Lincoln v Birmingham

19th1–34th

12:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Lincoln		Birmingham
12	Shots	17
6	Shots on target	7
3	Corners	3
14	Fouls	9
3	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	2
401	Passes	335
54%	Possession %	46%
1.63	xG	2.09

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 54%
Over 3.5: 32%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: Lincoln 41%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.53 – 1.33

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Lincoln	41.4%	2.42	3.40 Betfair	29.4%	+12.0
Match result	Draw	26.0%	3.84	3.60 Betfair	27.8%	-1.7
Match result	Birmingham	32.6%	3.07	2.20 Betano	45.5%	-12.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.4%	1.28	1.31 Betano	76.3%	+2.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.6%	4.63	3.75 Bet365	26.7%	-5.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	54.3%	1.84	1.95 Betano	51.3%	+3.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	45.7%	2.19	1.91 Bet365	52.4%	-6.7
Total goals	Over 3.5	32.0%	3.12	3.40 Bet365	29.4%	+2.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.0%	1.47	1.35 Betano	74.1%	-6.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.1%	1.72	1.75 Betfair	57.1%	+1.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	41.9%	2.39	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	-5.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Lincoln favoured against Birmingham

Our model makes Lincoln 41% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 26% and Birmingham at 33%. The goal projection is 1.53 for Lincoln against 1.33 for Birmingham — a slight edge to Lincoln on expected output. A combined 2.85 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 8%; 1-2 8%; 0-1 7%

This season

Season records for Lincoln and Birmingham
Lincoln		Birmingham
14	Played	14
4-3-7	W-D-L	7-5-2
1.07	Pts / game	1.86
1.00	Goals for / game	1.86
1.71	Goals against / game	0.93
57%	Over 2.5	71%
50%	BTTS	57%
29%	Clean sheets	36%
29%	Failed to score	14%
1-2-4	Home record	3-4-0
3-1-3	Away record	4-1-2
L2	Streak	W2

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Lincoln · Birmingham

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.6	Shots	14.6
3.4	Shots on target	5.6
3.0	Corners	4.6
3.00	Cards	2.00
12.4	Fouls	12.0
39	Possession %	53
1.19	xG	1.67
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.4	Shots	12.9
5.5	Shots on target	3.3
6.8	Corners	3.6
2.88	Cards	1.45
12.6	Fouls	10.3
61	Possession %	47
1.66	xG	1.42
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Lincoln	Metric	Birmingham
0.80	Goals scored	2.40 (better)
2.60	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
1.03	Expected goals (xG)	2.10 (better)
	Big chances
2.60	Shots on target	6.60 (better)
9.60	Total shots	15.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
2.60	Corners	4.80 (better)
31.0	Possession %	52.6 (better)
231	Passes	446 (better)
	Tackles
13.00	Fouls	11.40 (better)
2.60	Offsides	1.40 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.80	Yellow cards	2.40 (better)
1.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Lincoln wins: 0
Draws: 0
Birmingham wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Lincoln v Birmingham1–32026-10-31

Championship table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Southampton	14	8	4	2	+15	28	Southampton won 3 of the last 5
2	Middlesbrough	14	8	4	2	+11	28	Middlesbrough won 3 of the last 5
3	Wolves	14	8	3	3	+8	27	Wolves won 4 of the last 5
4	Birmingham	14	7	5	2	+13	26	Birmingham won 4 of the last 5
5	Stoke City	14	8	2	4	+5	26	Stoke City won 3 of the last 5
6	Swansea	14	8	2	4	+5	26	Swansea won 2 of the last 5
7	West Brom	14	7	4	3	+5	25	West Brom won 3 of the last 5
8	West Ham	14	6	5	3	+15	23	West Ham won 2 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Utd	14	6	4	4	+3	22	Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5
10	Portsmouth	14	6	4	4	+3	22	Portsmouth won 3 of the last 5
11	QPR	14	5	6	3	+5	21	QPR won 2 of the last 5
12	Norwich	14	6	0	8	+3	18	Norwich won 3 of the last 5
13	Millwall	14	5	3	6	-1	18	Millwall won 1 of the last 5
14	Blackburn	14	5	3	6	-2	18	Blackburn won 2 of the last 5
15	Bristol City	14	5	3	6	-3	18	Bristol City won 1 of the last 5
16	Wrexham	14	4	5	5	-2	17	Wrexham won 2 of the last 5
17	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17	Bolton won 1 of the last 5
18	Cardiff	14	3	6	5	-1	15	Cardiff won 2 of the last 5
19	Lincoln	14	4	3	7	-10	15	Lincoln won 1 of the last 5
20	Watford	14	4	2	8	-10	14	Watford won 2 of the last 5
21	Charlton	14	3	5	6	-11	14	Charlton won 0 of the last 5
22	Burnley	14	1	7	6	-8	10	Burnley won 0 of the last 5
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10	Derby won 1 of the last 5
24	Preston	14	1	2	11	-18	5	Preston won 0 of the last 5