Blackburn v 
Stoke City
Match statistics
| Blackburn | Stoke City | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 6 | Corners | 5 |
| 12 | Fouls | 19 |
| 3 | Yellow cards | 4 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 474 | Passes | 345 |
| 58% | Possession % | 42% |
| 1.90 | xG | 0.99 |
- Over 1.5
- 70%
- Over 2.5
- 43%
- Over 3.5
- 22%
- Both score
- 49%
- Model pick
- Blackburn 40%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.30 – 1.10
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Blackburn -0.25
Why this price?
Back Blackburn -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.25 with Bet365 — Blackburn must win by more than 0.25 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 47% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 51%; we judge it at 49%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.03. The offered 2.25 implies only 44%, so the price is 10.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Blackburn 1.30, Stoke City 1.10.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Blackburn | 40.3% | 2.48 | 2.75 William Hill | 36.4% | +3.9 |
| Match result | Draw | 28.8% | 3.47 | 3.40 Betfair | 29.4% | -0.6 |
| Match result | Stoke City | 30.9% | 3.23 | 2.70 Betfair | 37.0% | -6.1 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 69.8% | 1.43 | 1.37 Betano | 73.0% | -3.2 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 30.2% | 3.31 | 3.40 Bet365 | 29.4% | +0.8 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 43.0% | 2.33 | 2.12 Betano | 47.2% | -4.2 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 57.0% | 1.75 | 1.78 Betano | 56.2% | +0.8 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 22.1% | 4.53 | 3.80 Betfair | 26.3% | -4.2 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 77.9% | 1.28 | 1.29 Betano | 77.5% | +0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 49.2% | 2.03 | 1.83 Bet365 | 54.6% | -5.5 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 50.8% | 1.97 | 2.10 Betfair | 47.6% | +3.2 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Blackburn favoured against Stoke City
Our model makes Blackburn 40% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 29% and Stoke City at 31%. The goal projection is 1.30 for Blackburn against 1.10 for Stoke City — a slight edge to Blackburn on expected output. A combined 2.40 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 43% and both teams to score at 49%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 1-0 11%
- 0-0 10%
- 0-1 9%
- 2-1 8%
This season
| Blackburn | Stoke City | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 6-3-6 | W-D-L | 9-2-4 |
| 1.40 | Pts / game | 1.93 |
| 1.47 | Goals for / game | 1.60 |
| 1.53 | Goals against / game | 1.20 |
| 80% | Over 2.5 | 67% |
| 73% | BTTS | 67% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 13% | Failed to score | 7% |
| 5-0-3 | Home record | 4-1-2 |
| 1-3-3 | Away record | 5-1-2 |
| W1 | Streak | W3 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Blackburn · Stoke City
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 10.7 | Shots | 11.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.7 | Shots on target | 3.4 |
| 6.0 | Corners | 5.6 |
| 1.71 | Cards | 2.02 |
| 11.4 | Fouls | 11.1 |
| 44 | Possession % | 49 |
| 1.05 | xG | 0.95 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 18.9 | Shots | 14.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.6 | Shots on target | 3.3 |
| 6.9 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 1.43 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 11.1 | Fouls | 12.3 |
| 56 | Possession % | 51 |
| 1.93 | xG | 1.42 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| Blackburn | Metric | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 (better) | Goals scored | 1.40 |
| 1.20 | Goals conceded | 1.00 (better) |
| 1.07 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 0.74 |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.20 (better) | Shots on target | 3.00 |
| 10.80 (better) | Total shots | 10.40 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.80 (better) | Corners | 5.00 |
| 44.0 | Possession % | 47.6 (better) |
| 343 | Passes | 388 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.40 | Fouls | 9.60 (better) |
| 2.60 | Offsides | 1.80 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 | Yellow cards | 1.40 (better) |
| Red cards | 1.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Blackburn wins
- 0
- Draws
- 2
- Stoke City wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.33
- Over 2.5
- 33%
- Both score
- 100%
- Blackburn v Stoke City1–22026-11-03
- Stoke City v Blackburn1–12026-04-11
- Blackburn v Stoke City1–12025-10-04
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +14 | 29 | Birmingham won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +11 | 29 | Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +6 | 29 | Stoke City won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +14 | 28 | Southampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | Wolves won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | West Brom won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 26 | Swansea won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +6 | 24 | QPR won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +14 | 23 | West Ham won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | +8 | 21 | Norwich won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | Blackburn won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 18 | Cardiff won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 18 | Wrexham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Millwall won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 18 | Bristol City won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 17 | Bolton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 | Charlton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 15 | Watford won 2 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 15 | Lincoln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -9 | 10 | Burnley won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -16 | 10 | Derby won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -17 | 8 | Preston won 1 of the last 5 |