Swansea v Blackburn

6th4–014th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Swansea		Blackburn
20	Shots	7
9	Shots on target	2
1	Corners	2
9	Fouls	16
0	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
691	Passes	346
68%	Possession %	32%
2.37	xG	0.38

Over 1.5: 67%
Over 2.5: 39%
Over 3.5: 19%
Both score: 45%

Model pick: Swansea 46%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.35 – 0.91

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Under 1.5

3.75Bet365 · fair 3.35 · qualifies at 3.49+ · 1.07u

Why this price?

Back under 1.5 goals at 3.75 with Bet365 — 1 goal or fewer in the match.

Our model puts the chance at 33% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 27%; we judge it at 30%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 3.36. The offered 3.75 implies only 27%, so the price is 11.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.07 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Swansea 1.35, Blackburn 0.91.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Swansea	46.3%	2.16	1.82 Betano	54.9%	-8.6
Match result	Draw	29.1%	3.44	3.85 Betano	26.0%	+3.1
Match result	Blackburn	24.6%	4.06	4.90 Betano	20.4%	+4.2
Total goals	Over 1.5	66.6%	1.50	1.29 Betano	77.5%	-10.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	33.4%	2.99	4.00 Bet365	25.0%	+8.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	39.3%	2.54	2.02 Betano	49.5%	-10.2
Total goals	Under 2.5	60.7%	1.65	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	+10.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	19.2%	5.20	3.40 Betano	29.4%	-10.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	80.8%	1.24	1.39 Betano	71.9%	+8.8
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	44.9%	2.23	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-8.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	55.1%	1.81	2.05 Betfair	48.8%	+6.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Swansea favoured against Blackburn

Our model makes Swansea 46% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 29% and Blackburn at 25%. The goal projection is 1.35 for Swansea against 0.91 for Blackburn — a clear edge to Swansea on expected output. A combined 2.26 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 39% and both teams to score at 45%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 13%; 0-0 11%; 2-0 10%; 0-1 9%

This season

Season records for Swansea and Blackburn
Swansea		Blackburn
14	Played	14
8-2-4	W-D-L	5-3-6
1.86	Pts / game	1.29
1.50	Goals for / game	1.43
1.14	Goals against / game	1.57
64%	Over 2.5	79%
43%	BTTS	71%
43%	Clean sheets	21%
29%	Failed to score	14%
4-2-1	Home record	4-0-3
4-0-3	Away record	1-3-3
L1	Streak	L2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Swansea · Blackburn

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.0	Shots	10.7
4.1	Shots on target	3.7
3.7	Corners	6.0
1.00	Cards	1.71
10.6	Fouls	11.4
61	Possession %	44
1.50	xG	1.05
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.6	Shots	18.9
4.1	Shots on target	4.6
4.4	Corners	6.9
1.86	Cards	1.43
10.4	Fouls	11.1
39	Possession %	56
1.44	xG	1.93
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Swansea	Metric	Blackburn
1.60	Goals scored	2.00 (better)
0.80 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
1.76 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.05
	Big chances
4.00	Shots on target	4.00
12.00 (better)	Total shots	11.20
	Touches in opp. box
2.80	Corners	6.60 (better)
59.6 (better)	Possession %	43.0
528 (better)	Passes	335
	Tackles
9.60 (better)	Fouls	10.00
2.00 (better)	Offsides	2.60
	Throw-ins
1.20 (better)	Yellow cards	2.50
	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Swansea wins: 3
Draws: 0
Blackburn wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.67
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 67%

Swansea v Blackburn4–02026-10-31
Swansea v Blackburn3–12026-01-20
Blackburn v Swansea1–22025-09-30

Championship table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Southampton	14	8	4	2	+15	28	Southampton won 3 of the last 5
2	Middlesbrough	14	8	4	2	+11	28	Middlesbrough won 3 of the last 5
3	Wolves	14	8	3	3	+8	27	Wolves won 4 of the last 5
4	Birmingham	14	7	5	2	+13	26	Birmingham won 4 of the last 5
5	Stoke City	14	8	2	4	+5	26	Stoke City won 3 of the last 5
6	Swansea	14	8	2	4	+5	26	Swansea won 2 of the last 5
7	West Brom	14	7	4	3	+5	25	West Brom won 3 of the last 5
8	West Ham	14	6	5	3	+15	23	West Ham won 2 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Utd	14	6	4	4	+3	22	Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5
10	Portsmouth	14	6	4	4	+3	22	Portsmouth won 3 of the last 5
11	QPR	14	5	6	3	+5	21	QPR won 2 of the last 5
12	Norwich	14	6	0	8	+3	18	Norwich won 3 of the last 5
13	Millwall	14	5	3	6	-1	18	Millwall won 1 of the last 5
14	Blackburn	14	5	3	6	-2	18	Blackburn won 2 of the last 5
15	Bristol City	14	5	3	6	-3	18	Bristol City won 1 of the last 5
16	Wrexham	14	4	5	5	-2	17	Wrexham won 2 of the last 5
17	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17	Bolton won 1 of the last 5
18	Cardiff	14	3	6	5	-1	15	Cardiff won 2 of the last 5
19	Lincoln	14	4	3	7	-10	15	Lincoln won 1 of the last 5
20	Watford	14	4	2	8	-10	14	Watford won 2 of the last 5
21	Charlton	14	3	5	6	-11	14	Charlton won 0 of the last 5
22	Burnley	14	1	7	6	-8	10	Burnley won 0 of the last 5
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10	Derby won 1 of the last 5
24	Preston	14	1	2	11	-18	5	Preston won 0 of the last 5