Wolves v Cardiff

3rd3–018th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Wolves		Cardiff
13	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	9
3	Corners	5
20	Fouls	8
4	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
303	Passes	497
39%	Possession %	61%
1.60	xG	1.12

Over 1.5: 85%
Over 2.5: 64%
Over 3.5: 42%
Both score: 66%

Model pick: Cardiff 39%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 1.65 – 1.67

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Wolves -0.75

1.85Bet365 · fair 1.73 · qualifies at 1.78+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Wolves -0.75 on the Asian handicap at 1.85 with Bet365 — Wolves must win by more than 0.75 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 31% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 76%; we judge it at 58%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.73. The offered 1.85 implies only 54%, so the price is 6.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Wolves 1.65, Cardiff 1.67.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Wolves	37.4%	2.67	1.72 Betano	58.1%	-20.7
Match result	Draw	23.9%	4.18	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	+1.7
Match result	Cardiff	38.6%	2.59	5.00 Betano	20.0%	+18.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	84.9%	1.18	1.15 Betano	87.0%	-2.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	15.1%	6.62	6.00 Betfair	16.7%	-1.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	64.5%	1.55	1.52 Betano	65.8%	-1.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	35.5%	2.81	2.75 Bet365	36.4%	-0.8
Total goals	Over 3.5	42.4%	2.36	2.22 Betano	45.0%	-2.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	57.6%	1.74	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	-0.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	66.1%	1.51	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	+0.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	33.9%	2.95	2.55 BetVictor	39.2%	-5.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Wolves v Cardiff: too close to call

Our model makes Wolves 37% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 24% and Cardiff at 39%. The goal projection is 1.65 for Wolves against 1.67 for Cardiff — almost nothing to Cardiff on expected output. A combined 3.32 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 64% and both teams to score at 66%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 1-2 8%; 2-1 8%; 2-2 7%; 0-1 6%

This season

Season records for Wolves and Cardiff
Wolves		Cardiff
14	Played	14
8-3-3	W-D-L	3-6-5
1.93	Pts / game	1.07
1.79	Goals for / game	1.57
1.21	Goals against / game	1.64
64%	Over 2.5	64%
64%	BTTS	71%
29%	Clean sheets	7%
7%	Failed to score	21%
4-2-1	Home record	3-4-0
4-1-2	Away record	0-2-5
W3	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Wolves · Cardiff

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.9	Shots	14.6
4.5	Shots on target	5.6
7.1	Corners	4.9
2.50	Cards	1.74
12.8	Fouls	9.3
54	Possession %	54
1.65	xG	1.86
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.5	Shots	15.9
3.9	Shots on target	6.1
3.5	Corners	5.1
2.38	Cards	2.43
10.5	Fouls	13.6
46	Possession %	46
0.93	xG	1.79
8 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Wolves	Metric	Cardiff
1.00	Goals scored	2.20 (better)
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
1.57	Expected goals (xG)	2.00 (better)
	Big chances
4.20	Shots on target	6.40 (better)
16.20	Total shots	16.60 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
7.00 (better)	Corners	6.40
53.0	Possession %	56.2 (better)
454	Passes	464 (better)
	Tackles
12.20	Fouls	10.20 (better)
2.80 (better)	Offsides	3.20
	Throw-ins
2.20	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
0.00 (better)	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Wolves wins: 1
Draws: 0
Cardiff wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 0%

Wolves v Cardiff3–02026-10-31

Championship table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Southampton	14	8	4	2	+15	28	Southampton won 3 of the last 5
2	Middlesbrough	14	8	4	2	+11	28	Middlesbrough won 3 of the last 5
3	Wolves	14	8	3	3	+8	27	Wolves won 4 of the last 5
4	Birmingham	14	7	5	2	+13	26	Birmingham won 4 of the last 5
5	Stoke City	14	8	2	4	+5	26	Stoke City won 3 of the last 5
6	Swansea	14	8	2	4	+5	26	Swansea won 2 of the last 5
7	West Brom	14	7	4	3	+5	25	West Brom won 3 of the last 5
8	West Ham	14	6	5	3	+15	23	West Ham won 2 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Utd	14	6	4	4	+3	22	Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5
10	Portsmouth	14	6	4	4	+3	22	Portsmouth won 3 of the last 5
11	QPR	14	5	6	3	+5	21	QPR won 2 of the last 5
12	Norwich	14	6	0	8	+3	18	Norwich won 3 of the last 5
13	Millwall	14	5	3	6	-1	18	Millwall won 1 of the last 5
14	Blackburn	14	5	3	6	-2	18	Blackburn won 2 of the last 5
15	Bristol City	14	5	3	6	-3	18	Bristol City won 1 of the last 5
16	Wrexham	14	4	5	5	-2	17	Wrexham won 2 of the last 5
17	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17	Bolton won 1 of the last 5
18	Cardiff	14	3	6	5	-1	15	Cardiff won 2 of the last 5
19	Lincoln	14	4	3	7	-10	15	Lincoln won 1 of the last 5
20	Watford	14	4	2	8	-10	14	Watford won 2 of the last 5
21	Charlton	14	3	5	6	-11	14	Charlton won 0 of the last 5
22	Burnley	14	1	7	6	-8	10	Burnley won 0 of the last 5
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10	Derby won 1 of the last 5
24	Preston	14	1	2	11	-18	5	Preston won 0 of the last 5