West Brom v 
Southampton
Match statistics
| West Brom | Southampton | |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Shots | 10 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 3 | Corners | 5 |
| 13 | Fouls | 10 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 4 | Offsides | 1 |
| 583 | Passes | 507 |
| 53% | Possession % | 47% |
| 2.12 | xG | 1.40 |
- Over 1.5
- 79%
- Over 2.5
- 55%
- Over 3.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 58%
- Model pick
- Southampton 47%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.23 – 1.65
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 5Southampton
Why this price?
Back Southampton to win at 2.60 with Betano.
Our model puts the chance at 47% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 37%; we judge it at 41%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.45. The offered 2.60 implies only 38%, so the price is 6.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.96 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: West Brom 1.23, Southampton 1.65.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 21.1% | 4.74 | 4.55 Betano | 22.0% | -0.9 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 32.7% | 3.06 | 3.25 Betfair | 30.8% | +2.0 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 67.3% | 1.49 | 1.55 Betano | 64.5% | +2.8 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 57.9% | 1.73 | 1.70 Betano | 58.8% | -1.0 |
| Match result | West Brom | 27.9% | 3.58 | 2.55 Betfair | 39.2% | -11.3 |
| Match result | Draw | 25.4% | 3.94 | 3.65 Betano | 27.4% | -2.0 |
| Match result | Southampton | 46.7% | 2.14 | 3.00 William Hill | 33.3% | +13.3 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 78.9% | 1.27 | 1.31 Betano | 76.3% | +2.6 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 55.1% | 1.81 | 1.95 Betano | 51.3% | +3.8 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 44.9% | 2.23 | 2.22 Betano | 45.0% | -0.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 42.1% | 2.37 | 2.47 Betano | 40.5% | +1.7 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Southampton favoured against West Brom
Our model makes West Brom 28% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 25% and Southampton at 47%. The goal projection is 1.23 for West Brom against 1.65 for Southampton — a clear edge to Southampton on expected output. A combined 2.89 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 1-2 9%
- 0-1 9%
- 0-2 8%
- 2-1 7%
This season
| West Brom | Southampton | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 8-4-3 | W-D-L | 8-4-3 |
| 1.87 | Pts / game | 1.87 |
| 1.53 | Goals for / game | 1.93 |
| 1.00 | Goals against / game | 1.00 |
| 47% | Over 2.5 | 53% |
| 67% | BTTS | 73% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 13% | Failed to score | 13% |
| 4-3-1 | Home record | 6-1-0 |
| 4-1-2 | Away record | 2-3-3 |
| W1 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. West Brom · Southampton
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.3 | Shots | 15.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.8 | Shots on target | 5.4 |
| 6.8 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 1.89 |
| 10.3 | Fouls | 8.1 |
| 58 | Possession % | 57 |
| 2.17 | xG | 1.67 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Conceded
| 12.1 | Shots | 15.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.1 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 5.9 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 2.63 |
| 13.4 | Fouls | 13.5 |
| 42 | Possession % | 43 |
| 1.26 | xG | 1.21 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Form comparison
| West Brom | Metric | Southampton |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 1.20 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded | 0.80 (better) |
| 1.71 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.84 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.20 | Shots on target | 4.60 (better) |
| 15.00 (better) | Total shots | 14.20 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 7.60 (better) | Corners | 3.80 |
| 60.4 (better) | Possession % | 55.0 |
| 523 (better) | Passes | 504 |
| Tackles | ||
| 9.60 | Fouls | 8.40 (better) |
| 0.80 (better) | Offsides | 3.40 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.60 (better) | Yellow cards | 3.00 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 1.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- West Brom wins
- 0
- Draws
- 2
- Southampton wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 100%
- West Brom v Southampton1–12026-11-03
- West Brom v Southampton1–12026-03-11
- Southampton v West Brom3–22025-12-09
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +14 | 29 | Birmingham won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +11 | 29 | Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +6 | 29 | Stoke City won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +14 | 28 | Southampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | Wolves won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | West Brom won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 26 | Swansea won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +6 | 24 | QPR won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +14 | 23 | West Ham won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | +8 | 21 | Norwich won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | Blackburn won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 18 | Cardiff won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 18 | Wrexham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Millwall won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 18 | Bristol City won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 17 | Bolton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 | Charlton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 15 | Watford won 2 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 15 | Lincoln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -9 | 10 | Burnley won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -16 | 10 | Derby won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -17 | 8 | Preston won 1 of the last 5 |