Bolton v Bristol City

17th2–315th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Bolton		Bristol City
19	Shots	14
6	Shots on target	9
11	Corners	4
5	Fouls	7
1	Yellow cards	1
0	Red cards	0
2	Offsides	5
589	Passes	322
65%	Possession %	35%
1.28	xG	3.16

Over 1.5: 75%
Over 2.5: 49%
Over 3.5: 27%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: Bolton 47%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.54 – 1.10

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Bolton 0

2.10Bet365 · fair 1.88 · qualifies at 1.94+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Bolton 0 on the Asian handicap at 2.10 with Bet365 — Bolton to win; a draw returns the stake.

Our model puts the chance at 64% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 46%; we judge it at 53%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.88. The offered 2.10 implies only 48%, so the price is 11.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Bolton 1.54, Bristol City 1.10.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	53.0%	1.89	1.65 Betano	60.6%	-7.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	47.0%	2.13	2.30 BetVictor	43.5%	+3.5
Match result	Bolton	46.6%	2.14	3.10 Bet365	32.3%	+14.4
Match result	Draw	26.7%	3.75	3.60 Dafabet	27.8%	-1.1
Match result	Bristol City	26.7%	3.75	2.45 Betfair	40.8%	-14.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	74.6%	1.34	1.27 Betano	78.7%	-4.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	25.4%	3.94	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	+2.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	49.1%	2.04	1.83 Betano	54.6%	-5.5
Total goals	Under 2.5	50.9%	1.97	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	+3.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	27.2%	3.67	3.05 Betano	32.8%	-5.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	72.8%	1.37	1.42 Betano	70.4%	+2.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Bolton favoured against Bristol City

Our model makes Bolton 47% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 27% and Bristol City at 27%. The goal projection is 1.54 for Bolton against 1.10 for Bristol City — a clear edge to Bolton on expected output. A combined 2.64 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 49% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-0 10%; 2-1 9%; 2-0 8%; 0-0 8%

This season

Season records for Bolton and Bristol City
Bolton		Bristol City
15	Played	14
5-2-8	W-D-L	5-3-6
1.13	Pts / game	1.29
1.33	Goals for / game	1.14
1.93	Goals against / game	1.36
67%	Over 2.5	50%
60%	BTTS	57%
27%	Clean sheets	14%
27%	Failed to score	36%
2-0-5	Home record	2-0-5
3-2-3	Away record	3-3-1
L1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Bolton · Bristol City

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
15.3	Shots	12.8
4.8	Shots on target	4.3
5.0	Corners	5.6
1.71	Cards	1.38
9.9	Fouls	10.9
50	Possession %	46
1.47	xG	1.48
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.0	Shots	12.1
5.1	Shots on target	3.4
5.8	Corners	5.6
1.43	Cards	2.00
9.5	Fouls	10.6
50	Possession %	54
1.96	xG	1.17
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Bolton	Metric	Bristol City
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	0.80
1.20	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
1.51 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.41
	Big chances
4.80 (better)	Shots on target	4.50
14.00	Total shots	14.25 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.00	Corners	5.00 (better)
45.4	Possession %	48.0 (better)
385 (better)	Passes	360
	Tackles
11.80	Fouls	11.50 (better)
1.60 (better)	Offsides	2.00
	Throw-ins
3.00	Yellow cards	1.33 (better)
0.00	Red cards

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Bolton wins: 0
Draws: 0
Bristol City wins: 1
Goals / game: 5.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Bolton v Bristol City2–32026-10-31

Championship table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Southampton	14	8	4	2	+15	28	Southampton won 3 of the last 5
2	Middlesbrough	14	8	4	2	+11	28	Middlesbrough won 3 of the last 5
3	Wolves	14	8	3	3	+8	27	Wolves won 4 of the last 5
4	Birmingham	14	7	5	2	+13	26	Birmingham won 4 of the last 5
5	Stoke City	14	8	2	4	+5	26	Stoke City won 3 of the last 5
6	Swansea	14	8	2	4	+5	26	Swansea won 2 of the last 5
7	West Brom	14	7	4	3	+5	25	West Brom won 3 of the last 5
8	West Ham	14	6	5	3	+15	23	West Ham won 2 of the last 5
9	Sheffield Utd	14	6	4	4	+3	22	Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5
10	Portsmouth	14	6	4	4	+3	22	Portsmouth won 3 of the last 5
11	QPR	14	5	6	3	+5	21	QPR won 2 of the last 5
12	Norwich	14	6	0	8	+3	18	Norwich won 3 of the last 5
13	Millwall	14	5	3	6	-1	18	Millwall won 1 of the last 5
14	Blackburn	14	5	3	6	-2	18	Blackburn won 2 of the last 5
15	Bristol City	14	5	3	6	-3	18	Bristol City won 1 of the last 5
16	Wrexham	14	4	5	5	-2	17	Wrexham won 2 of the last 5
17	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17	Bolton won 1 of the last 5
18	Cardiff	14	3	6	5	-1	15	Cardiff won 2 of the last 5
19	Lincoln	14	4	3	7	-10	15	Lincoln won 1 of the last 5
20	Watford	14	4	2	8	-10	14	Watford won 2 of the last 5
21	Charlton	14	3	5	6	-11	14	Charlton won 0 of the last 5
22	Burnley	14	1	7	6	-8	10	Burnley won 0 of the last 5
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10	Derby won 1 of the last 5
24	Preston	14	1	2	11	-18	5	Preston won 0 of the last 5