IF Brommapojkarna v 
Mjallby AIF
- Over 1.5
- 78%
- Over 2.5
- 53%
- Over 3.5
- 31%
- Both score
- 57%
- Model pick
- IF Brommapojkarna 44%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.56 – 1.26
Advised bets
Members only
Edge strength 5 of 5Model pick: Asian handicap
Members see the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning, from the moment it is published. Once the day is over it is published here for everyone, with its outcome. Membership is £4.99 a month, cancel any time.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
IF Brommapojkarna favoured against Mjallby AIF
Our model makes IF Brommapojkarna 44% to win this Allsvenskan fixture, with the draw at 26% and Mjallby AIF at 30%. The goal projection is 1.56 for IF Brommapojkarna against 1.26 for Mjallby AIF — a clear edge to IF Brommapojkarna on expected output. A combined 2.81 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-0 9%
- 1-2 7%
- 2-0 7%
This season
| IF Brommapojkarna | Mjallby AIF | |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Played | 27 |
| 9-7-11 | W-D-L | 6-9-12 |
| 1.26 | Pts / game | 1.00 |
| 1.44 | Goals for / game | 1.11 |
| 1.63 | Goals against / game | 1.59 |
| 67% | Over 2.5 | 44% |
| 63% | BTTS | 48% |
| 15% | Clean sheets | 19% |
| 26% | Failed to score | 44% |
| 4-4-5 | Home record | 3-3-8 |
| 5-3-6 | Away record | 3-6-4 |
| L1 | Streak | D1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. IF Brommapojkarna · Mjallby AIF
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 13.8 | Shots | 12.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.2 | Shots on target | 4.0 |
| 4.4 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 2.00 |
| 11.4 | Fouls | 14.7 |
| 42 | Possession % | 49 |
| 1.46 | xG | 1.01 |
| 5 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Conceded
| 15.8 | Shots | 14.2 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 7.6 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 0.80 | Cards | 1.33 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 15.5 |
| 58 | Possession % | 51 |
| 1.52 | xG | 1.03 |
| 5 matches | sample | 6 matches |
Form comparison
| IF Brommapojkarna | Metric | Mjallby AIF |
|---|---|---|
| 2.25 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 1.75 | Goals conceded | 1.00 (better) |
| 1.57 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.34 |
| Big chances | ||
| 5.75 (better) | Shots on target | 4.40 |
| 12.75 | Total shots | 13.00 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.50 | Corners | 5.20 (better) |
| 41.0 | Possession % | 47.6 (better) |
| 429 | Passes | 451 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.75 (better) | Fouls | 12.80 |
| 1.25 | Offsides | 0.80 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.50 | Yellow cards | 2.20 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- IF Brommapojkarna wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Mjallby AIF wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Both score
- 0%
- Mjallby AIF v IF Brommapojkarna3–02026-04-18
- IF Brommapojkarna v Mjallby AIF0–12025-09-28
Allsvenskan table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hammarby FF | 28 | 18 | 4 | 6 | +37 | 58 | Hammarby FF won 5 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Sirius | 27 | 18 | 4 | 5 | +24 | 58 | Sirius won 2 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Djurgardens IF | 27 | 16 | 4 | 7 | +30 | 52 | Djurgardens IF won 3 of the last 5 |
| 4 | BK Hacken | 27 | 13 | 10 | 4 | +18 | 49 | BK Hacken won 4 of the last 5 |
| 5 | IF Elfsborg | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | +11 | 46 | IF Elfsborg won 1 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Vasteras SK FK | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | +2 | 44 | Vasteras SK FK won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Malmo FF | 27 | 12 | 4 | 11 | +6 | 40 | Malmo FF won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | AIK Stockholm | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | -4 | 38 | AIK Stockholm won 1 of the last 5 |
| 9 | IFK Goteborg | 27 | 10 | 8 | 9 | -10 | 38 | IFK Goteborg won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Gais | 27 | 10 | 7 | 10 | +7 | 37 | Gais won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | IF Brommapojkarna | 27 | 9 | 7 | 11 | -5 | 34 | IF Brommapojkarna won 2 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Mjallby AIF | 27 | 6 | 9 | 12 | -13 | 27 | Mjallby AIF won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 27 | 6 | 5 | 16 | -19 | 23 | Kalmar FF won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Degerfors IF | 27 | 5 | 5 | 17 | -24 | 20 | Degerfors IF won 0 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 27 | 4 | 7 | 16 | -27 | 19 | Orgryte IS won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Halmstad | 27 | 4 | 5 | 18 | -33 | 17 | Halmstad won 1 of the last 5 |