Middlesbrough v Charlton

2nd3–021st

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Middlesbrough		Charlton
16	Shots	7
6	Shots on target	0
8	Corners	4
7	Fouls	14
2	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	1
449	Passes	325
58%	Possession %	42%
1.69	xG	0.42

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 53%
Over 3.5: 31%
Both score: 52%

Model pick: Middlesbrough 58%
Likely score: 1-1 11%
Expected goals: 1.84 – 0.94

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Middlesbrough	58.0%	1.73	1.29 William Hill	77.5%	-19.6
Match result	Draw	23.6%	4.24	6.80 Betano	14.7%	+8.9
Match result	Charlton	18.4%	5.43	11.00 Bet365	9.1%	+9.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	77.2%	1.29	1.13 Betano	88.5%	-11.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	22.8%	4.39	7.00 BetVictor	14.3%	+8.5
Total goals	Over 2.5	52.8%	1.89	1.44 Bet365	69.4%	-16.7
Total goals	Under 2.5	47.2%	2.12	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	+13.9
Total goals	Over 3.5	30.6%	3.27	2.05 Betano	48.8%	-18.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	69.4%	1.44	1.82 Betano	54.9%	+14.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	52.0%	1.92	1.87 Betfair	53.5%	-1.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	48.0%	2.08	2.00 William Hill	50.0%	-2.0

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Middlesbrough favoured against Charlton

Our model makes Middlesbrough 58% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 24% and Charlton at 18%. The goal projection is 1.84 for Middlesbrough against 0.94 for Charlton — a substantial edge to Middlesbrough on expected output. A combined 2.79 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 52%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 11%; 1-0 11%; 2-0 10%; 2-1 10%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Middlesbrough and Charlton
Middlesbrough		Charlton
14	Played	14
8-4-2	W-D-L	3-5-6
2.00	Pts / game	1.00
2.14	Goals for / game	0.79
1.36	Goals against / game	1.57
71%	Over 2.5	50%
71%	BTTS	50%
21%	Clean sheets	21%
7%	Failed to score	43%
5-2-0	Home record	2-3-2
3-2-2	Away record	1-2-4
L1	Streak	L4

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Middlesbrough · Charlton

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
20.8	Shots	10.0
7.3	Shots on target	2.9
7.1	Corners	3.9
0.88	Cards	2.43
8.4	Fouls	14.0
61	Possession %	47
2.14	xG	1.27
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.9	Shots	17.6
2.9	Shots on target	5.6
3.6	Corners	5.7
1.67	Cards	2.29
10.8	Fouls	9.1
39	Possession %	53
1.01	xG	1.76
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Middlesbrough	Metric	Charlton
2.00 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
1.60	Goals conceded	1.60
1.98 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.46
	Big chances
7.60 (better)	Shots on target	3.60
21.40 (better)	Total shots	10.20
	Touches in opp. box
7.00 (better)	Corners	4.60
61.4 (better)	Possession %	48.4
525 (better)	Passes	373
	Tackles
9.00 (better)	Fouls	14.20
2.20	Offsides	2.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.00 (better)	Yellow cards	2.40
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Middlesbrough wins: 2
Draws: 0
Charlton wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 33%

Championship table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Southampton	14	8	4	2	+15	28	Southampton won 3 of the last 5
2	Middlesbrough	14	8	4	2	+11	28	Middlesbrough won 3 of the last 5
3	Wolves	14	8	3	3	+8	27	Wolves won 4 of the last 5
4	Birmingham	14	7	5	2	+13	26	Birmingham won 4 of the last 5
5	Stoke City	14	8	2	4	+5	26	Stoke City won 3 of the last 5
6	Swansea	14	8	2	4	+5	26	Swansea won 2 of the last 5
7	West Brom	14	7	4	3	+5	25	West Brom won 3 of the last 5
8	West Ham	14	6	5	3	+15	23	West Ham won 2 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Utd	14	6	4	4	+3	22	Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5
10	Portsmouth	14	6	4	4	+3	22	Portsmouth won 3 of the last 5
11	QPR	14	5	6	3	+5	21	QPR won 2 of the last 5
12	Norwich	14	6	0	8	+3	18	Norwich won 3 of the last 5
13	Millwall	14	5	3	6	-1	18	Millwall won 1 of the last 5
14	Blackburn	14	5	3	6	-2	18	Blackburn won 2 of the last 5
15	Bristol City	14	5	3	6	-3	18	Bristol City won 1 of the last 5
16	Wrexham	14	4	5	5	-2	17	Wrexham won 2 of the last 5
17	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17	Bolton won 1 of the last 5
18	Cardiff	14	3	6	5	-1	15	Cardiff won 2 of the last 5
19	Lincoln	14	4	3	7	-10	15	Lincoln won 1 of the last 5
20	Watford	14	4	2	8	-10	14	Watford won 2 of the last 5
21	Charlton	14	3	5	6	-11	14	Charlton won 0 of the last 5
22	Burnley	14	1	7	6	-8	10	Burnley won 0 of the last 5
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10	Derby won 1 of the last 5
24	Preston	14	1	2	11	-18	5	Preston won 0 of the last 5