Ham-Kam v 
Sarpsborg 08 FF
- Over 1.5
- 82%
- Over 2.5
- 60%
- Over 3.5
- 38%
- Both score
- 63%
- Model pick
- Ham-Kam 38%
- Likely score
- 1-1 11%
- Expected goals
- 1.57 – 1.53
Advised bets
Members only
Edge strength 5 of 5Model pick: Asian handicap
Members see the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning, from the moment it is published. Once the day is over it is published here for everyone, with its outcome. Membership is £4.99 a month, cancel any time.
Our probabilities against the market
MembersEvery market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Ham-Kam v Sarpsborg 08 FF: too close to call
Our model makes Ham-Kam 38% to win this Eliteserien fixture, with the draw at 25% and Sarpsborg 08 FF at 37%. The goal projection is 1.57 for Ham-Kam against 1.53 for Sarpsborg 08 FF — almost nothing to Ham-Kam on expected output. A combined 3.11 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 60% and both teams to score at 63%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 11%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 11%
- 2-1 8%
- 1-2 8%
- 2-2 7%
- 1-0 7%
This season
| Ham-Kam | Sarpsborg 08 FF | |
|---|---|---|
| 25 | Played | 25 |
| 7-6-12 | W-D-L | 8-7-10 |
| 1.08 | Pts / game | 1.24 |
| 1.40 | Goals for / game | 1.28 |
| 2.12 | Goals against / game | 1.56 |
| 76% | Over 2.5 | 60% |
| 60% | BTTS | 64% |
| 16% | Clean sheets | 20% |
| 24% | Failed to score | 24% |
| 5-2-5 | Home record | 5-3-5 |
| 2-4-7 | Away record | 3-4-5 |
| D1 | Streak | L1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Ham-Kam · Sarpsborg 08 FF
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 11.6 | Shots | 22.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.8 | Shots on target | 6.5 |
| 3.2 | Corners | 10.5 |
| 1.60 | Cards | 2.08 |
| 11.6 | Fouls | 13.3 |
| 41 | Possession % | 60 |
| 1.27 | xG | 2.49 |
| 5 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Conceded
| 18.4 | Shots | 15.0 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.2 | Shots on target | 5.3 |
| 5.4 | Corners | 5.5 |
| 0.80 | Cards | 2.08 |
| 10.0 | Fouls | 13.8 |
| 59 | Possession % | 40 |
| 1.77 | xG | 1.54 |
| 5 matches | sample | 4 matches |
Form comparison
| Ham-Kam | Metric | Sarpsborg 08 FF |
|---|---|---|
| 1.60 | Goals scored | 2.20 (better) |
| 2.20 | Goals conceded | 1.60 (better) |
| 1.12 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.11 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 3.00 | Shots on target | 6.00 (better) |
| 11.25 | Total shots | 20.67 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 2.50 | Corners | 11.00 (better) |
| 38.5 | Possession % | 56.7 (better) |
| 359 | Passes | 474 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 11.50 (better) | Fouls | 13.33 |
| 3.00 | Offsides | 1.33 (better) |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 1.67 (better) | Yellow cards | 2.00 |
| 0.00 | Red cards | 0.00 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to head
Full record →- Ham-Kam wins
- 0
- Draws
- 0
- Sarpsborg 08 FF wins
- 2
- Goals / game
- 2.50
- Over 2.5
- 50%
- Both score
- 50%
- Sarpsborg 08 FF v Ham-Kam1–02026-07-26
- Ham-Kam v Sarpsborg 08 FF1–32025-08-31
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking | 25 | 19 | 2 | 4 | +38 | 59 | Viking won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Bodo/Glimt | 25 | 19 | 2 | 4 | +38 | 59 | Bodo/Glimt won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Molde | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | +20 | 43 | Molde won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Rosenborg | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | +18 | 43 | Rosenborg won 4 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Lillestrom | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | +3 | 42 | Lillestrom won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Tromso | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | +5 | 40 | Tromso won 1 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Brann | 25 | 10 | 2 | 13 | +3 | 32 | Brann won 2 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Valerenga | 25 | 9 | 5 | 11 | -3 | 32 | Valerenga won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | -7 | 31 | Sarpsborg 08 FF won 2 of the last 5 |
| 10 | KFUM Oslo | 25 | 8 | 7 | 10 | -9 | 31 | KFUM Oslo won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Fredrikstad | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -15 | 29 | Fredrikstad won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Sandefjord | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | -8 | 27 | Sandefjord won 2 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Ham-Kam | 25 | 7 | 6 | 12 | -18 | 27 | Ham-Kam won 1 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 25 | 5 | 9 | 11 | -14 | 24 | Aalesund won 2 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | -22 | 23 | Kristiansund BK won 1 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Start | 25 | 5 | 4 | 16 | -29 | 19 | Start won 1 of the last 5 |