Birmingham v 
Millwall
Match statistics
| Birmingham | Millwall | |
|---|---|---|
| 19 | Shots | 15 |
| 8 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 6 | Corners | 2 |
| 12 | Fouls | 9 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 475 | Passes | 376 |
| 55% | Possession % | 45% |
| 1.23 | xG | 0.93 |
- Over 1.5
- 72%
- Over 2.5
- 46%
- Over 3.5
- 24%
- Both score
- 52%
- Model pick
- Birmingham 38%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.30 – 1.20
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 5Millwall
Why this price?
Back Millwall to win at 3.60 with Dafabet.
Our model puts the chance at 34% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 27%; we judge it at 29%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.39. The offered 3.60 implies only 28%, so the price is 6.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.59 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Birmingham 1.30, Millwall 1.20.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 1 of 5Under 2.5
Why this price?
Back under 2.5 goals at 2.12 with Betano — 2 goals or fewer in the match.
Our model puts the chance at 54% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 46%; we judge it at 49%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.03. The offered 2.12 implies only 47%, so the price is 4.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.02 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Birmingham 1.30, Millwall 1.20.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Birmingham | 38.3% | 2.61 | 2.02 Dafabet | 49.5% | -11.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 28.2% | 3.55 | 3.75 Dafabet | 26.7% | +1.5 |
| Match result | Millwall | 33.5% | 2.98 | 3.80 Betfair | 26.3% | +7.2 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 72.1% | 1.39 | 1.26 Betano | 79.4% | -7.3 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 27.9% | 3.58 | 4.33 Bet365 | 23.1% | +4.8 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 45.8% | 2.18 | 1.80 Betano | 55.6% | -9.7 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 54.2% | 1.85 | 2.10 Bet365 | 47.6% | +6.5 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 24.4% | 4.09 | 3.00 Bet365 | 33.3% | -8.9 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 75.6% | 1.32 | 1.44 Bet365 | 69.4% | +6.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 51.7% | 1.94 | 1.67 William Hill | 59.9% | -8.2 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 48.3% | 2.07 | 2.30 Betfair | 43.5% | +4.9 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Birmingham v Millwall: too close to call
Our model makes Birmingham 38% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 28% and Millwall at 34%. The goal projection is 1.30 for Birmingham against 1.20 for Millwall — a slight edge to Birmingham on expected output. A combined 2.51 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 46% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 1-0 10%
- 0-1 9%
- 0-0 9%
- 2-1 8%
This season
| Birmingham | Millwall | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 8-5-2 | W-D-L | 5-3-7 |
| 1.93 | Pts / game | 1.20 |
| 1.87 | Goals for / game | 1.53 |
| 0.93 | Goals against / game | 1.80 |
| 73% | Over 2.5 | 80% |
| 60% | BTTS | 47% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 13% | Failed to score | 27% |
| 4-4-0 | Home record | 3-2-2 |
| 4-1-2 | Away record | 2-1-5 |
| W3 | Streak | L2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Birmingham · Millwall
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.4 | Shots | 13.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.9 | Shots on target | 4.2 |
| 5.0 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 2.33 |
| 11.5 | Fouls | 12.0 |
| 54 | Possession % | 48 |
| 1.85 | xG | 1.66 |
| 8 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Conceded
| 12.3 | Shots | 14.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.3 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 3.8 | Corners | 6.2 |
| 1.66 | Cards | 2.25 |
| 10.1 | Fouls | 10.6 |
| 46 | Possession % | 52 |
| 1.38 | xG | 1.45 |
| 8 matches | sample | 9 matches |
Form comparison
| Birmingham | Metric | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| 2.00 (better) | Goals scored | 1.20 |
| 0.60 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.40 |
| 1.67 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.51 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.20 (better) | Shots on target | 4.20 |
| 13.40 (better) | Total shots | 13.20 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.60 | Corners | 7.40 (better) |
| 54.4 (better) | Possession % | 52.0 |
| 469 (better) | Passes | 344 |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.80 | Fouls | 12.80 |
| 2.00 (better) | Offsides | 2.60 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.20 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.80 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Birmingham wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- Millwall wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 3.33
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 0%
- Birmingham v Millwall3–02026-11-03
- Millwall v Birmingham3–02026-02-25
- Birmingham v Millwall4–02025-11-04
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +14 | 29 | Birmingham won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +11 | 29 | Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +6 | 29 | Stoke City won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +14 | 28 | Southampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | Wolves won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | West Brom won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 26 | Swansea won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +6 | 24 | QPR won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +14 | 23 | West Ham won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | +8 | 21 | Norwich won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | Blackburn won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 18 | Cardiff won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 18 | Wrexham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Millwall won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 18 | Bristol City won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 17 | Bolton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 | Charlton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 15 | Watford won 2 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 15 | Lincoln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -9 | 10 | Burnley won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -16 | 10 | Derby won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -17 | 8 | Preston won 1 of the last 5 |