Burnley v Portsmouth

22nd0–010th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Burnley		Portsmouth
18	Shots	5
4	Shots on target	0
5	Corners	2
10	Fouls	9
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
3	Offsides	3
395	Passes	364
52%	Possession %	48%
1.81	xG	0.32

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 53%
Over 3.5: 30%
Both score: 57%

Model pick: Burnley 37%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.39 – 1.39

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 2.5	52.6%	1.90	2.07 Betano	48.3%	+4.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	47.4%	2.11	1.83 Betano	54.6%	-7.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	30.4%	3.29	3.55 Betano	28.2%	+2.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	69.6%	1.44	1.31 Betano	76.3%	-6.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	57.0%	1.75	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+1.4
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	43.0%	2.33	2.15 Betfair	46.5%	-3.5
Match result	Burnley	36.7%	2.72	2.35 Betano	42.6%	-5.8
Match result	Draw	26.6%	3.76	3.50 Betfair	28.6%	-2.0
Match result	Portsmouth	36.7%	2.73	3.40 William Hill	29.4%	+7.3
Total goals	Over 1.5	77.1%	1.30	1.36 Betano	73.5%	+3.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	22.9%	4.38	3.55 Betano	28.2%	-5.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Burnley v Portsmouth: too close to call

Our model makes Burnley 37% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 27% and Portsmouth at 37%. The goal projection is 1.39 for Burnley against 1.39 for Portsmouth — almost nothing to Burnley on expected output. A combined 2.78 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 2-1 8%; 1-2 8%; 1-0 8%; 0-1 8%

This season

Season records for Burnley and Portsmouth
Burnley		Portsmouth
14	Played	14
1-7-6	W-D-L	6-4-4
0.71	Pts / game	1.57
1.29	Goals for / game	1.36
1.86	Goals against / game	1.14
64%	Over 2.5	50%
86%	BTTS	57%
14%	Clean sheets	29%
7%	Failed to score	29%
0-5-2	Home record	4-1-2
1-2-4	Away record	2-3-2
D2	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Burnley · Portsmouth

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.3	Shots	13.0
3.9	Shots on target	3.3
3.9	Corners	4.8
1.71	Cards	2.25
8.9	Fouls	11.1
46	Possession %	48
1.40	xG	1.13
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.1	Shots	10.9
5.3	Shots on target	3.0
5.3	Corners	4.6
1.00	Cards	2.04
9.3	Fouls	10.1
54	Possession %	52
1.48	xG	1.17
7 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Burnley	Metric	Portsmouth
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.40
1.60	Goals conceded	1.20 (better)
1.25	Expected goals (xG)	1.36 (better)
	Big chances
4.80 (better)	Shots on target	3.80
14.80	Total shots	15.80 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.40	Corners	5.20 (better)
47.8	Possession %	50.8 (better)
423 (better)	Passes	392
	Tackles
8.60 (better)	Fouls	11.20
4.75	Offsides	3.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.25 (better)	Yellow cards	2.60
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Burnley wins: 0
Draws: 1
Portsmouth wins: 0
Goals / game: 0.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Burnley v Portsmouth0–02026-10-31

Championship table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Southampton	14	8	4	2	+15	28	Southampton won 3 of the last 5
2	Middlesbrough	14	8	4	2	+11	28	Middlesbrough won 3 of the last 5
3	Wolves	14	8	3	3	+8	27	Wolves won 4 of the last 5
4	Birmingham	14	7	5	2	+13	26	Birmingham won 4 of the last 5
5	Stoke City	14	8	2	4	+5	26	Stoke City won 3 of the last 5
6	Swansea	14	8	2	4	+5	26	Swansea won 2 of the last 5
7	West Brom	14	7	4	3	+5	25	West Brom won 3 of the last 5
8	West Ham	14	6	5	3	+15	23	West Ham won 2 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Utd	14	6	4	4	+3	22	Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5
10	Portsmouth	14	6	4	4	+3	22	Portsmouth won 3 of the last 5
11	QPR	14	5	6	3	+5	21	QPR won 2 of the last 5
12	Norwich	14	6	0	8	+3	18	Norwich won 3 of the last 5
13	Millwall	14	5	3	6	-1	18	Millwall won 1 of the last 5
14	Blackburn	14	5	3	6	-2	18	Blackburn won 2 of the last 5
15	Bristol City	14	5	3	6	-3	18	Bristol City won 1 of the last 5
16	Wrexham	14	4	5	5	-2	17	Wrexham won 2 of the last 5
17	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17	Bolton won 1 of the last 5
18	Cardiff	14	3	6	5	-1	15	Cardiff won 2 of the last 5
19	Lincoln	14	4	3	7	-10	15	Lincoln won 1 of the last 5
20	Watford	14	4	2	8	-10	14	Watford won 2 of the last 5
21	Charlton	14	3	5	6	-11	14	Charlton won 0 of the last 5
22	Burnley	14	1	7	6	-8	10	Burnley won 0 of the last 5
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10	Derby won 1 of the last 5
24	Preston	14	1	2	11	-18	5	Preston won 0 of the last 5