Preston v Southampton

24th1–04th

15:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Preston		Southampton
15	Shots	23
2	Shots on target	8
3	Corners	9
17	Fouls	6
5	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	0
202	Passes	750
22%	Possession %	78%
1.33	xG	1.57

Over 1.5: 85%
Over 2.5: 66%
Over 3.5: 44%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: Southampton 67%
Likely score: 1-2 10%
Expected goals: 1.02 – 2.35

Advised bets

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Model pick: Asian handicap

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Our probabilities against the market

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Every market, priced — members only

11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.

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A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Southampton favoured against Preston

Our model makes Preston 14% to win this Championship fixture, with the draw at 19% and Southampton at 67%. The goal projection is 1.02 for Preston against 2.35 for Southampton — a commanding edge to Southampton on expected output. A combined 3.38 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 66% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-2 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Southampton is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 33% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-2 10%; 0-2 9%; 1-1 9%; 0-1 8%; 1-3 8%

This season

Season records for Preston and Southampton
Preston		Southampton
15	Played	15
2-2-11	W-D-L	8-4-3
0.53	Pts / game	1.87
0.87	Goals for / game	1.93
2.00	Goals against / game	1.00
60%	Over 2.5	53%
60%	BTTS	73%
7%	Clean sheets	20%
33%	Failed to score	13%
2-1-5	Home record	6-1-0
0-1-6	Away record	2-3-3
W1	Streak	L1

2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Preston · Southampton

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
10.8	Shots	15.4
1.8	Shots on target	5.4
3.9	Corners	5.3
2.13	Cards	1.89
12.9	Fouls	8.1
35	Possession %	57
0.97	xG	1.67
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
19.9	Shots	15.3
5.6	Shots on target	4.3
7.3	Corners	4.8
1.38	Cards	2.63
8.4	Fouls	13.5
65	Possession %	43
1.98	xG	1.21
8 matches	sample	8 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Preston	Metric	Southampton
0.80	Goals scored	1.20 (better)
2.40	Goals conceded	0.80 (better)
1.06	Expected goals (xG)	1.84 (better)
	Big chances
2.00	Shots on target	4.60 (better)
12.40	Total shots	14.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
3.60	Corners	3.80 (better)
35.2	Possession %	55.0 (better)
280	Passes	504 (better)
	Tackles
11.80	Fouls	8.40 (better)
1.60 (better)	Offsides	3.40
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	3.00
0.33 (better)	Red cards	1.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Preston wins: 2
Draws: 0
Southampton wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.33
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Preston v Southampton1–02026-11-07
Preston v Southampton1–32026-05-02
Southampton v Preston0–22025-11-01

Championship table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Birmingham	15	8	5	2	+14	29	Birmingham won 4 of the last 5
2	Middlesbrough	15	8	5	2	+11	29	Middlesbrough won 2 of the last 5
3	Stoke City	15	9	2	4	+6	29	Stoke City won 4 of the last 5
4	Southampton	15	8	4	3	+14	28	Southampton won 2 of the last 5
5	Wolves	15	8	4	3	+8	28	Wolves won 3 of the last 5
6	West Brom	15	8	4	3	+8	28	West Brom won 3 of the last 5
7	Swansea	15	8	2	5	+4	26	Swansea won 1 of the last 5
8	QPR	15	6	6	3	+6	24	QPR won 2 of the last 5
9	West Ham	15	6	5	4	+14	23	West Ham won 1 of the last 5
10	Sheffield Utd	15	6	4	5	+2	22	Sheffield Utd won 3 of the last 5
11	Portsmouth	15	6	4	5	+2	22	Portsmouth won 2 of the last 5
12	Norwich	15	7	0	8	+8	21	Norwich won 4 of the last 5
13	Blackburn	15	6	3	6	-1	21	Blackburn won 2 of the last 5
14	Cardiff	15	4	6	5	0	18	Cardiff won 2 of the last 5
15	Wrexham	15	4	6	5	-2	18	Wrexham won 2 of the last 5
16	Millwall	15	5	3	7	-4	18	Millwall won 1 of the last 5
17	Bristol City	15	5	3	7	-8	18	Bristol City won 1 of the last 5
18	Bolton	15	5	2	8	-9	17	Bolton won 1 of the last 5
19	Charlton	15	4	5	6	-10	17	Charlton won 1 of the last 5
20	Watford	15	4	3	8	-10	15	Watford won 2 of the last 5
21	Lincoln	15	4	3	8	-11	15	Lincoln won 1 of the last 5
22	Burnley	15	1	7	7	-9	10	Burnley won 0 of the last 5
23	Derby	15	2	4	9	-16	10	Derby won 1 of the last 5
24	Preston	15	2	2	11	-17	8	Preston won 1 of the last 5