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Championship predictions: matchweek 13 (30–31 October 2026)

Every Championship match in matchweek 13 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 23 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Championship, matchweek 13: twelve matches, played across 30–31 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Norwich, 63% to beat Watford at home; the most evenly balanced game is Burnley v Portsmouth (Burnley 37%, draw 27%, Portsmouth 37%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Norwich v Watford, at 3.40; the tightest looks Swansea v Blackburn, at 2.26.

Going into the round, Swansea lead on 23 points, one point clear of West Ham, with Middlesbrough third on 22. The bottom three are Burnley (8), Derby (6), Preston (4).

The numbers this season

Championship has averaged 2.88 goals a game over 132 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 61% of them and both sides scoring in 64%. Home sides have won 39% of matches, 28% have been drawn and away sides have won 33%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Sheffield Utd v WrexhamFri 30 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Sheffield Utd 45%, the draw 24% and Wrexham 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.35 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 85%. Sheffield Utd are 11th on 15 points from 11; Wrexham are 14th on 14 points from 11. Sheffield Utd have won two of their last five; Wrexham have won two of their last five. Wrexham have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Lincoln v BirminghamSat 31 Oct, 12:30

Our model makes Lincoln 41%, the draw 26% and Birmingham 33%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.85 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is both teams to score at 58%. Lincoln are 18th on 12 points from 11; Birmingham are 5th on 20 points from 11. Lincoln have won one of their last five; Birmingham are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw).

Norwich v WatfordSat 31 Oct, 12:30

Our model makes Norwich 63%, the draw 20% and Watford 17%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (10%), 3.40 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is Norwich to win at 63%. Norwich are 21st on 9 points from 11; Watford are 20th on 11 points from 11. Norwich have lost all of their last five; Watford have won one of their last five. Watford have won two of the sides' last three meetings.

Stoke City v PrestonSat 31 Oct, 12:30

Our model makes Stoke City 56%, the draw 24% and Preston 20%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.79 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Stoke City to win at 56%. Stoke City are 7th on 19 points from 11; Preston are 24th on 4 points from 11. Stoke City have won four of their last five; Preston are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Bolton v Bristol CitySat 31 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Bolton 47%, the draw 27% and Bristol City 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.64 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Bolton to win at 47%. Bolton are 15th on 14 points from 11; Bristol City are 16th on 14 points from 11. Bolton have won three of their last five; Bristol City have won one of their last five.

Burnley v PortsmouthSat 31 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Burnley 37%, the draw 27% and Portsmouth 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.78 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is both teams to score at 57%. Burnley are 22nd on 8 points from 11; Portsmouth are 13th on 15 points from 11. Burnley have won one of their last five; Portsmouth have won two of their last five.

Middlesbrough v CharltonSat 31 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Middlesbrough 58%, the draw 24% and Charlton 18%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.79 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is Middlesbrough to win at 58%. Middlesbrough are 3rd on 22 points from 11; Charlton are 17th on 14 points from 11. Middlesbrough are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws); Charlton are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats). The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Middlesbrough wins, draws and Charlton wins.

Millwall v DerbySat 31 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Millwall 50%, the draw 26% and Derby 24%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.68 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Millwall to win at 50%. Millwall are 12th on 15 points from 11; Derby are 23rd on 6 points from 11. Millwall have won one of their last five; Derby are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Southampton v QPRSat 31 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Southampton 54%, the draw 23% and QPR 23%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.14 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is Southampton to win at 54%. Southampton are 4th on 21 points from 11; QPR are 9th on 17 points from 11. Southampton have won three of their last five; QPR have won one of their last five. Southampton have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Swansea v BlackburnSat 31 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Swansea 46%, the draw 29% and Blackburn 25%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.26 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 45%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 61%. Swansea are 1st on 23 points from 11; Blackburn are 10th on 15 points from 11. Swansea have won four of their last five; Blackburn have won three of their last five. Swansea have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

West Ham v West BromSat 31 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes West Ham 58%, the draw 22% and West Brom 20%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.10 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is West Ham to win at 58%. West Ham are 2nd on 22 points from 11; West Brom are 6th on 20 points from 11. West Ham are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); West Brom have won two of their last five.

Wolves v CardiffSat 31 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Wolves 37%, the draw 24% and Cardiff 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.32 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 85%. Wolves are 8th on 18 points from 11; Cardiff are 19th on 11 points from 11. Wolves have won two of their last five; Cardiff have won two of their last five.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

A pick is published only where the best available price stands clear of the model's probability and the market's consensus together; most fixtures get none. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.