Sweden
Allsvenskan predictions
Every Allsvenskan match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Allsvenskan page.
5 matches in the next 14 days, every one with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is Djurgardens IF, 72% against Halmstad away; the most evenly balanced game is IFK Goteborg v Malmo FF (IFK Goteborg 34%, draw 27%, Malmo FF 39%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is AIK Stockholm v BK Hacken, at 3.30.
Every match, one prediction
Tomorrow
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Match by match
IFK Goteborg v Malmo FFSun 8 Nov, 13:00
Our model makes IFK Goteborg 34%, the draw 27% and Malmo FF 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.74 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 56%. The headline call is both teams to score at 56%. IFK Goteborg are 9th on 38 points from 27; Malmo FF are 7th on 40 points from 27. IFK Goteborg have won one of their last five; Malmo FF have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
Halmstad v Djurgardens IFSun 8 Nov, 13:00
Our model makes Halmstad 10%, the draw 18% and Djurgardens IF 72%. The likeliest score is 0-2 (13%), 2.94 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 46%. The headline call is Djurgardens IF to win at 72%. Halmstad are 16th on 17 points from 27; Djurgardens IF are 3rd on 52 points from 27. Halmstad have won one of their last five; Djurgardens IF are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.
IF Brommapojkarna v Mjallby AIFSun 8 Nov, 15:30
Our model makes IF Brommapojkarna 44%, the draw 26% and Mjallby AIF 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.81 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is both teams to score at 57%. IF Brommapojkarna are 11th on 34 points from 27; Mjallby AIF are 12th on 27 points from 27. IF Brommapojkarna have won two of their last five; Mjallby AIF have won one of their last five. Mjallby AIF have won two of the sides' last two meetings.
Kalmar FF v SiriusSun 8 Nov, 15:30
Our model makes Kalmar FF 18%, the draw 21% and Sirius 61%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (10%), 3.18 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 58%. The headline call is Sirius to win at 61%. Kalmar FF are 13th on 23 points from 27; Sirius are 2nd on 58 points from 27. Kalmar FF have won one of their last five; Sirius have won two of their last five.
AIK Stockholm v BK HackenSun 8 Nov, 15:30
Our model makes AIK Stockholm 32%, the draw 24% and BK Hacken 44%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.30 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%. The headline call is both teams to score at 65%. AIK Stockholm are 8th on 38 points from 27; BK Hacken are 4th on 49 points from 27. AIK Stockholm have won one of their last five; BK Hacken are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). Two of the sides' last two meetings were drawn.
The numbers this season
Allsvenskan has averaged 2.87 goals a game over 217 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 53% of them and both sides scoring in 51%. Home sides have won 41% of matches, 24% have been drawn and away sides have won 36%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.
About these predictions
- How are Allsvenskan predictions made?
- A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
- When are Allsvenskan predictions published?
- At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
- How often do home teams win in Allsvenskan?
- 41% of matches this season, over 217 played, with 24% drawn and 36% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 2.87 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 53%.
The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.