Valencia v 
Real Madrid
- Over 1.5
- 82%
- Over 2.5
- 59%
- Over 3.5
- 37%
- Both score
- 56%
- Model pick
- Real Madrid 61%
- Likely score
- 1-1 10%
- Expected goals
- 1.02 – 2.05
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Real Madrid favoured against Valencia
Our model makes Valencia 18% to win this La Liga fixture, with the draw at 22% and Real Madrid at 61%. The goal projection is 1.02 for Valencia against 2.05 for Real Madrid — a commanding edge to Real Madrid on expected output. A combined 3.07 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 59% and both teams to score at 56%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Real Madrid is a strong favourite here on the numbers, but a 39% chance of not winning is not a remote possibility — it is roughly a one-in-three shot. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 10%
- 1-2 10%
- 0-2 10%
- 0-1 9%
- 1-3 7%
This season
| Valencia | Real Madrid | |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Played | 11 |
| 2-3-6 | W-D-L | 9-0-2 |
| 0.82 | Pts / game | 2.45 |
| 0.73 | Goals for / game | 2.55 |
| 1.55 | Goals against / game | 0.91 |
| 45% | Over 2.5 | 82% |
| 36% | BTTS | 64% |
| 36% | Clean sheets | 27% |
| 45% | Failed to score | 9% |
| 0-2-4 | Home record | 5-0-0 |
| 2-1-2 | Away record | 4-0-2 |
| W1 | Streak | W4 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Valencia · Real Madrid
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.0 | Shots | 14.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.5 | Shots on target | 5.2 |
| 4.2 | Corners | 4.7 |
| 3.03 | Cards | 2.73 |
| 13.3 | Fouls | 8.5 |
| 44 | Possession % | 48 |
| 1.26 | xG | 2.19 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 16.7 | Shots | 13.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.7 | Shots on target | 4.7 |
| 6.0 | Corners | 3.3 |
| 3.07 | Cards | 2.50 |
| 10.8 | Fouls | 15.3 |
| 56 | Possession % | 52 |
| 1.43 | xG | 1.15 |
| 6 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| Valencia | Metric | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| 1.20 | Goals scored | 3.00 (better) |
| 1.40 | Goals conceded | 1.20 (better) |
| 1.31 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.07 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.60 | Shots on target | 7.20 (better) |
| 13.40 | Total shots | 14.00 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.60 | Corners | 6.40 (better) |
| 46.6 | Possession % | 52.0 (better) |
| 403 | Passes | 532 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 13.00 | Fouls | 10.00 (better) |
| 2.20 | Offsides | 2.20 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 3.40 | Yellow cards | 2.40 (better) |
| 0.25 | Red cards | 0.25 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Valencia wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Real Madrid wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 3.00
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Both score
- 0%
- Valencia v Real Madrid0–22026-02-08
- Real Madrid v Valencia4–02025-11-01
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 11 | 10 | 0 | 1 | +34 | 30 | Barcelona won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | +14 | 28 | Atletico Madrid won 5 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 11 | 9 | 0 | 2 | +18 | 27 | Real Madrid won 4 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | +3 | 23 | Real Betis won 2 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 19 | Real Sociedad won 4 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 18 | Sevilla won 1 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Athletic Club | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | +4 | 15 | Athletic Club won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Deportivo La Coruna | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | +1 | 15 | Deportivo La Coruna won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Racing Santander | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -13 | 14 | Racing Santander won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Alaves | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 13 | Alaves won 0 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12 | Villarreal won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Celta Vigo | 11 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 12 | Celta Vigo won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Espanyol | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 12 | Espanyol won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 12 | Rayo Vallecano won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Getafe | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -8 | 12 | Getafe won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Osasuna | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 11 | Osasuna won 1 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Elche | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -4 | 10 | Elche won 2 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Levante | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 | Levante won 1 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Valencia | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 9 | Valencia won 1 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Malaga | 12 | 0 | 5 | 7 | -14 | 5 | Malaga won 0 of the last 5 |