Championship · Review

Championship matchweek 13 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Championship result from matchweek 13 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 31 Oct 2026, updated 1 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Championship, matchweek 13 (30–31 October 2026), is complete: twelve matches, 41 goals (3.42 a game), eight home wins, one draw and three away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in nine of the twelve and both teams scored in six.

The result the model rated least likely was West Brom's win in West Ham v West Brom (1–3), which it had at 20%; the one it rated most likely was Norwich's win in Norwich v Watford (3–2), at 63%.

After the round, Middlesbrough lead on 28 points, one point clear of Southampton, with Swansea third on 26. The bottom three are Burnley (9), Derby (7), Preston (5).

Match by match

Sheffield Utd 1–0 WrexhamFri 30 Oct, 20:00

Before kick-off the model had Sheffield Utd 45%, the draw 24% and Wrexham 32%, so Sheffield Utd winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.33–0.70: Sheffield Utd created the better chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 85%, did not come in. Picks published: Over 2.5 at 1.95 — lost; Sheffield Utd -0.25 at 2.15 — won.

Lincoln 1–3 BirminghamSat 31 Oct, 12:30

Before kick-off the model had Lincoln 41%, the draw 26% and Birmingham 33%, with Lincoln favoured; it put Birmingham winning at 33%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.63–2.09: Birmingham created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 58%, came in.

Norwich 3–2 WatfordSat 31 Oct, 12:30

Before kick-off the model had Norwich 63%, the draw 20% and Watford 17%, so Norwich winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-1. Expected goals were 1.19–1.00: an even contest on chances. The headline call, Norwich to win at 63%, came in.

Stoke City 2–0 PrestonSat 31 Oct, 12:30

Before kick-off the model had Stoke City 56%, the draw 24% and Preston 20%, so Stoke City winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.22–0.16: Stoke City created the better chances. The headline call, Stoke City to win at 56%, came in.

Bolton 2–3 Bristol CitySat 31 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Bolton 47%, the draw 27% and Bristol City 27%, with Bolton favoured; it put Bristol City winning at 27%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.28–3.16: Bristol City created the better chances. The headline call, Bolton to win at 47%, did not come in. Pick published: Bolton 0 at 2.10 — lost.

Burnley 0–0 PortsmouthSat 31 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Burnley 37%, the draw 27% and Portsmouth 37%, with Burnley favoured; it put the draw at 27%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.81–0.32: Burnley created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 57%, did not come in.

Middlesbrough 3–0 CharltonSat 31 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Middlesbrough 58%, the draw 24% and Charlton 18%, so Middlesbrough winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.69–0.42: Middlesbrough created the better chances. The headline call, Middlesbrough to win at 58%, came in.

Millwall 4–1 DerbySat 31 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Millwall 50%, the draw 26% and Derby 24%, so Millwall winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 4.16–1.26: Millwall created the better chances. The headline call, Millwall to win at 50%, came in.

Southampton 4–1 QPRSat 31 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Southampton 54%, the draw 23% and QPR 23%, so Southampton winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.25–0.78: Southampton created the better chances. The headline call, Southampton to win at 54%, came in.

Swansea 4–0 BlackburnSat 31 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Swansea 46%, the draw 29% and Blackburn 25%, so Swansea winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.37–0.38: Swansea created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 61%, did not come in. Pick published: Under 1.5 at 3.75 — lost.

West Ham 1–3 West BromSat 31 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had West Ham 58%, the draw 22% and West Brom 20%, with West Ham favoured; it put West Brom winning at 20%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.02–2.08: West Brom created the better chances. The headline call, West Ham to win at 58%, did not come in. Pick published: West Ham -0.5 at 1.57 — lost.

Wolves 3–0 CardiffSat 31 Oct, 15:00

Before kick-off the model had Wolves 37%, the draw 24% and Cardiff 39%, with Cardiff favoured; it put Wolves winning at 37%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.60–1.12: Wolves created the better chances. The headline call, over 1.5 goals at 85%, came in. Pick published: Wolves -0.75 at 1.85 — won.

The numbers this season

Championship has averaged 2.93 goals a game over 156 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 62% of them and both sides scoring in 62%. Home sides have won 42% of matches, 26% have been drawn and away sides have won 31%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.