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Championship predictions: matchweek 14 (3–4 November 2026)

Every Championship match in matchweek 14 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 27 Oct 2026, updated 28 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Championship, matchweek 14: twelve matches, played across 3–4 November 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Lincoln, 60% to beat Watford away; the most evenly balanced game is Portsmouth v Swansea (Portsmouth 35%, draw 28%, Swansea 37%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Cardiff v West Ham, at 3.65; the tightest looks Blackburn v Stoke City, at 2.40.

Going into the round, Middlesbrough lead on 25 points, one point clear of Southampton, with Swansea third on 23. The bottom three are Burnley (8), Derby (7), Preston (5).

The numbers this season

Championship has averaged 2.89 goals a game over 144 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 60% of them and both sides scoring in 63%. Home sides have won 40% of matches, 28% have been drawn and away sides have won 32%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Blackburn v Stoke CityTue 3 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Blackburn 40%, the draw 29% and Stoke City 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.40 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 57%. Blackburn are 10th on 18 points from 12; Stoke City are 9th on 20 points from 12. Blackburn have won three of their last five; Stoke City have won three of their last five. Two of the sides' last two meetings were drawn.

Charlton v BoltonTue 3 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Charlton 28%, the draw 26% and Bolton 46%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.76 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is Bolton to win at 46%. Charlton are 19th on 14 points from 12; Bolton are 18th on 14 points from 12. Charlton are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Bolton have won two of their last five.

Derby v NorwichTue 3 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Derby 32%, the draw 24% and Norwich 45%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.28 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 84%. Derby are 23rd on 7 points from 12; Norwich are 20th on 12 points from 12. Derby are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); Norwich have won one of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Derby wins, draws and Norwich wins.

Portsmouth v SwanseaTue 3 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Portsmouth 35%, the draw 28% and Swansea 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.47 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 55%. Portsmouth are 11th on 18 points from 12; Swansea are 3rd on 23 points from 12. Portsmouth have won three of their last five; Swansea have won three of their last five. Swansea have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Preston v Sheffield UtdTue 3 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Preston 21%, the draw 22% and Sheffield Utd 56%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.18 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is Sheffield Utd to win at 56%. Preston are 24th on 5 points from 12; Sheffield Utd are 12th on 16 points from 12. Preston are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Sheffield Utd have won two of their last five. Preston have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

QPR v BurnleyTue 3 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes QPR 51%, the draw 24% and Burnley 25%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.11 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is QPR to win at 51%. QPR are 8th on 20 points from 12; Burnley are 22nd on 8 points from 12. QPR have won two of their last five; Burnley have won one of their last five.

Watford v LincolnTue 3 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Watford 18%, the draw 22% and Lincoln 60%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.96 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Lincoln to win at 60%. Watford are 21st on 11 points from 12; Lincoln are 15th on 15 points from 12. Watford have won one of their last five; Lincoln have won one of their last five.

Birmingham v MillwallTue 3 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Birmingham 38%, the draw 28% and Millwall 34%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.51 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Birmingham to win at 38%. Birmingham are 7th on 20 points from 12; Millwall are 13th on 15 points from 12. Birmingham have won three of their last five; Millwall have won one of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Birmingham wins, draws and Millwall wins.

West Brom v SouthamptonTue 3 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes West Brom 28%, the draw 25% and Southampton 47%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.89 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is Southampton to win at 47%. West Brom are 6th on 21 points from 12; Southampton are 2nd on 24 points from 12. West Brom have won two of their last five; Southampton have won three of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Cardiff v West HamWed 4 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Cardiff 33%, the draw 22% and West Ham 45%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (9%), 3.65 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 70%. The headline call is West Ham to win at 45%. Cardiff are 16th on 14 points from 12; West Ham are 4th on 22 points from 12. Cardiff have won three of their last five; West Ham have won two of their last five.

Wrexham v MiddlesbroughWed 4 Nov, 19:45

Our model makes Wrexham 29%, the draw 24% and Middlesbrough 47%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.17 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is Middlesbrough to win at 47%. Wrexham are 17th on 14 points from 12; Middlesbrough are 1st on 25 points from 12. Wrexham have won two of their last five; Middlesbrough are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws). Two of the sides' last two meetings were drawn.

Bristol City v WolvesWed 4 Nov, 20:00

Our model makes Bristol City 32%, the draw 28% and Wolves 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.58 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Wolves to win at 40%. Bristol City are 14th on 15 points from 12; Wolves are 5th on 21 points from 12. Bristol City have won one of their last five; Wolves have won two of their last five.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

A pick is published only where the best available price stands clear of the model's probability and the market's consensus together; most fixtures get none. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.