Norwich v Watford

12th3–220th

12:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Norwich		Watford
15	Shots	8
5	Shots on target	5
9	Corners	2
12	Fouls	9
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	1
509	Passes	355
59%	Possession %	41%
1.19	xG	1.00

Over 1.5: 86%
Over 2.5: 66%
Over 3.5: 44%
Both score: 61%

Model pick: Norwich 63%
Likely score: 2-1 10%
Expected goals: 2.29 – 1.12

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Norwich	63.2%	1.58	1.55 William Hill	64.5%	-1.3
Match result	Draw	19.9%	5.02	4.80 Betano	20.8%	-0.9
Match result	Watford	16.9%	5.91	6.50 Bet365	15.4%	+1.5
Total goals	Over 1.5	85.8%	1.17	1.19 Betano	84.0%	+1.7
Total goals	Under 1.5	14.2%	7.03	5.50 Betfair	18.2%	-3.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	66.1%	1.51	1.57 Bet365	63.7%	+2.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	33.9%	2.95	2.47 Betano	40.5%	-6.6
Total goals	Over 3.5	44.2%	2.26	2.42 Betano	41.3%	+2.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	55.8%	1.79	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-5.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	60.9%	1.64	1.70 Betano	58.8%	+2.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	39.1%	2.55	2.25 Betfair	44.4%	-5.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Norwich favoured against Watford

Our model makes Norwich 63% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 20% and Watford at 17%. The goal projection is 2.29 for Norwich against 1.12 for Watford — a commanding edge to Norwich on expected output. A combined 3.40 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Norwich is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 37% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 2-1 10%; 1-1 9%; 2-0 9%; 3-1 7%; 1-0 7%

This season

Season records for Norwich and Watford
Norwich		Watford
14	Played	14
6-0-8	W-D-L	4-2-8
1.29	Pts / game	1.00
1.93	Goals for / game	0.93
1.71	Goals against / game	1.64
79%	Over 2.5	43%
64%	BTTS	50%
7%	Clean sheets	14%
29%	Failed to score	36%
3-0-4	Home record	4-1-2
3-0-4	Away record	0-1-6
W3	Streak	W1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Norwich · Watford

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.3	Shots	12.9
4.7	Shots on target	4.1
4.7	Corners	3.9
1.50	Cards	3.00
10.9	Fouls	11.7
54	Possession %	49
1.11	xG	1.14
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
9.6	Shots	17.3
4.1	Shots on target	5.3
2.6	Corners	6.0
1.83	Cards	2.14
11.0	Fouls	12.6
46	Possession %	51
1.34	xG	1.80
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Norwich	Metric	Watford
0.80	Goals scored	0.80
2.60	Goals conceded	2.40 (better)
0.73	Expected goals (xG)	1.18 (better)
	Big chances
3.00	Shots on target	4.80 (better)
9.40	Total shots	13.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.00	Corners	4.20 (better)
48.6	Possession %	50.0 (better)
420 (better)	Passes	408
	Tackles
10.60 (better)	Fouls	11.80
4.00	Offsides	1.20 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.75 (better)	Yellow cards	3.50
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Norwich wins: 2
Draws: 0
Watford wins: 2
Goals / game: 3.50
Over 2.5: 75%
Both score: 75%

Norwich v Watford3–22026-10-31
Norwich v Watford0–12025-12-29
Watford v Norwich3–22025-12-06
Watford v Norwich1–22025-08-12

Championship table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Southampton	14	8	4	2	+15	28	Southampton won 3 of the last 5
2	Middlesbrough	14	8	4	2	+11	28	Middlesbrough won 3 of the last 5
3	Wolves	14	8	3	3	+8	27	Wolves won 4 of the last 5
4	Birmingham	14	7	5	2	+13	26	Birmingham won 4 of the last 5
5	Stoke City	14	8	2	4	+5	26	Stoke City won 3 of the last 5
6	Swansea	14	8	2	4	+5	26	Swansea won 2 of the last 5
7	West Brom	14	7	4	3	+5	25	West Brom won 3 of the last 5
8	West Ham	14	6	5	3	+15	23	West Ham won 2 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Utd	14	6	4	4	+3	22	Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5
10	Portsmouth	14	6	4	4	+3	22	Portsmouth won 3 of the last 5
11	QPR	14	5	6	3	+5	21	QPR won 2 of the last 5
12	Norwich	14	6	0	8	+3	18	Norwich won 3 of the last 5
13	Millwall	14	5	3	6	-1	18	Millwall won 1 of the last 5
14	Blackburn	14	5	3	6	-2	18	Blackburn won 2 of the last 5
15	Bristol City	14	5	3	6	-3	18	Bristol City won 1 of the last 5
16	Wrexham	14	4	5	5	-2	17	Wrexham won 2 of the last 5
17	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17	Bolton won 1 of the last 5
18	Cardiff	14	3	6	5	-1	15	Cardiff won 2 of the last 5
19	Lincoln	14	4	3	7	-10	15	Lincoln won 1 of the last 5
20	Watford	14	4	2	8	-10	14	Watford won 2 of the last 5
21	Charlton	14	3	5	6	-11	14	Charlton won 0 of the last 5
22	Burnley	14	1	7	6	-8	10	Burnley won 0 of the last 5
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10	Derby won 1 of the last 5
24	Preston	14	1	2	11	-18	5	Preston won 0 of the last 5