How are Greek Super League predictions made?

A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.

When are Greek Super League predictions published?

At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.

How often do home teams win in Greek Super League?

49% of matches this season, over 63 played, with 19% drawn and 32% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 2.78 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 52%.

Greece

Greek Super League predictions

Every Greek Super League match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Greek Super League page.

5 matches in the next 14 days, every one with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is AEK Athens FC, 74% against Levadiakos at home; the most evenly balanced game is Asteras Tripolis v Kalamata (Asteras Tripolis 39%, draw 24%, Kalamata 37%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Asteras Tripolis v Kalamata, at 3.31.

Every match, one prediction

Tomorrow

Greek Super League5Most likely prediction

15:00 UTC

Asteras Tripolis

Kalamata

66%Both teams to score

15:00 UTC

15:30 UTC

16:30 UTC

59%Both teams to score

19:00 UTC

Olympiakos Piraeus

PAOK

60%Under 2.5 goals

Match by match

Asteras Tripolis v KalamataSun 8 Nov, 15:00

Our model makes Asteras Tripolis 39%, the draw 24% and Kalamata 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.31 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is both teams to score at 66%. Asteras Tripolis are 12th on 6 points from 9; Kalamata are 8th on 11 points from 9. Asteras Tripolis have won one of their last five; Kalamata have won two of their last five.

AEK Athens FC v LevadiakosSun 8 Nov, 15:00

Our model makes AEK Athens FC 74%, the draw 17% and Levadiakos 9%. The likeliest score is 2-0 (12%), 3.19 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 48%. The headline call is AEK Athens FC to win at 74%. AEK Athens FC are 4th on 17 points from 8; Levadiakos are 11th on 6 points from 9. AEK Athens FC have won three of their last five; Levadiakos have won one of their last five. AEK Athens FC have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Iraklis 1908 v PanathinaikosSun 8 Nov, 15:30

Our model makes Iraklis 1908 26%, the draw 26% and Panathinaikos 48%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.64 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Panathinaikos to win at 48%. Iraklis 1908 are 9th on 10 points from 9; Panathinaikos are 1st on 24 points from 9. Iraklis 1908 have won one of their last five; Panathinaikos have won four of their last five.

OFI v AtromitosSun 8 Nov, 16:30

Our model makes OFI 51%, the draw 24% and Atromitos 25%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.03 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is both teams to score at 59%. OFI are 5th on 16 points from 9; Atromitos are 13th on 5 points from 8. OFI have won two of their last five; Atromitos have won one of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between OFI wins, draws and Atromitos wins.

Olympiakos Piraeus v PAOKSun 8 Nov, 19:00

Our model makes Olympiakos Piraeus 53%, the draw 28% and PAOK 19%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (15%), 2.27 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 43%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 60%. Olympiakos Piraeus are 2nd on 22 points from 9; PAOK are 3rd on 18 points from 9. Olympiakos Piraeus have won all of their last five; PAOK have won three of their last five. Two of the sides' last four meetings were drawn.

The numbers this season

Greek Super League has averaged 2.78 goals a game over 63 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 52% of them and both sides scoring in 49%. Home sides have won 49% of matches, 19% have been drawn and away sides have won 32%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these predictions

How are Greek Super League predictions made?: A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
When are Greek Super League predictions published?: At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
How often do home teams win in Greek Super League?: 49% of matches this season, over 63 played, with 19% drawn and 32% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 2.78 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 52%.

The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.