Derby v Bolton

23rd3–118th

20:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Derby		Bolton
9	Shots	17
5	Shots on target	6
4	Corners	6
12	Fouls	9
1	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	1
232	Passes	553
30%	Possession %	70%
1.63	xG	1.75

Over 1.5: 79%
Over 2.5: 55%
Over 3.5: 32%
Both score: 59%

Model pick: Bolton 39%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.38 – 1.49

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Derby -0.5

2.22Betano · fair 2.06 · qualifies at 2.12+ · 1.60u

Why this price?

Back Derby -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.22 with Betano — Derby must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 35% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 58%; we judge it at 49%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.06. The offered 2.22 implies only 45%, so the price is 7.8% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.60 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Derby 1.38, Bolton 1.49.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Derby	34.6%	2.89	2.72 Betano	36.8%	-2.2
Match result	Draw	26.0%	3.84	3.70 Betano	27.0%	-1.0
Match result	Bolton	39.4%	2.54	2.90 BetVictor	34.5%	+4.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.7%	1.27	1.25 Betano	80.0%	-1.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.3%	4.70	4.50 Betfair	22.2%	-0.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	54.8%	1.82	1.75 Betano	57.1%	-2.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	45.2%	2.21	2.20 Betfair	45.5%	-0.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	32.5%	3.08	2.80 Betfair	35.7%	-3.2
Total goals	Under 3.5	67.5%	1.48	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+0.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	58.7%	1.71	1.62 Bet365	61.7%	-3.1
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	41.3%	2.42	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	-0.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Derby v Bolton: too close to call

Our model makes Derby 35% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 26% and Bolton at 39%. The goal projection is 1.38 for Derby against 1.49 for Bolton — a slight edge to Bolton on expected output. A combined 2.88 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 59%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 2-1 8%; 0-1 8%; 1-0 7%

This season

Season records for Derby and Bolton
Derby		Bolton
15	Played	15
2-4-9	W-D-L	5-2-8
0.67	Pts / game	1.13
0.93	Goals for / game	1.33
2.00	Goals against / game	1.93
60%	Over 2.5	67%
60%	BTTS	60%
7%	Clean sheets	27%
33%	Failed to score	27%
1-2-5	Home record	2-0-5
1-2-4	Away record	3-2-3
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Derby · Bolton

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.3	Shots	15.3
4.3	Shots on target	4.8
4.6	Corners	5.0
2.13	Cards	1.71
11.5	Fouls	9.9
45	Possession %	50
1.06	xG	1.47
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.4	Shots	15.0
6.1	Shots on target	5.1
5.0	Corners	5.8
1.88	Cards	1.43
8.6	Fouls	9.5
55	Possession %	50
2.04	xG	1.96
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Derby	Metric	Bolton
0.80	Goals scored	1.80 (better)
1.60 (better)	Goals conceded	2.20
1.07	Expected goals (xG)	1.66 (better)
	Big chances
4.60	Shots on target	4.60
14.00	Total shots	15.00 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.60 (better)	Corners	4.00
47.2 (better)	Possession %	44.8
377	Passes	391 (better)
	Tackles
12.20	Fouls	10.40 (better)
2.60	Offsides	1.00 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.60	Yellow cards	2.00 (better)
1.00	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Derby wins: 1
Draws: 0
Bolton wins: 0
Goals / game: 4.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Derby v Bolton3–12026-11-06

Championship table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	+14	29	Birmingham won 4 of the last 5
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29	Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	+6	29	Stoke City won 4 of the last 5
4	Southampton	15	8	4	3	+14	28	Southampton won 2 of the last 5
5	Wolves	15	8	4	3	+8	28	Wolves won 3 of the last 5
6	West Brom	15	8	4	3	+8	28	West Brom won 3 of the last 5
7	Swansea	15	8	2	5	+4	26	Swansea won 1 of the last 5
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	+6	24	QPR won 2 of the last 5
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+14	23	West Ham won 1 of the last 5
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	+2	22	Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+2	22	Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	+8	21	Norwich won 4 of the last 5
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	-1	21	Blackburn won 2 of the last 5
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	0	18	Cardiff won 2 of the last 5
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	-2	18	Wrexham won 2 of the last 5
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	-4	18	Millwall won 1 of the last 5
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	-8	18	Bristol City won 1 of the last 5
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17	Bolton won 1 of the last 5
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	-10	17	Charlton won 1 of the last 5
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	-10	15	Watford won 2 of the last 5
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	-11	15	Lincoln won 1 of the last 5
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	-9	10	Burnley won 0 of the last 5
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10	Derby won 1 of the last 5
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	-17	8	Preston won 1 of the last 5