sides scoring in 63%. Home sides have won 40% of matches, 28% have been drawn and away sides have won 32%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.