How are Hungarian NB I predictions made?

A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.

When are Hungarian NB I predictions published?

At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.

How often do home teams win in Hungarian NB I?

43% of matches this season, over 72 played, with 26% drawn and 31% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 2.99 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 57%.

Hungary

Hungarian NB I predictions

Every Hungarian NB I match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Hungarian NB I page.

4 matches in the next 14 days, every one with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is Gyori ETO FC, 53% against Nyiregyhaza away; the most evenly balanced game is Kisvarda FC v Puskas Academy (Kisvarda FC 32%, draw 30%, Puskas Academy 38%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Debreceni VSC v Ujpest, at 3.16.

Every match, one prediction

Today

Hungarian NB I1Most likely prediction

17:45 UTC

Kisvarda FC

Puskas Academy

61%Under 2.5 goals

Tomorrow

Hungarian NB I3Most likely prediction

12:15 UTC

14:30 UTC

18:00 UTC

52%Ferencvarosi TC win

1 more member pick on these Hungarian NB I matches, with the price, stake and reasoning, from the moment each was published. £4.99 a month.Unlock every pick

Match by match

Kisvarda FC v Puskas AcademySat 7 Nov, 17:45

Our model makes Kisvarda FC 32%, the draw 30% and Puskas Academy 38%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.24 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 61%. Kisvarda FC are 10th on 12 points from 12; Puskas Academy are 2nd on 21 points from 12. Kisvarda FC are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); Puskas Academy have won three of their last five. Kisvarda FC have won three of the sides' last four meetings.

Nyiregyhaza v Gyori ETO FCSun 8 Nov, 12:15

Our model makes Nyiregyhaza 23%, the draw 24% and Gyori ETO FC 53%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 2.92 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is Gyori ETO FC to win at 53%. Nyiregyhaza are 12th on 11 points from 12; Gyori ETO FC are 1st on 22 points from 12. Nyiregyhaza have won one of their last five; Gyori ETO FC have won three of their last five. Gyori ETO FC have won four of the sides' last four meetings.

Debreceni VSC v UjpestSun 8 Nov, 14:30

Our model makes Debreceni VSC 46%, the draw 24% and Ujpest 29%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.16 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 61%. Debreceni VSC are 5th on 19 points from 12; Ujpest are 6th on 18 points from 12. Debreceni VSC have won three of their last five; Ujpest have won two of their last five. The sides' last four meetings split 2–0–2 between Debreceni VSC wins, draws and Ujpest wins.

Vasas v Ferencvarosi TCSun 8 Nov, 18:00

Our model makes Vasas 24%, the draw 24% and Ferencvarosi TC 52%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.01 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is Ferencvarosi TC to win at 52%. Vasas are 7th on 16 points from 12; Ferencvarosi TC are 3rd on 20 points from 11. Vasas have won one of their last five; Ferencvarosi TC are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws).

The numbers this season

Hungarian NB I has averaged 2.99 goals a game over 72 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 57% of them and both sides scoring in 60%. Home sides have won 43% of matches, 26% have been drawn and away sides have won 31%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these predictions

How are Hungarian NB I predictions made?: A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
When are Hungarian NB I predictions published?: At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
How often do home teams win in Hungarian NB I?: 43% of matches this season, over 72 played, with 26% drawn and 31% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 2.99 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 57%.

The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.