Bristol City v 
Wolves
Match statistics
| Bristol City | Wolves | |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots | 17 |
| 3 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 2 | Corners | 5 |
| 8 | Fouls | 9 |
| 2 | Yellow cards | 1 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 2 | Offsides | 0 |
| 340 | Passes | 555 |
| 38% | Possession % | 62% |
| 0.73 | xG | 2.23 |
- Over 1.5
- 73%
- Over 2.5
- 48%
- Over 3.5
- 26%
- Both score
- 53%
- Model pick
- Wolves 40%
- Likely score
- 1-1 13%
- Expected goals
- 1.20 – 1.38
Advised bets
LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 4 of 5Bristol City -0.25
Why this price?
Back Bristol City -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.84 with BetVictor — Bristol City must win by more than 0.25 goals.
Our model puts the chance at 37% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 38%; we judge it at 38%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.65. The offered 2.84 implies only 35%, so the price is 7.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 0.96 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: Bristol City 1.20, Wolves 1.38.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | Bristol City | 31.9% | 3.14 | 3.65 Betano | 27.4% | +4.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 27.7% | 3.62 | 3.55 Dafabet | 28.2% | -0.5 |
| Match result | Wolves | 40.5% | 2.47 | 2.23 Dafabet | 44.8% | -4.4 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 73.4% | 1.36 | 1.31 Betano | 76.3% | -2.9 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 26.6% | 3.76 | 3.80 Betfair | 26.3% | +0.3 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 47.5% | 2.10 | 1.93 Betano | 51.8% | -4.3 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 52.5% | 1.91 | 1.95 Betano | 51.3% | +1.2 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 25.9% | 3.87 | 3.40 Bet365 | 29.4% | -3.6 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 74.1% | 1.35 | 1.36 Bet365 | 73.5% | +0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 52.8% | 1.89 | 1.75 Betano | 57.1% | -4.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 47.2% | 2.12 | 2.10 Bet365 | 47.6% | -0.4 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Wolves favoured against Bristol City
Our model makes Bristol City 32% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 28% and Wolves at 40%. The goal projection is 1.20 for Bristol City against 1.38 for Wolves — a slight edge to Wolves on expected output. A combined 2.58 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 48% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 13%
- 0-1 10%
- 1-2 9%
- 1-0 8%
- 0-0 8%
This season
| Bristol City | Wolves | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 5-3-7 | W-D-L | 8-4-3 |
| 1.20 | Pts / game | 1.87 |
| 1.07 | Goals for / game | 1.73 |
| 1.60 | Goals against / game | 1.20 |
| 53% | Over 2.5 | 60% |
| 53% | BTTS | 67% |
| 13% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 40% | Failed to score | 7% |
| 2-0-6 | Home record | 4-2-1 |
| 3-3-1 | Away record | 4-2-2 |
| L2 | Streak | D1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Bristol City · Wolves
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.8 | Shots | 16.9 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.3 | Shots on target | 4.5 |
| 5.6 | Corners | 7.1 |
| 1.38 | Cards | 2.50 |
| 10.9 | Fouls | 12.8 |
| 46 | Possession % | 54 |
| 1.48 | xG | 1.65 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Conceded
| 12.1 | Shots | 9.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.4 | Shots on target | 3.9 |
| 5.6 | Corners | 3.5 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 2.38 |
| 10.6 | Fouls | 10.5 |
| 54 | Possession % | 46 |
| 1.17 | xG | 0.93 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Form comparison
| Bristol City | Metric | Wolves |
|---|---|---|
| 0.60 | Goals scored | 1.00 (better) |
| 0.60 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.20 |
| 1.22 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.54 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 2.75 | Shots on target | 3.60 (better) |
| 12.00 | Total shots | 18.00 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 6.00 | Corners | 8.20 (better) |
| 48.3 | Possession % | 56.4 (better) |
| 376 | Passes | 482 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 12.00 | Fouls | 11.00 (better) |
| 1.50 (better) | Offsides | 2.60 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.33 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.80 |
| Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Bristol City wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Wolves wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Bristol City v Wolves1–22026-11-04
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +14 | 29 | Birmingham won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +11 | 29 | Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +6 | 29 | Stoke City won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +14 | 28 | Southampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | Wolves won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | West Brom won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 26 | Swansea won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +6 | 24 | QPR won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +14 | 23 | West Ham won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | +8 | 21 | Norwich won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | Blackburn won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 18 | Cardiff won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 18 | Wrexham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Millwall won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 18 | Bristol City won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 17 | Bolton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 | Charlton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 15 | Watford won 2 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 15 | Lincoln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -9 | 10 | Burnley won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -16 | 10 | Derby won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -17 | 8 | Preston won 1 of the last 5 |