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Championship predictions: matchweek 15 (6–7 November 2026)

Every Championship match in matchweek 15 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 30 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Championship, matchweek 15: twelve matches, played across 6–7 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Southampton, 67% to beat Preston away; the most evenly balanced game is Wrexham v Wolves (Wrexham 37%, draw 25%, Wolves 38%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Cardiff v Burnley, at 3.39; the tightest looks Birmingham v Swansea, at 2.40.

Going into the round, Middlesbrough lead on 25 points, one point clear of Southampton, with Swansea third on 23. The bottom three are Burnley (8), Derby (7), Preston (5).

The numbers this season

Championship has averaged 2.89 goals a game over 144 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 60% of them and both sides scoring in 63%. Home sides have won 40% of matches, 28% have been drawn and away sides have won 32%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Derby v BoltonFri 6 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Derby 35%, the draw 26% and Bolton 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.88 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is both teams to score at 59%. Derby are 23rd on 7 points from 12; Bolton are 18th on 14 points from 12. Derby are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); Bolton have won two of their last five.

Bristol City v NorwichSat 7 Nov, 12:30

Our model makes Bristol City 32%, the draw 25% and Norwich 43%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.98 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 80%. Bristol City are 14th on 15 points from 12; Norwich are 20th on 12 points from 12. Bristol City have won one of their last five; Norwich have won one of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Bristol City wins, draws and Norwich wins.

Portsmouth v Stoke CitySat 7 Nov, 12:30

Our model makes Portsmouth 40%, the draw 28% and Stoke City 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.55 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Portsmouth to win at 40%. Portsmouth are 11th on 18 points from 12; Stoke City are 9th on 20 points from 12. Portsmouth have won three of their last five; Stoke City have won three of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Portsmouth wins, draws and Stoke City wins.

Wrexham v WolvesSat 7 Nov, 12:30

Our model makes Wrexham 37%, the draw 25% and Wolves 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 3.05 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 81%. Wrexham are 17th on 14 points from 12; Wolves are 5th on 21 points from 12. Wrexham have won two of their last five; Wolves have won two of their last five.

Birmingham v SwanseaSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Our model makes Birmingham 40%, the draw 29% and Swansea 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.40 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 57%. Birmingham are 7th on 20 points from 12; Swansea are 3rd on 23 points from 12. Birmingham have won three of their last five; Swansea have won three of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Blackburn v West HamSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Our model makes Blackburn 25%, the draw 24% and West Ham 51%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.09 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is West Ham to win at 51%. Blackburn are 10th on 18 points from 12; West Ham are 4th on 22 points from 12. Blackburn have won three of their last five; West Ham have won two of their last five.

Cardiff v BurnleySat 7 Nov, 15:00

Our model makes Cardiff 57%, the draw 22% and Burnley 21%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (10%), 3.39 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is Cardiff to win at 57%. Cardiff are 16th on 14 points from 12; Burnley are 22nd on 8 points from 12. Cardiff have won three of their last five; Burnley have won one of their last five.

Charlton v Sheffield UtdSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Our model makes Charlton 26%, the draw 25% and Sheffield Utd 49%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.91 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is Sheffield Utd to win at 49%. Charlton are 19th on 14 points from 12; Sheffield Utd are 12th on 16 points from 12. Charlton are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Sheffield Utd have won two of their last five. Charlton have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Preston v SouthamptonSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Our model makes Preston 15%, the draw 19% and Southampton 67%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (10%), 3.38 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is Southampton to win at 67%. Preston are 24th on 5 points from 12; Southampton are 2nd on 24 points from 12. Preston are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Southampton have won three of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Preston wins, draws and Southampton wins.

QPR v LincolnSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Our model makes QPR 36%, the draw 25% and Lincoln 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 3.03 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 81%. QPR are 8th on 20 points from 12; Lincoln are 15th on 15 points from 12. QPR have won two of their last five; Lincoln have won one of their last five.

Watford v MiddlesbroughSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Our model makes Watford 16%, the draw 21% and Middlesbrough 63%. The likeliest score is 0-2 (11%), 3.00 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Middlesbrough to win at 63%. Watford are 21st on 11 points from 12; Middlesbrough are 1st on 25 points from 12. Watford have won one of their last five; Middlesbrough are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws). The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Watford wins, draws and Middlesbrough wins.

West Brom v MillwallSat 7 Nov, 15:00

Our model makes West Brom 34%, the draw 29% and Millwall 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.42 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 50%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 57%. West Brom are 6th on 21 points from 12; Millwall are 13th on 15 points from 12. West Brom have won two of their last five; Millwall have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

A pick is published only where the best available price stands clear of the model's probability and the market's consensus together; most fixtures get none. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.