West Ham v West Brom

8th1–37th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
West Ham		West Brom
14	Shots	12
5	Shots on target	3
8	Corners	6
13	Fouls	9
3	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
458	Passes	377
55%	Possession %	45%
1.02	xG	2.08

Over 1.5: 82%
Over 2.5: 60%
Over 3.5: 38%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: West Ham 58%
Likely score: 1-1 10%
Expected goals: 2.01 – 1.09

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

West Ham -0.5

1.57Betano · fair 1.42 · qualifies at 1.46+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back West Ham -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.57 with Betano — West Ham must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 58% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 79%; we judge it at 70%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.42. The offered 1.57 implies only 64%, so the price is 10.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: West Ham 2.01, West Brom 1.09.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Total goals	Over 1.5	82.1%	1.22	1.22 BetVictor	82.0%	+0.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	17.9%	5.58	5.00 Betfair	20.0%	-2.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	60.0%	1.67	1.67 Bet365	59.9%	+0.1
Total goals	Under 2.5	40.0%	2.50	2.32 Betano	43.1%	-3.1
Total goals	Over 3.5	37.6%	2.66	2.63 Betfair	38.0%	-0.4
Total goals	Under 3.5	62.4%	1.60	1.53 Bet365	65.4%	-3.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.0%	1.72	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	+0.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.0%	2.38	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	-3.5
Match result	West Ham	58.2%	1.72	1.72 Betano	58.1%	+0.1
Match result	Draw	22.2%	4.50	4.40 Betfair	22.7%	-0.5
Match result	West Brom	19.5%	5.13	5.60 Dafabet	17.9%	+1.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

West Ham favoured against West Brom

Our model makes West Ham 58% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 22% and West Brom at 20%. The goal projection is 2.01 for West Ham against 1.09 for West Brom — a commanding edge to West Ham on expected output. A combined 3.10 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 10%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 9%; 1-0 9%; 3-1 7%

This season

Season records for West Ham and West Brom
West Ham		West Brom
14	Played	14
6-5-3	W-D-L	7-4-3
1.64	Pts / game	1.79
2.57	Goals for / game	1.43
1.50	Goals against / game	1.07
79%	Over 2.5	43%
71%	BTTS	71%
29%	Clean sheets	14%
0%	Failed to score	14%
3-1-3	Home record	3-3-1
3-4-0	Away record	4-1-2
D1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. West Ham · West Brom

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
18.3	Shots	14.9
7.6	Shots on target	3.4
7.9	Corners	6.7
2.57	Cards	1.57
12.7	Fouls	10.0
59	Possession %	57
1.86	xG	2.02
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
10.9	Shots	13.0
3.4	Shots on target	4.4
4.1	Corners	6.1
1.43	Cards	2.00
9.6	Fouls	13.3
41	Possession %	43
1.47	xG	1.36
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
West Ham	Metric	West Brom
2.40 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.20	Goals conceded	1.20
1.92 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.44
	Big chances
6.00 (better)	Shots on target	3.20
15.80 (better)	Total shots	13.40
	Touches in opp. box
6.40	Corners	6.80 (better)
57.2	Possession %	58.8 (better)
467	Passes	523 (better)
	Tackles
11.20	Fouls	10.40 (better)
2.80	Offsides	0.60 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.00	Yellow cards	1.60 (better)
0.33	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

West Ham wins: 0
Draws: 0
West Brom wins: 1
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

West Ham v West Brom1–32026-10-31

Championship table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Southampton	14	8	4	2	+15	28	Southampton won 3 of the last 5
2	Middlesbrough	14	8	4	2	+11	28	Middlesbrough won 3 of the last 5
3	Wolves	14	8	3	3	+8	27	Wolves won 4 of the last 5
4	Birmingham	14	7	5	2	+13	26	Birmingham won 4 of the last 5
5	Stoke City	14	8	2	4	+5	26	Stoke City won 3 of the last 5
6	Swansea	14	8	2	4	+5	26	Swansea won 2 of the last 5
7	West Brom	14	7	4	3	+5	25	West Brom won 3 of the last 5
8	West Ham	14	6	5	3	+15	23	West Ham won 2 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Utd	14	6	4	4	+3	22	Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5
10	Portsmouth	14	6	4	4	+3	22	Portsmouth won 3 of the last 5
11	QPR	14	5	6	3	+5	21	QPR won 2 of the last 5
12	Norwich	14	6	0	8	+3	18	Norwich won 3 of the last 5
13	Millwall	14	5	3	6	-1	18	Millwall won 1 of the last 5
14	Blackburn	14	5	3	6	-2	18	Blackburn won 2 of the last 5
15	Bristol City	14	5	3	6	-3	18	Bristol City won 1 of the last 5
16	Wrexham	14	4	5	5	-2	17	Wrexham won 2 of the last 5
17	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17	Bolton won 1 of the last 5
18	Cardiff	14	3	6	5	-1	15	Cardiff won 2 of the last 5
19	Lincoln	14	4	3	7	-10	15	Lincoln won 1 of the last 5
20	Watford	14	4	2	8	-10	14	Watford won 2 of the last 5
21	Charlton	14	3	5	6	-11	14	Charlton won 0 of the last 5
22	Burnley	14	1	7	6	-8	10	Burnley won 0 of the last 5
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10	Derby won 1 of the last 5
24	Preston	14	1	2	11	-18	5	Preston won 0 of the last 5