Brasileirão Série A · Review

Brasileirão Série A matchweek 34 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Brasileirão Série A result from matchweek 34 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 7 Nov 2026, updated 7 Nov 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Brasileirão Série A, matchweek 34 (3–6 November 2026), is complete: nine matches, 28 goals (3.11 a game), five home wins, one draw and three away wins. Over 2.5 goals landed in six of the nine and both teams scored in five.

The result the model rated least likely was Vasco DA Gama's win in Atletico Paranaense v Vasco DA Gama (1–3), which it had at 28%; the one it rated most likely was Flamengo's win in Flamengo v Gremio (3–1), at 69%.

After the round, Flamengo lead on 76 points, three points clear of Palmeiras, with Cruzeiro third on 60. The bottom three are Gremio (37), Remo (29), Chapecoense-sc (21).

Match by match

Chapecoense-sc 1–2 MirassolTue 3 Nov, 22:30

Before kick-off the model had Chapecoense-sc 27%, the draw 26% and Mirassol 47%, so Mirassol winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.54–2.19: Mirassol created the better chances. The headline call, Mirassol to win at 47%, came in. Pick published: Chapecoense-sc -0.5 at 3.05 (free pick) — lost.

Internacional 1–0 CoritibaWed 4 Nov, 00:30

Before kick-off the model had Internacional 51%, the draw 24% and Coritiba 25%, so Internacional winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.59–0.64: Internacional created the better chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 56%, did not come in. Pick published: Internacional -0.5 at 1.60 — won.

Atletico Paranaense 1–3 Vasco DA GamaWed 4 Nov, 22:30

Before kick-off the model had Atletico Paranaense 47%, the draw 25% and Vasco DA Gama 28%, with Atletico Paranaense favoured; it put Vasco DA Gama winning at 28%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.39–0.71: Vasco DA Gama created the better chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 56%, came in. Pick published: Atletico Paranaense -0.25 at 1.80 — lost.

Flamengo 3–1 GremioWed 4 Nov, 22:30

Before kick-off the model had Flamengo 69%, the draw 20% and Gremio 11%, so Flamengo winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-0. Expected goals were 2.43–0.31: Flamengo created the better chances. The headline call, Flamengo to win at 69%, came in. Pick published: Under 2.5 at 2.57 — lost.

Botafogo 1–0 Atletico-MGThu 5 Nov, 00:30

Before kick-off the model had Botafogo 34%, the draw 26% and Atletico-MG 40%, with Atletico-MG favoured; it put Botafogo winning at 34%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.60–0.34: Botafogo created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 58%, did not come in. Pick published: Atletico-MG at 3.10 (free pick) — lost.

Sao Paulo 0–0 CorinthiansThu 5 Nov, 00:30

Before kick-off the model had Sao Paulo 44%, the draw 31% and Corinthians 25%, with Sao Paulo favoured; it put the draw at 31%. The likeliest score had been 1-0. Expected goals were 1.79–1.24: Sao Paulo created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 59%, came in. Pick published: Sao Paulo -0.25 at 1.80 — half lost.

Palmeiras 6–1 RemoThu 5 Nov, 22:30

Before kick-off the model had Palmeiras 69%, the draw 20% and Remo 11%, so Palmeiras winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 2-0. Expected goals were 4.78–0.32: Palmeiras created the better chances. The headline call, Palmeiras to win at 69%, came in.

Cruzeiro 3–2 BahiaFri 6 Nov, 00:30

Before kick-off the model had Cruzeiro 48%, the draw 24% and Bahia 28%, so Cruzeiro winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 3.52–0.72: Cruzeiro created the better chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 63%, came in. Pick published: Cruzeiro -0.5 at 1.85 — won.

Vitoria 0–3 FluminenseFri 6 Nov, 23:00

Before kick-off the model had Vitoria 32%, the draw 26% and Fluminense 42%, so Fluminense winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.82–1.90: Fluminense created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 58%, did not come in. Pick published: Vitoria -0.25 at 2.60 — lost.

The numbers this season

Brasileirão Série A has averaged 2.67 goals a game over 339 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 51% of them and both sides scoring in 59%. Home sides have won 49% of matches, 27% have been drawn and away sides have won 24%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.