Charlton v 
Bolton
Match statistics
| Charlton | Bolton | |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | Shots | 11 |
| 2 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 4 | Corners | 3 |
| 9 | Fouls | 13 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 5 | Offsides | 1 |
| 457 | Passes | 356 |
| 57% | Possession % | 43% |
| 0.93 | xG | 0.72 |
- Over 1.5
- 77%
- Over 2.5
- 52%
- Over 3.5
- 30%
- Both score
- 56%
- Model pick
- Bolton 46%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.18 – 1.57
Advised bets
WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 5 of 5Bolton 0
Why this price?
Back Bolton 0 on the Asian handicap at 2.21 with Marathonbet — Bolton to win; a draw returns the stake.
Our model puts the chance at 62% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 42%; we judge it at 50%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.00. The offered 2.21 implies only 45%, so the price is 10.7% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Charlton 1.18, Bolton 1.57.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 76.8% | 1.30 | 1.26 BetVictor | 79.4% | -2.6 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 23.2% | 4.30 | 4.33 Bet365 | 23.1% | +0.1 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 52.0% | 1.92 | 1.80 Bet365 | 55.6% | -3.5 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 48.0% | 2.08 | 2.12 Betano | 47.2% | +0.8 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 29.9% | 3.35 | 3.00 Bet365 | 33.3% | -3.5 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 70.1% | 1.43 | 1.42 Betano | 70.4% | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 55.6% | 1.80 | 1.62 Bet365 | 61.7% | -6.1 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 44.4% | 2.25 | 2.30 Betfair | 43.5% | +0.9 |
| Match result | Charlton | 28.1% | 3.56 | 2.34 Dafabet | 42.7% | -14.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 26.1% | 3.83 | 3.70 Dafabet | 27.0% | -0.9 |
| Match result | Bolton | 45.8% | 2.18 | 3.30 Betfair | 30.3% | +15.5 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Bolton favoured against Charlton
Our model makes Charlton 28% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 26% and Bolton at 46%. The goal projection is 1.18 for Charlton against 1.57 for Bolton — a clear edge to Bolton on expected output. A combined 2.76 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 0-1 9%
- 1-2 9%
- 0-2 8%
- 2-1 7%
This season
| Charlton | Bolton | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 4-5-6 | W-D-L | 5-2-8 |
| 1.13 | Pts / game | 1.13 |
| 0.87 | Goals for / game | 1.33 |
| 1.53 | Goals against / game | 1.93 |
| 53% | Over 2.5 | 67% |
| 53% | BTTS | 60% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 40% | Failed to score | 27% |
| 3-3-2 | Home record | 2-0-5 |
| 1-2-4 | Away record | 3-2-3 |
| W1 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Charlton · Bolton
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 10.0 | Shots | 15.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.9 | Shots on target | 4.8 |
| 3.9 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 2.43 | Cards | 1.71 |
| 14.0 | Fouls | 9.9 |
| 47 | Possession % | 50 |
| 1.27 | xG | 1.47 |
| 7 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Conceded
| 17.6 | Shots | 15.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.6 | Shots on target | 5.1 |
| 5.7 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 2.29 | Cards | 1.43 |
| 9.1 | Fouls | 9.5 |
| 53 | Possession % | 50 |
| 1.76 | xG | 1.96 |
| 7 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Form comparison
| Charlton | Metric | Bolton |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored | 1.80 (better) |
| 2.20 | Goals conceded | 2.20 |
| 1.43 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.66 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.60 | Shots on target | 4.60 (better) |
| 9.80 | Total shots | 15.00 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.80 | Corners | 4.00 (better) |
| 46.4 (better) | Possession % | 44.8 |
| 354 | Passes | 391 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 15.00 | Fouls | 10.40 (better) |
| 2.00 | Offsides | 1.00 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 3.00 | Yellow cards | 2.00 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Charlton wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Bolton wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 1.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- Charlton v Bolton0–12026-11-03
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +14 | 29 | Birmingham won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +11 | 29 | Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +6 | 29 | Stoke City won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +14 | 28 | Southampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | Wolves won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | West Brom won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 26 | Swansea won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +6 | 24 | QPR won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +14 | 23 | West Ham won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | +8 | 21 | Norwich won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | Blackburn won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 18 | Cardiff won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 18 | Wrexham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Millwall won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 18 | Bristol City won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 17 | Bolton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 | Charlton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 15 | Watford won 2 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 15 | Lincoln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -9 | 10 | Burnley won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -16 | 10 | Derby won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -17 | 8 | Preston won 1 of the last 5 |