Debreceni VSC v 
Ujpest
- Over 1.5
- 83%
- Over 2.5
- 61%
- Over 3.5
- 39%
- Both score
- 63%
- Model pick
- Debreceni VSC 46%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.78 – 1.38
Advised bets
Members only
Edge strength 5 of 5Model pick: Asian handicap
Members see the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning, from the moment it is published. Once the day is over it is published here for everyone, with its outcome. Membership is £4.99 a month, cancel any time.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Debreceni VSC favoured against Ujpest
Our model makes Debreceni VSC 46% to win this Hungarian NB I fixture, with the draw at 24% and Ujpest at 29%. The goal projection is 1.78 for Debreceni VSC against 1.38 for Ujpest — a clear edge to Debreceni VSC on expected output. A combined 3.16 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 61% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-2 7%
- 1-0 7%
- 2-0 7%
This season
| Debreceni VSC | Ujpest | |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Played | 12 |
| 5-4-3 | W-D-L | 5-3-4 |
| 1.58 | Pts / game | 1.50 |
| 1.75 | Goals for / game | 1.67 |
| 1.42 | Goals against / game | 1.42 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 58% |
| 58% | BTTS | 75% |
| 33% | Clean sheets | 0% |
| 17% | Failed to score | 25% |
| 2-2-2 | Home record | 4-1-1 |
| 3-2-1 | Away record | 1-2-3 |
| W3 | Streak | W1 |
2026/27 league matches only, computed from results on record. Debreceni VSC · Ujpest
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 16.5 | Shots | 20.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 7.3 | Shots on target | 7.0 |
| 5.8 | Corners | 7.0 |
| 3.50 | Cards | 2.60 |
| 13.5 | Fouls | 13.4 |
| 58 | Possession % | 56 |
| 1.63 | xG | 2.40 |
| 4 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Conceded
| 10.8 | Shots | 12.4 |
|---|---|---|
| 3.8 | Shots on target | 3.8 |
| 3.3 | Corners | 2.4 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 2.85 |
| 14.3 | Fouls | 15.0 |
| 42 | Possession % | 44 |
| 1.13 | xG | 1.32 |
| 4 matches | sample | 5 matches |
Form comparison
| Debreceni VSC | Metric | Ujpest |
|---|---|---|
| 2.25 (better) | Goals scored | 1.00 |
| 0.75 (better) | Goals conceded | 1.00 |
| 1.47 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.04 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 7.00 (better) | Shots on target | 5.67 |
| 15.33 | Total shots | 21.33 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 5.00 | Corners | 6.67 (better) |
| 56.3 | Possession % | 58.0 (better) |
| 367 | Passes | 488 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 13.00 (better) | Fouls | 14.67 |
| 5.33 | Offsides | 2.33 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 3.00 | Yellow cards | 2.67 (better) |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Debreceni VSC wins
- 2
- Draws
- 0
- Ujpest wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 4.75
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Ujpest v Debreceni VSC4–22026-08-02
- Debreceni VSC v Ujpest2–12026-05-16
- Ujpest v Debreceni VSC2–12026-02-13
- Debreceni VSC v Ujpest5–22025-10-26
Hungarian NB I table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gyori ETO FC | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | +7 | 22 | Gyori ETO FC won 3 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Puskas Academy | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 | +2 | 21 | Puskas Academy won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Ferencvarosi TC | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | +10 | 20 | Ferencvarosi TC won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Paks | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | +2 | 20 | Paks won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Debreceni VSC | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | +4 | 19 | Debreceni VSC won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Ujpest | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | +3 | 18 | Ujpest won 2 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Vasas | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | +3 | 16 | Vasas won 1 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Budapest Honved | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 13 | Budapest Honved won 2 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Zalaegerszegi TE | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -7 | 13 | Zalaegerszegi TE won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Kisvarda FC | 12 | 2 | 6 | 4 | -2 | 12 | Kisvarda FC won 0 of the last 5 |
| 11 | MTK Budapest | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 12 | MTK Budapest won 1 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Nyiregyhaza | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 11 | Nyiregyhaza won 1 of the last 5 |