Kisvarda FC v 
Puskas Academy
- Over 1.5
- 66%
- Over 2.5
- 39%
- Over 3.5
- 19%
- Both score
- 46%
- Model pick
- Puskas Academy 38%
- Likely score
- 1-1 14%
- Expected goals
- 1.06 – 1.17
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Kisvarda FC v Puskas Academy: too close to call
Our model makes Kisvarda FC 32% to win this Hungarian NB I fixture, with the draw at 30% and Puskas Academy at 38%. The goal projection is 1.06 for Kisvarda FC against 1.17 for Puskas Academy — a slight edge to Puskas Academy on expected output. A combined 2.24 goals points to a cagey game with few clear chances, which puts over 2.5 at 39% and both teams to score at 46%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 14%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 14%
- 0-1 12%
- 0-0 11%
- 1-0 11%
- 1-2 8%
This season
| Kisvarda FC | Puskas Academy | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 12 |
| 2-6-4 | W-D-L | 7-0-5 |
| 1.00 | Pts / game | 1.75 |
| 1.00 | Goals for / game | 1.42 |
| 1.17 | Goals against / game | 1.25 |
| 25% | Over 2.5 | 50% |
| 67% | BTTS | 50% |
| 17% | Clean sheets | 33% |
| 25% | Failed to score | 17% |
| 0-4-2 | Home record | 2-0-4 |
| 2-2-2 | Away record | 5-0-1 |
| L1 | Streak | L2 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Kisvarda FC · Puskas Academy
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 7.0 | Shots | 9.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.8 | Shots on target | 3.8 |
| 1.8 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 2.50 | Cards | 3.75 |
| 15.8 | Fouls | 17.0 |
| 43 | Possession % | 39 |
| 0.82 | xG | 1.13 |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 18.5 | Shots | 16.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 5.0 |
| 7.3 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 1.50 | Cards | 2.50 |
| 13.3 | Fouls | 11.5 |
| 58 | Possession % | 61 |
| 1.43 | xG | 1.72 |
| 4 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| Kisvarda FC | Metric | Puskas Academy |
|---|---|---|
| 1.00 | Goals scored | 1.20 (better) |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 1.00 (better) |
| 0.88 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.18 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.25 | Shots on target | 4.00 (better) |
| 8.50 | Total shots | 10.33 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 3.75 | Corners | 4.67 (better) |
| 44.5 (better) | Possession % | 39.7 |
| 315 | Passes | 351 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 13.75 (better) | Fouls | 16.67 |
| 0.67 | Offsides | 0.67 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.50 (better) | Yellow cards | 3.67 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.33 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Kisvarda FC wins
- 3
- Draws
- 0
- Puskas Academy wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 2.00
- Over 2.5
- 25%
- Both score
- 25%
- Puskas Academy v Kisvarda FC0–22026-07-31
- Kisvarda FC v Puskas Academy1–02026-03-06
- Puskas Academy v Kisvarda FC2–02025-11-22
- Kisvarda FC v Puskas Academy2–12025-08-10
Hungarian NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gyori ETO FC | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | +7 | 22 | Gyori ETO FC won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Puskas Academy | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | +2 | 21 | Puskas Academy won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Ferencvarosi TC | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | +10 | 20 | Ferencvarosi TC won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Paks | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | +2 | 20 | Paks won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Debreceni VSC | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | +4 | 19 | Debreceni VSC won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Ujpest | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 18 | Ujpest won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Vasas | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 16 | Vasas won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Budapest Honved | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 13 | Budapest Honved won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 13 | Zalaegerszegi TE won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Kisvarda FC | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -2 | 12 | Kisvarda FC won 0 of the last 5 |
| 11 | MTK Budapest | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 12 | MTK Budapest won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Nyiregyhaza | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 11 | Nyiregyhaza won 1 of the last 5 |