Watford v 
Lincoln
Match statistics
| Watford | Lincoln | |
|---|---|---|
| 18 | Shots | 12 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 7 | Corners | 6 |
| 17 | Fouls | 10 |
| 5 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 0 |
| 444 | Passes | 289 |
| 59% | Possession % | 41% |
| 0.69 | xG | 0.81 |
- Over 1.5
- 80%
- Over 2.5
- 57%
- Over 3.5
- 34%
- Both score
- 55%
- Model pick
- Lincoln 60%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 0.99 – 1.98
Advised bets
Half wonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 2 of 5Watford -0.75
Why this price?
Back Watford -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 2.62 with BetVictor — Watford must win by more than 0.75 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 13% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 58%; we judge it at 40%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.50. The offered 2.62 implies only 38%, so the price is 4.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.71 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Watford 0.99, Lincoln 1.98.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Watford | 17.8% | 5.62 | 2.77 Betano | 36.1% | -18.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 22.4% | 4.47 | 3.50 Betfair | 28.6% | -6.2 |
| Match result | Lincoln | 59.8% | 1.67 | 3.05 Betano | 32.8% | +27.1 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 80.1% | 1.25 | 1.33 Betano | 75.2% | +4.9 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 19.9% | 5.01 | 4.10 Betfair | 24.4% | -4.4 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 56.9% | 1.76 | 2.00 Bet365 | 50.0% | +6.9 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 43.1% | 2.32 | 2.00 Bet365 | 50.0% | -6.9 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 34.5% | 2.90 | 3.50 Bet365 | 28.6% | +5.9 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 65.5% | 1.53 | 1.40 Bet365 | 71.4% | -5.9 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 54.6% | 1.83 | 1.75 Betano | 57.1% | -2.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 45.4% | 2.20 | 2.10 Bet365 | 47.6% | -2.2 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Lincoln favoured against Watford
Our model makes Watford 18% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 22% and Lincoln at 60%. The goal projection is 0.99 for Watford against 1.98 for Lincoln — a commanding edge to Lincoln on expected output. A combined 2.96 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 57% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 0-2 10%
- 1-2 10%
- 0-1 10%
- 0-3 7%
This season
| Watford | Lincoln | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 4-3-8 | W-D-L | 4-3-8 |
| 1.00 | Pts / game | 1.00 |
| 0.87 | Goals for / game | 1.00 |
| 1.53 | Goals against / game | 1.73 |
| 40% | Over 2.5 | 60% |
| 47% | BTTS | 53% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 40% | Failed to score | 27% |
| 4-2-2 | Home record | 1-2-4 |
| 0-1-6 | Away record | 3-1-4 |
| D1 | Streak | L3 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Watford · Lincoln
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.9 | Shots | 11.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.1 | Shots on target | 3.4 |
| 3.9 | Corners | 3.0 |
| 3.00 | Cards | 3.00 |
| 11.7 | Fouls | 12.4 |
| 49 | Possession % | 39 |
| 1.14 | xG | 1.19 |
| 7 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Conceded
| 17.3 | Shots | 16.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.3 | Shots on target | 5.5 |
| 6.0 | Corners | 6.8 |
| 2.14 | Cards | 2.88 |
| 12.6 | Fouls | 12.6 |
| 51 | Possession % | 61 |
| 1.80 | xG | 1.66 |
| 7 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Form comparison
| Watford | Metric | Lincoln |
|---|---|---|
| 0.60 | Goals scored | 1.40 (better) |
| 2.20 (better) | Goals conceded | 2.80 |
| 1.13 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.35 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.60 (better) | Shots on target | 3.40 |
| 12.80 (better) | Total shots | 12.00 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.60 (better) | Corners | 2.20 |
| 49.4 (better) | Possession % | 34.6 |
| 394 (better) | Passes | 264 |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.20 | Fouls | 11.20 |
| 1.20 (better) | Offsides | 2.80 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 3.75 | Yellow cards | 2.00 (better) |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 1.50 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Watford wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Lincoln wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 1.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- Watford v Lincoln1–02026-11-03
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +14 | 29 | Birmingham won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +11 | 29 | Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +6 | 29 | Stoke City won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +14 | 28 | Southampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | Wolves won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | West Brom won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 26 | Swansea won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +6 | 24 | QPR won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +14 | 23 | West Ham won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | +8 | 21 | Norwich won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | Blackburn won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 18 | Cardiff won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 18 | Wrexham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Millwall won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 18 | Bristol City won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 17 | Bolton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 | Charlton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 15 | Watford won 2 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 15 | Lincoln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -9 | 10 | Burnley won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -16 | 10 | Derby won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -17 | 8 | Preston won 1 of the last 5 |