How are Eliteserien predictions made?

A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.

When are Eliteserien predictions published?

At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.

How often do home teams win in Eliteserien?

50% of matches this season, over 200 played, with 20% drawn and 31% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 3.26 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 64%.

Norway

Eliteserien predictions

Every Eliteserien match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Eliteserien page.

6 matches in the next 14 days, every one with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is Viking, 72% against KFUM Oslo at home; the most evenly balanced game is Ham-Kam v Sarpsborg 08 FF (Ham-Kam 38%, draw 25%, Sarpsborg 08 FF 37%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Viking v KFUM Oslo, at 3.65.

Every match, one prediction

Tomorrow

Eliteserien6Most likely prediction

13:30 UTC

16:00 UTC

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1 members

63%Both teams to score

16:00 UTC

16:00 UTC

16:00 UTC

18:15 UTC

2 more member picks on these Eliteserien matches, with the price, stake and reasoning, from the moment each was published. £4.99 a month.Unlock every pick

Match by match

Tromso v Bodo/GlimtSun 8 Nov, 13:30

Our model makes Tromso 25%, the draw 22% and Bodo/Glimt 54%. The likeliest score is 1-2 (9%), 3.49 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is Bodo/Glimt to win at 54%. Tromso are 6th on 40 points from 25; Bodo/Glimt are 2nd on 59 points from 25. Tromso have won one of their last five; Bodo/Glimt have won three of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Ham-Kam v Sarpsborg 08 FFSun 8 Nov, 16:00

Our model makes Ham-Kam 38%, the draw 25% and Sarpsborg 08 FF 37%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.11 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is both teams to score at 63%. Ham-Kam are 13th on 27 points from 25; Sarpsborg 08 FF are 9th on 31 points from 25. Ham-Kam have won one of their last five; Sarpsborg 08 FF have won two of their last five. Sarpsborg 08 FF have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Lillestrom v AalesundSun 8 Nov, 16:00

Our model makes Lillestrom 48%, the draw 23% and Aalesund 29%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.51 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 47%. Lillestrom are 5th on 42 points from 25; Aalesund are 14th on 24 points from 25. Lillestrom have won three of their last five; Aalesund have won two of their last five.

Viking v KFUM OsloSun 8 Nov, 16:00

Our model makes Viking 72%, the draw 16% and KFUM Oslo 11%. The likeliest score is 2-0 (9%), 3.65 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is Viking to win at 72%. Viking are 1st on 59 points from 25; KFUM Oslo are 10th on 31 points from 25. Viking have won four of their last five; KFUM Oslo are unbeaten in five (two wins, three draws). One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Sandefjord v MoldeSun 8 Nov, 16:00

Our model makes Sandefjord 30%, the draw 25% and Molde 45%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.08 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is Molde to win at 45%. Sandefjord are 12th on 27 points from 25; Molde are 3rd on 43 points from 25. Sandefjord have won two of their last five; Molde have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Sandefjord wins, draws and Molde wins.

Fredrikstad v BrannSun 8 Nov, 18:15

Our model makes Fredrikstad 30%, the draw 25% and Brann 45%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.08 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is Brann to win at 45%. Fredrikstad are 11th on 29 points from 25; Brann are 7th on 32 points from 25. Fredrikstad are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Brann have won two of their last five. Brann have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

The numbers this season

Eliteserien has averaged 3.26 goals a game over 200 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 64% of them and both sides scoring in 60%. Home sides have won 50% of matches, 20% have been drawn and away sides have won 31%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these predictions

How are Eliteserien predictions made?: A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
When are Eliteserien predictions published?: At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
How often do home teams win in Eliteserien?: 50% of matches this season, over 200 played, with 20% drawn and 31% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 3.26 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 64%.

The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.