Watford v Middlesbrough

20th0–02nd

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Watford		Middlesbrough
8	Shots	18
1	Shots on target	4
5	Corners	6
12	Fouls	9
1	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	0
4	Offsides	1
227	Passes	669
26%	Possession %	74%
0.39	xG	2.17

Over 1.5: 81%
Over 2.5: 58%
Over 3.5: 35%
Both score: 53%

Model pick: Middlesbrough 63%
Likely score: 0-2 11%
Expected goals: 0.93 – 2.07

Advised bets

No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.

Our probabilities against the market

Members

Every market, priced — members only

11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Middlesbrough favoured against Watford

Our model makes Watford 16% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 21% and Middlesbrough at 63%. The goal projection is 0.93 for Watford against 2.07 for Middlesbrough — a commanding edge to Middlesbrough on expected output. A combined 3.00 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 58% and both teams to score at 53%. The single most likely scoreline is 0-2 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Middlesbrough is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 37% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 0-2 11%; 1-1 10%; 1-2 10%; 0-1 10%; 0-3 7%

This season

Season records for Watford and Middlesbrough
Watford		Middlesbrough
15	Played	15
4-3-8	W-D-L	8-5-2
1.00	Pts / game	1.93
0.87	Goals for / game	2.00
1.53	Goals against / game	1.27
40%	Over 2.5	67%
47%	BTTS	67%
20%	Clean sheets	27%
40%	Failed to score	13%
4-2-2	Home record	5-2-0
0-1-6	Away record	3-3-2
D1	Streak	D1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Watford · Middlesbrough

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.3	Shots	20.4
3.8	Shots on target	6.9
4.0	Corners	7.0
2.75	Cards	1.11
11.8	Fouls	8.4
47	Possession %	62
1.04	xG	2.14
8 matches	sample	9 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.4	Shots	10.6
5.1	Shots on target	2.7
6.0	Corners	3.8
2.25	Cards	1.59
12.1	Fouls	10.9
54	Possession %	38
1.85	xG	0.94
8 matches	sample	9 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Watford	Metric	Middlesbrough
0.60	Goals scored	2.60 (better)
2.20	Goals conceded	1.40 (better)
1.13	Expected goals (xG)	2.51 (better)
	Big chances
4.60	Shots on target	8.60 (better)
12.80	Total shots	23.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.60	Corners	6.60 (better)
49.4	Possession %	57.6 (better)
394	Passes	507 (better)
	Tackles
11.20	Fouls	10.20 (better)
1.20 (better)	Offsides	2.20
	Throw-ins
3.75	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Watford wins: 1
Draws: 1
Middlesbrough wins: 1
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 33%

Watford v Middlesbrough0–02026-11-07
Middlesbrough v Watford5–12026-04-25
Watford v Middlesbrough3–02025-11-01

Championship table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	+14	29	Birmingham won 4 of the last 5
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29	Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	+6	29	Stoke City won 4 of the last 5
4	Southampton	15	8	4	3	+14	28	Southampton won 2 of the last 5
5	Wolves	15	8	4	3	+8	28	Wolves won 3 of the last 5
6	West Brom	15	8	4	3	+8	28	West Brom won 3 of the last 5
7	Swansea	15	8	2	5	+4	26	Swansea won 1 of the last 5
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	+6	24	QPR won 2 of the last 5
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+14	23	West Ham won 1 of the last 5
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	+2	22	Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+2	22	Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	+8	21	Norwich won 4 of the last 5
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	-1	21	Blackburn won 2 of the last 5
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	0	18	Cardiff won 2 of the last 5
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	-2	18	Wrexham won 2 of the last 5
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	-4	18	Millwall won 1 of the last 5
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	-8	18	Bristol City won 1 of the last 5
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17	Bolton won 1 of the last 5
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	-10	17	Charlton won 1 of the last 5
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	-10	15	Watford won 2 of the last 5
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	-11	15	Lincoln won 1 of the last 5
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	-9	10	Burnley won 0 of the last 5
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10	Derby won 1 of the last 5
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	-17	8	Preston won 1 of the last 5