Millwall v Derby

13th4–123rd

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Millwall		Derby
22	Shots	13
9	Shots on target	4
4	Corners	5
9	Fouls	9
3	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
511	Passes	400
56%	Possession %	44%
4.16	xG	1.26

Over 1.5: 75%
Over 2.5: 50%
Over 3.5: 28%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: Millwall 50%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.62 – 1.06

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Millwall	49.7%	2.01	1.74 Dafabet	57.5%	-7.7
Match result	Draw	26.0%	3.85	4.00 Betano	25.0%	+1.0
Match result	Derby	24.3%	4.12	5.40 Betano	18.5%	+5.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	75.3%	1.33	1.28 Betano	78.1%	-2.8
Total goals	Under 1.5	24.7%	4.04	4.10 Betfair	24.4%	+0.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	50.0%	2.00	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-3.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	50.0%	2.00	2.10 Betfair	47.6%	+2.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	28.1%	3.56	3.20 Bet365	31.3%	-3.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	71.9%	1.39	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	+0.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	52.9%	1.89	1.82 Betano	54.9%	-2.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	47.1%	2.13	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	+0.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Millwall favoured against Derby

Our model makes Millwall 50% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 26% and Derby at 24%. The goal projection is 1.62 for Millwall against 1.06 for Derby — a substantial edge to Millwall on expected output. A combined 2.68 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 50% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-0 11%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 9%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Millwall and Derby
Millwall		Derby
14	Played	15
5-3-6	W-D-L	2-4-9
1.29	Pts / game	0.67
1.64	Goals for / game	0.93
1.71	Goals against / game	2.00
79%	Over 2.5	60%
50%	BTTS	60%
29%	Clean sheets	7%
21%	Failed to score	33%
3-2-2	Home record	1-2-5
2-1-4	Away record	1-2-4
L1	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Millwall · Derby

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.3	Shots	12.3
4.5	Shots on target	4.3
5.5	Corners	4.6
2.38	Cards	2.13
11.8	Fouls	11.5
49	Possession %	45
1.79	xG	1.06
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.9	Shots	15.4
4.1	Shots on target	6.1
6.1	Corners	5.0
2.41	Cards	1.88
10.4	Fouls	8.6
51	Possession %	55
1.26	xG	2.04
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Millwall	Metric	Derby
1.40 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
1.40 (better)	Goals conceded	1.80
1.68 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.06
	Big chances
4.80 (better)	Shots on target	4.60
13.40	Total shots	15.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
6.60 (better)	Corners	5.20
45.6	Possession %	51.6 (better)
303	Passes	401 (better)
	Tackles
12.80	Fouls	10.40 (better)
2.00 (better)	Offsides	2.60
	Throw-ins
2.60	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Millwall wins: 2
Draws: 1
Derby wins: 0
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 67%

Millwall v Derby4–12026-10-31
Millwall v Derby1–02026-03-10
Derby v Millwall1–12025-12-10

Championship table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Southampton	14	8	4	2	+15	28	Southampton won 3 of the last 5
2	Middlesbrough	14	8	4	2	+11	28	Middlesbrough won 3 of the last 5
3	Wolves	14	8	3	3	+8	27	Wolves won 4 of the last 5
4	Birmingham	14	7	5	2	+13	26	Birmingham won 4 of the last 5
5	Stoke City	14	8	2	4	+5	26	Stoke City won 3 of the last 5
6	Swansea	14	8	2	4	+5	26	Swansea won 2 of the last 5
7	West Brom	14	7	4	3	+5	25	West Brom won 3 of the last 5
8	West Ham	14	6	5	3	+15	23	West Ham won 2 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Utd	14	6	4	4	+3	22	Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5
10	Portsmouth	14	6	4	4	+3	22	Portsmouth won 3 of the last 5
11	QPR	14	5	6	3	+5	21	QPR won 2 of the last 5
12	Norwich	14	6	0	8	+3	18	Norwich won 3 of the last 5
13	Millwall	14	5	3	6	-1	18	Millwall won 1 of the last 5
14	Blackburn	14	5	3	6	-2	18	Blackburn won 2 of the last 5
15	Bristol City	14	5	3	6	-3	18	Bristol City won 1 of the last 5
16	Wrexham	14	4	5	5	-2	17	Wrexham won 2 of the last 5
17	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17	Bolton won 1 of the last 5
18	Cardiff	14	3	6	5	-1	15	Cardiff won 2 of the last 5
19	Lincoln	14	4	3	7	-10	15	Lincoln won 1 of the last 5
20	Watford	14	4	2	8	-10	14	Watford won 2 of the last 5
21	Charlton	14	3	5	6	-11	14	Charlton won 0 of the last 5
22	Burnley	14	1	7	6	-8	10	Burnley won 0 of the last 5
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10	Derby won 1 of the last 5
24	Preston	14	1	2	11	-18	5	Preston won 0 of the last 5