Sao Paulo v Corinthians

10th0–017th

00:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Sao Paulo		Corinthians
19	Shots	18
5	Shots on target	4
6	Corners	8
13	Fouls	16
5	Yellow cards	3
0	Red cards	2
3	Offsides	1
417	Passes	349
55%	Possession %	45%
1.79	xG	1.24

Over 1.5: 62%
Over 2.5: 34%
Over 3.5: 15%
Both score: 41%

Model pick: Sao Paulo 44%
Likely score: 1-0 15%
Expected goals: 1.22 – 0.84

Advised bets

Half lostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Sao Paulo -0.25

1.80Bet365 · fair 1.69 · qualifies at 1.74+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Sao Paulo -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.80 with Bet365 — Sao Paulo must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 52% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 64%; we judge it at 59%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.69. The offered 1.80 implies only 56%, so the price is 6.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Sao Paulo 1.22, Corinthians 0.84.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Sao Paulo	44.3%	2.26	2.60 Bet365	38.5%	+5.8
Match result	Draw	30.8%	3.24	3.20 Bet365	31.3%	-0.4
Match result	Corinthians	24.9%	4.02	3.85 Betano	26.0%	-1.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	61.8%	1.62	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	-4.9
Total goals	Under 1.5	38.2%	2.62	3.00 Bet365	33.3%	+4.9
Total goals	Over 2.5	34.1%	2.93	2.50 Bet365	40.0%	-5.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	65.9%	1.52	1.57 Betano	63.7%	+2.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	15.5%	6.46	5.00 Bet365	20.0%	-4.5
Total goals	Under 3.5	84.5%	1.18	1.22 Bet365	82.0%	+2.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	40.8%	2.45	2.05 Bet365	48.8%	-8.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	59.2%	1.69	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+3.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Sao Paulo favoured against Corinthians

Our model makes Sao Paulo 44% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 31% and Corinthians at 25%. The goal projection is 1.22 for Sao Paulo against 0.84 for Corinthians — a clear edge to Sao Paulo on expected output. A combined 2.06 goals points to a low-scoring, tight affair, which puts over 2.5 at 34% and both teams to score at 41%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-0 at 15%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-0 15%; 1-1 14%; 0-0 13%; 0-1 10%; 2-0 9%

This season

Season records for Sao Paulo and Corinthians
Sao Paulo		Corinthians
34	Played	34
12-8-14	W-D-L	9-10-15
1.29	Pts / game	1.09
1.15	Goals for / game	1.06
1.15	Goals against / game	1.24
38%	Over 2.5	44%
56%	BTTS	56%
24%	Clean sheets	35%
24%	Failed to score	24%
10-4-3	Home record	6-4-7
2-4-11	Away record	3-6-8
D1	Streak	D1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Sao Paulo · Corinthians

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
16.6	Shots	20.0
4.7	Shots on target	5.6
7.9	Corners	7.1
2.57	Cards	3.33
14.1	Fouls	13.1
52	Possession %	55
1.37	xG	1.56
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.0	Shots	14.1
4.1	Shots on target	5.6
5.3	Corners	3.3
2.90	Cards	3.02
13.0	Fouls	15.0
48	Possession %	45
1.08	xG	1.59
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Sao Paulo	Metric	Corinthians
1.00	Goals scored	1.20 (better)
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	2.60
1.64 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	1.58
	Big chances
4.40	Shots on target	5.40 (better)
16.40	Total shots	17.40 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
7.60	Corners	7.60
50.8	Possession %	55.8 (better)
463	Passes	481 (better)
	Tackles
14.60	Fouls	12.60 (better)
1.00 (better)	Offsides	1.80
	Throw-ins
2.20 (better)	Yellow cards	3.20
0.00	Red cards	0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Sao Paulo wins: 1
Draws: 1
Corinthians wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.75
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 50%

Sao Paulo v Corinthians0–02026-11-05
Corinthians v Sao Paulo3–22026-05-10
Corinthians v Sao Paulo3–12025-11-20
Sao Paulo v Corinthians2–02025-07-20

Brasileirão Série A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	+42	76	Flamengo won 5 of the last 5
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	+39	73	Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	+7	60	Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 5
4	Fluminense	34	16	9	9	+13	57	Fluminense won 2 of the last 5
5	Atletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	+8	54	Atletico Paranaense won 1 of the last 5
6	Bahia	34	14	11	9	+5	53	Bahia won 2 of the last 5
7	Atletico-MG	34	14	8	12	+4	50	Atletico-MG won 2 of the last 5
8	RB Bragantino	34	13	8	13	+5	47	RB Bragantino won 3 of the last 5
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	+1	47	Santos won 1 of the last 5
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	0	44	Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	-7	42	Botafogo won 2 of the last 5
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	-11	42	Coritiba won 1 of the last 5
13	Vasco DA Gama	33	11	8	14	-7	41	Vasco DA Gama won 2 of the last 5
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	-9	40	Mirassol won 2 of the last 5
15	Internacional	34	9	11	14	-4	38	Internacional won 2 of the last 5
16	Vitoria	34	10	8	16	-16	38	Vitoria won 0 of the last 5
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	-6	37	Corinthians won 1 of the last 5
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	-9	37	Gremio won 2 of the last 5
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	-20	29	Remo won 1 of the last 5
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	4	9	20	-35	21	Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5