Wrexham v 
Middlesbrough
Match statistics
| Wrexham | Middlesbrough | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Shots | 12 |
| 4 | Shots on target | 2 |
| 3 | Corners | 2 |
| 9 | Fouls | 6 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 0 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 1 | Offsides | 3 |
| 384 | Passes | 651 |
| 38% | Possession % | 62% |
| 1.49 | xG | 0.97 |
- Over 1.5
- 83%
- Over 2.5
- 61%
- Over 3.5
- 39%
- Both score
- 63%
- Model pick
- Middlesbrough 47%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.37 – 1.80
Advised bets
Lost
Free pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Middlesbrough +0.25
Why this price?
Back Middlesbrough +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.65 with Bet365 — Middlesbrough starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 67% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 68%; we judge it at 67%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.48. The offered 1.65 implies only 61%, so the price is 11.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Wrexham 1.37, Middlesbrough 1.80.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 62.7% | 1.59 | 1.65 Betano | 60.6% | +2.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 37.3% | 2.68 | 2.38 Bet365 | 42.0% | -4.7 |
| Match result | Wrexham | 28.8% | 3.47 | 4.75 Bet365 | 21.1% | +7.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 24.1% | 4.16 | 4.30 Betano | 23.3% | +0.8 |
| Match result | Middlesbrough | 47.1% | 2.12 | 1.91 Bet365 | 52.4% | -5.2 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 82.9% | 1.21 | 1.22 Betano | 82.0% | +1.0 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 17.1% | 5.86 | 5.00 Betfair | 20.0% | -2.9 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 61.3% | 1.63 | 1.67 Betano | 59.9% | +1.4 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 38.7% | 2.58 | 2.40 Betano | 41.7% | -2.9 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 39.0% | 2.57 | 2.65 Betano | 37.7% | +1.2 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 61.0% | 1.64 | 1.55 Betano | 64.5% | -3.5 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Middlesbrough favoured against Wrexham
Our model makes Wrexham 29% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 24% and Middlesbrough at 47%. The goal projection is 1.37 for Wrexham against 1.80 for Middlesbrough — a clear edge to Middlesbrough on expected output. A combined 3.17 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 1-2 9%
- 2-1 7%
- 0-1 7%
- 0-2 7%
This season
| Wrexham | Middlesbrough | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 4-6-5 | W-D-L | 8-5-2 |
| 1.20 | Pts / game | 1.93 |
| 1.20 | Goals for / game | 2.00 |
| 1.33 | Goals against / game | 1.27 |
| 40% | Over 2.5 | 67% |
| 60% | BTTS | 67% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 13% |
| 3-3-2 | Home record | 5-2-0 |
| 1-3-3 | Away record | 3-3-2 |
| D1 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Wrexham · Middlesbrough
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 13.6 | Shots | 20.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.4 | Shots on target | 7.3 |
| 4.9 | Corners | 7.1 |
| 1.43 | Cards | 0.88 |
| 10.3 | Fouls | 8.4 |
| 47 | Possession % | 61 |
| 1.17 | xG | 2.14 |
| 7 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Conceded
| 13.0 | Shots | 10.9 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.7 | Shots on target | 2.9 |
| 4.1 | Corners | 3.6 |
| 2.43 | Cards | 1.67 |
| 9.6 | Fouls | 10.8 |
| 53 | Possession % | 39 |
| 1.19 | xG | 1.01 |
| 7 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Form comparison
| Wrexham | Metric | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Goals scored | 2.60 (better) |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded | 1.40 |
| 1.13 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.51 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.60 | Shots on target | 8.60 (better) |
| 14.20 | Total shots | 23.20 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.00 | Corners | 6.60 (better) |
| 48.6 | Possession % | 57.6 (better) |
| 411 | Passes | 507 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 9.40 (better) | Fouls | 10.20 |
| 2.40 | Offsides | 2.20 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.60 | Yellow cards | 1.00 (better) |
| Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Wrexham wins
- 1
- Draws
- 2
- Middlesbrough wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.67
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 67%
- Wrexham v Middlesbrough2–02026-11-04
- Wrexham v Middlesbrough2–22026-05-02
- Middlesbrough v Wrexham1–12025-10-25
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +14 | 29 | Birmingham won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +11 | 29 | Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +6 | 29 | Stoke City won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +14 | 28 | Southampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | Wolves won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | West Brom won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 26 | Swansea won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +6 | 24 | QPR won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +14 | 23 | West Ham won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | +8 | 21 | Norwich won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | Blackburn won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 18 | Cardiff won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 18 | Wrexham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Millwall won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 18 | Bristol City won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 17 | Bolton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 | Charlton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 15 | Watford won 2 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 15 | Lincoln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -9 | 10 | Burnley won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -16 | 10 | Derby won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -17 | 8 | Preston won 1 of the last 5 |