Cardiff v 
Burnley
Match statistics
| Cardiff | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Shots | 15 |
| 11 | Shots on target | 8 |
| 5 | Corners | 6 |
| 8 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Yellow cards | 3 |
| 0 | Red cards | 0 |
| 0 | Offsides | 1 |
| 573 | Passes | 289 |
| 66% | Possession % | 34% |
| 4.69 | xG | 2.31 |
- Over 1.5
- 86%
- Over 2.5
- 66%
- Over 3.5
- 44%
- Both score
- 64%
- Model pick
- Cardiff 57%
- Likely score
- 2-1 10%
- Expected goals
- 2.13 – 1.26
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Cardiff favoured against Burnley
Our model makes Cardiff 57% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 22% and Burnley at 21%. The goal projection is 2.13 for Cardiff against 1.26 for Burnley — a substantial edge to Cardiff on expected output. A combined 3.39 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 2-1 10%
- 1-1 9%
- 2-0 8%
- 3-1 7%
- 1-0 7%
This season
| Cardiff | Burnley | |
|---|---|---|
| 15 | Played | 15 |
| 4-6-5 | W-D-L | 1-7-7 |
| 1.20 | Pts / game | 0.67 |
| 1.80 | Goals for / game | 1.47 |
| 1.80 | Goals against / game | 2.07 |
| 67% | Over 2.5 | 67% |
| 73% | BTTS | 87% |
| 7% | Clean sheets | 13% |
| 20% | Failed to score | 7% |
| 4-4-0 | Home record | 0-5-2 |
| 0-2-5 | Away record | 1-2-5 |
| W1 | Streak | L1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Cardiff · Burnley
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.9 | Shots | 12.6 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.3 | Shots on target | 4.4 |
| 4.9 | Corners | 4.1 |
| 2.02 | Cards | 1.88 |
| 9.1 | Fouls | 9.0 |
| 56 | Possession % | 44 |
| 2.21 | xG | 1.53 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Conceded
| 15.8 | Shots | 16.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.4 | Shots on target | 6.0 |
| 5.3 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 2.50 | Cards | 1.38 |
| 13.1 | Fouls | 9.1 |
| 45 | Possession % | 56 |
| 1.85 | xG | 1.94 |
| 8 matches | sample | 8 matches |
Form comparison
| Cardiff | Metric | Burnley |
|---|---|---|
| 2.40 (better) | Goals scored | 1.80 |
| 1.20 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.80 |
| 2.23 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.39 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.20 (better) | Shots on target | 4.40 |
| 16.40 (better) | Total shots | 12.80 |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.00 (better) | Corners | 4.20 |
| 54.6 (better) | Possession % | 48.6 |
| 451 (better) | Passes | 416 |
| Tackles | ||
| 9.60 | Fouls | 9.00 (better) |
| 2.20 (better) | Offsides | 3.75 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.80 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.25 |
| 1.00 | Red cards |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Cardiff wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- Burnley wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 6.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Cardiff v Burnley5–42026-11-07
- Burnley v Cardiff1–22025-09-23
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Birmingham | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +14 | 29 | Birmingham won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | +11 | 29 | Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Stoke City | 15 | 9 | 2 | 4 | +6 | 29 | Stoke City won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Southampton | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +14 | 28 | Southampton won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Wolves | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | Wolves won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | West Brom | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | +8 | 28 | West Brom won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Swansea | 15 | 8 | 2 | 5 | +4 | 26 | Swansea won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | QPR | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | +6 | 24 | QPR won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | West Ham | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | +14 | 23 | West Ham won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sheffield Utd | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | +2 | 22 | Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Norwich | 15 | 7 | 0 | 8 | +8 | 21 | Norwich won 4 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Blackburn | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 21 | Blackburn won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Cardiff | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 18 | Cardiff won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Wrexham | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -2 | 18 | Wrexham won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Millwall | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 18 | Millwall won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Bristol City | 15 | 5 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 18 | Bristol City won 1 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Bolton | 15 | 5 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 17 | Bolton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Charlton | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 | Charlton won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Watford | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 15 | Watford won 2 of the last 5 |
| 21 | Lincoln | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -11 | 15 | Lincoln won 1 of the last 5 |
| 22 | Burnley | 15 | 1 | 7 | 7 | -9 | 10 | Burnley won 0 of the last 5 |
| 23 | Derby | 15 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -16 | 10 | Derby won 1 of the last 5 |
| 24 | Preston | 15 | 2 | 2 | 11 | -17 | 8 | Preston won 1 of the last 5 |