Lillestrom v 
Aalesund
- Over 1.5
- 87%
- Over 2.5
- 68%
- Over 3.5
- 47%
- Both score
- 68%
- Model pick
- Lillestrom 48%
- Likely score
- 1-1 10%
- Expected goals
- 1.99 – 1.52
Advised bets
No advised bet on this fixture. The available prices are close enough to our own numbers that there is nothing worth backing. Most fixtures end up here, and manufacturing a selection for every game is exactly how tipster records get destroyed.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Lillestrom favoured against Aalesund
Our model makes Lillestrom 48% to win this Eliteserien fixture, with the draw at 23% and Aalesund at 29%. The goal projection is 1.99 for Lillestrom against 1.52 for Aalesund — a clear edge to Lillestrom on expected output. A combined 3.51 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 68% and both teams to score at 68%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 10%
- 2-1 9%
- 1-2 7%
- 2-2 7%
- 3-1 6%
This season
| Lillestrom | Aalesund | |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Played | 25 |
| 13-3-9 | W-D-L | 5-9-11 |
| 1.68 | Pts / game | 0.96 |
| 1.44 | Goals for / game | 1.72 |
| 1.32 | Goals against / game | 2.28 |
| 52% | Over 2.5 | 72% |
| 44% | BTTS | 88% |
| 32% | Clean sheets | 4% |
| 28% | Failed to score | 8% |
| 6-1-5 | Home record | 2-6-5 |
| 7-2-4 | Away record | 3-3-6 |
| W3 | Streak | L2 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Lillestrom · Aalesund
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 15.2 | Shots | 15.8 |
|---|---|---|
| 5.4 | Shots on target | 5.5 |
| 4.8 | Corners | 6.8 |
| 1.40 | Cards | 2.25 |
| 10.4 | Fouls | 14.3 |
| 44 | Possession % | 40 |
| 1.71 | xG | 1.50 |
| 5 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 19.2 | Shots | 21.5 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.6 | Shots on target | 6.5 |
| 6.0 | Corners | 9.3 |
| 1.45 | Cards | 2.25 |
| 12.0 | Fouls | 11.5 |
| 56 | Possession % | 61 |
| 1.79 | xG | 2.45 |
| 5 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| Lillestrom | Metric | Aalesund |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Goals scored | 1.80 (better) |
| 2.00 | Goals conceded | 1.60 (better) |
| 1.55 (better) | Expected goals (xG) | 1.02 |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.00 | Shots on target | 4.25 (better) |
| 11.50 | Total shots | 11.75 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 2.50 | Corners | 5.00 (better) |
| 40.8 (better) | Possession % | 36.5 |
| 385 (better) | Passes | 260 |
| Tackles | ||
| 10.00 (better) | Fouls | 11.00 |
| 2.25 | Offsides | 1.25 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.00 | Yellow cards | 1.00 (better) |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.50 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Lillestrom wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Aalesund wins
- 0
- Goals / game
- 4.00
- Over 2.5
- 100%
- Both score
- 100%
- Aalesund v Lillestrom1–32026-03-15
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking | 25 | 19 | 2 | 4 | +38 | 59 | Viking won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Bodo/Glimt | 25 | 19 | 2 | 4 | +38 | 59 | Bodo/Glimt won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Molde | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | +20 | 43 | Molde won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Rosenborg | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | +18 | 43 | Rosenborg won 4 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Lillestrom | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | +3 | 42 | Lillestrom won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Tromso | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | +5 | 40 | Tromso won 1 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Brann | 25 | 10 | 2 | 13 | +3 | 32 | Brann won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Valerenga | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | -3 | 32 | Valerenga won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | -7 | 31 | Sarpsborg 08 FF won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | KFUM Oslo | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | -9 | 31 | KFUM Oslo won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Fredrikstad | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -15 | 29 | Fredrikstad won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Sandefjord | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | -8 | 27 | Sandefjord won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Ham-Kam | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | -18 | 27 | Ham-Kam won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | -14 | 24 | Aalesund won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | -22 | 23 | Kristiansund BK won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Start | 25 | 5 | 4 | 16 | -29 | 19 | Start won 1 of the last 5 |