Championship · Preview

Championship predictions: matchweek 12 (23–24 October 2026)

Every Championship match in matchweek 12 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 16 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Championship, matchweek 12: twelve matches, played across 23–24 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Wolves, 62% to beat Watford at home; the most evenly balanced game is Bolton v Middlesbrough (Bolton 35%, draw 25%, Middlesbrough 40%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is West Ham v Southampton, at 3.79; the tightest looks QPR v Swansea, at 2.44.

Going into the round, Swansea lead on 23 points, two points clear of Middlesbrough, with Southampton third on 20. The bottom three are Watford (8), Derby (6), Preston (4).

The numbers this season

Championship has averaged 2.92 goals a game over 119 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 63% of them and both sides scoring in 66%. Home sides have won 40% of matches, 28% have been drawn and away sides have won 32%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Bolton v MiddlesbroughFri 23 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Bolton 35%, the draw 25% and Middlesbrough 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 3.06 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 81%. Bolton are 14th on 13 points from 10; Middlesbrough are 2nd on 21 points from 10. Bolton have won three of their last five; Middlesbrough are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws).

Charlton v NorwichSat 24 Oct, 12:30

Our model makes Charlton 28%, the draw 24% and Norwich 48%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.15 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is Norwich to win at 48%. Charlton are 13th on 14 points from 10; Norwich are 20th on 9 points from 10. Charlton are without a win in five (four draws, one defeat); Norwich have won one of their last five. Norwich have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Portsmouth v MillwallSat 24 Oct, 12:30

Our model makes Portsmouth 31%, the draw 27% and Millwall 42%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.61 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Millwall to win at 42%. Portsmouth are 16th on 11 points from 9; Millwall are 11th on 14 points from 10. Portsmouth have won two of their last five; Millwall have won one of their last five. Portsmouth have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Sheffield Utd v DerbySat 24 Oct, 12:30

Our model makes Sheffield Utd 50%, the draw 23% and Derby 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.25 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%. The headline call is Sheffield Utd to win at 50%. Sheffield Utd are 15th on 12 points from 10; Derby are 23rd on 6 points from 10. Sheffield Utd have won two of their last five; Derby are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats). The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Sheffield Utd wins, draws and Derby wins.

Blackburn v WrexhamSat 24 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Blackburn 40%, the draw 28% and Wrexham 33%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.56 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Blackburn to win at 40%. Blackburn are 9th on 15 points from 10; Wrexham are 17th on 11 points from 10. Blackburn have won three of their last five; Wrexham have won one of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Cardiff v BirminghamSat 24 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Cardiff 45%, the draw 25% and Birmingham 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.07 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is over 1.5 goals at 82%. Cardiff are 19th on 10 points from 10; Birmingham are 5th on 17 points from 10. Cardiff have won two of their last five; Birmingham have won three of their last five.

Lincoln v BurnleySat 24 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Lincoln 52%, the draw 24% and Burnley 25%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.06 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is Lincoln to win at 52%. Lincoln are 18th on 11 points from 10; Burnley are 21st on 8 points from 10. Lincoln have won two of their last five; Burnley have won one of their last five.

Preston v West BromSat 24 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Preston 25%, the draw 27% and West Brom 48%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.49 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%. The headline call is West Brom to win at 48%. Preston are 24th on 4 points from 10; West Brom are 7th on 17 points from 10. Preston are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); West Brom have won two of their last five. West Brom have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

QPR v SwanseaSat 24 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes QPR 32%, the draw 29% and Swansea 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.44 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 56%. QPR are 6th on 17 points from 10; Swansea are 1st on 23 points from 10. QPR are unbeaten in five (one win, four draws); Swansea have won four of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between QPR wins, draws and Swansea wins.

Stoke City v Bristol CitySat 24 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Stoke City 40%, the draw 28% and Bristol City 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.59 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Stoke City to win at 40%. Stoke City are 8th on 16 points from 10; Bristol City are 12th on 14 points from 10. Stoke City have won three of their last five; Bristol City have won one of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Stoke City wins, draws and Bristol City wins.

West Ham v SouthamptonSat 24 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes West Ham 47%, the draw 22% and Southampton 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (8%), 3.79 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 72%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 52%. West Ham are 4th on 19 points from 10; Southampton are 3rd on 20 points from 10. West Ham are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Southampton have won four of their last five.

Wolves v WatfordSat 24 Oct, 15:00

Our model makes Wolves 62%, the draw 22% and Watford 16%. The likeliest score is 2-0 (10%), 3.02 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Wolves to win at 62%. Wolves are 10th on 14 points from 9; Watford are 22nd on 8 points from 10. Wolves have won two of their last five; Watford have won one of their last five.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

A pick is published only where the best available price stands clear of the model's probability and the market's consensus together; most fixtures get none. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.