QPR v 
Burnley
Match statistics
| QPR | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|
| 20 | Shots | 4 |
| 5 | Shots on target | 1 |
| 8 | Corners | 1 |
| 5 | Fouls | 7 |
| 1 | Yellow cards | 2 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 3 | Offsides | 4 |
| 546 | Passes | 408 |
| 58% | Possession % | 42% |
| 1.80 | xG | 0.17 |
- Over 1.5
- 82%
- Over 2.5
- 60%
- Over 3.5
- 38%
- Both score
- 61%
- Model pick
- QPR 51%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.86 – 1.25
Advised bets
Half wonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.
★ Members’ pick
Edge strength 3 of 5Burnley +0.25
Why this price?
Back Burnley +0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.54 with Marathonbet — Burnley starts 0.25 goals ahead, so a narrow defeat can still win the bet.
Our model puts the chance at 42% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 42%; we judge it at 42%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.39. The offered 2.54 implies only 39%, so the price is 6.1% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.
Stake 1.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.
Projected goals: QPR 1.86, Burnley 1.25.
The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.
Our probabilities against the market
| Market | Selection | Ours | Fair | Best price | Implied | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Match result | QPR | 51.1% | 1.96 | 2.10 Bet365 | 47.6% | +3.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 23.7% | 4.21 | 3.80 Betano | 26.3% | -2.6 |
| Match result | Burnley | 25.2% | 3.97 | 3.90 Bet365 | 25.6% | -0.4 |
| Total goals | Over 1.5 | 82.1% | 1.22 | 1.24 BetVictor | 80.6% | +1.5 |
| Total goals | Under 1.5 | 17.9% | 5.59 | 4.50 Betfair | 22.2% | -4.3 |
| Total goals | Over 2.5 | 60.0% | 1.67 | 1.73 Bet365 | 57.8% | +2.2 |
| Total goals | Under 2.5 | 40.0% | 2.50 | 2.20 Betfair | 45.5% | -5.5 |
| Total goals | Over 3.5 | 37.6% | 2.66 | 2.80 Betfair | 35.7% | +1.9 |
| Total goals | Under 3.5 | 62.4% | 1.60 | 1.50 Bet365 | 66.7% | -4.3 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — Yes | 60.7% | 1.65 | 1.67 Bet365 | 59.9% | +0.8 |
| Both teams to score | Both teams to score — No | 39.3% | 2.54 | 2.38 Bet365 | 42.0% | -2.7 |
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
QPR favoured against Burnley
Our model makes QPR 51% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 24% and Burnley at 25%. The goal projection is 1.86 for QPR against 1.25 for Burnley — a substantial edge to QPR on expected output. A combined 3.11 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 61%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 2-1 10%
- 1-0 8%
- 2-0 8%
- 1-2 6%
This season
| QPR | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 6-6-3 | W-D-L | 1-7-7 |
| 1.60 | Pts / game | 0.67 |
| 1.60 | Goals for / game | 1.47 |
| 1.20 | Goals against / game | 2.07 |
| 60% | Over 2.5 | 67% |
| 67% | BTTS | 87% |
| 20% | Clean sheets | 13% |
| 27% | Failed to score | 7% |
| 4-3-1 | Home record | 0-5-2 |
| 2-3-2 | Away record | 1-2-5 |
| W1 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. QPR · Burnley
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.0 | Shots | 12.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.7 | Shots on target | 3.9 |
| 4.9 | Corners | 3.9 |
| 2.43 | Cards | 1.71 |
| 8.7 | Fouls | 8.9 |
| 48 | Possession % | 46 |
| 1.85 | xG | 1.40 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Conceded
| 11.9 | Shots | 15.1 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.6 | Shots on target | 5.3 |
| 4.0 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 2.14 | Cards | 1.00 |
| 10.7 | Fouls | 9.3 |
| 52 | Possession % | 54 |
| 1.00 | xG | 1.48 |
| 7 matches | sample | 7 matches |
Form comparison
| QPR | Metric | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| 2.40 (better) | Goals scored | 1.80 |
| 1.40 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.80 |
| 2.08 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.39 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.20 (better) | Shots on target | 4.40 |
| 14.60 (better) | Total shots | 12.80 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.40 (better) | Corners | 4.20 |
| 46.2 | Possession % | 48.6 (better) |
| 418 (better) | Passes | 416 |
| Tackles | ||
| 8.20 (better) | Fouls | 9.00 |
| 2.60 (better) | Offsides | 3.75 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.40 | Yellow cards | 2.25 (better) |
| 1.00 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- QPR wins
- 0
- Draws
- 1
- Burnley wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 100%
- QPR v Burnley1–12026-11-03
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +14 | 29 | Birmingham won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +11 | 29 | Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +6 | 29 | Stoke City won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +14 | 28 | Southampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | Wolves won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | West Brom won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 26 | Swansea won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +6 | 24 | QPR won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +14 | 23 | West Ham won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | +8 | 21 | Norwich won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | Blackburn won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 18 | Cardiff won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 18 | Wrexham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Millwall won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 18 | Bristol City won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 17 | Bolton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 | Charlton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 15 | Watford won 2 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 15 | Lincoln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -9 | 10 | Burnley won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -16 | 10 | Derby won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -17 | 8 | Preston won 1 of the last 5 |