Predicted Edge

Cruzeiro v Bahia

Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 53rd3–2Bahia won 2 of the last 56th

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Cruzeiro Bahia
22Shots13
8Shots on target5
5Corners7
13Fouls11
3Yellow cards2
—Red cards—
—Offsides—
387Passes487
45%Possession %55%
3.52xG0.72
Over 1.5
84%
Over 2.5
63%
Over 3.5
41%
Both score
64%
Model pick
Cruzeiro 48%
Likely score
1-1 10%
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.40

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Edge strength 5 of 5

Cruzeiro -0.5

1.85Bet365 · fair 1.68 · qualifies at 1.73+ · 2.00u
Why this price?

Back Cruzeiro -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 1.85 with Bet365 — Cruzeiro must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 48% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 67%; we judge it at 60%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.68. The offered 1.85 implies only 54%, so the price is 10.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Cruzeiro 1.86, Bahia 1.40.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
MarketSelectionOursFairBest priceImpliedGap
Match resultCruzeiro48.1%2.081.85 William Hill54.1%-6.0
Match resultDraw23.5%4.254.20 Dafabet23.8%-0.3
Match resultBahia28.4%3.524.50 Bet36522.2%+6.1
Total goalsOver 1.584.1%1.191.19 Betano84.0%+0.1
Total goalsUnder 1.515.9%6.305.50 Betfair18.2%-2.3
Total goalsOver 2.563.2%1.581.57 Bet36563.7%-0.5
Total goalsUnder 2.536.8%2.722.47 Betano40.5%-3.7
Total goalsOver 3.541.1%2.442.62 Bet36538.2%+2.9
Total goalsUnder 3.558.9%1.701.62 Bet36561.7%-2.8
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — Yes64.1%1.561.57 Bet36563.7%+0.4
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score — No35.9%2.782.55 Betfair39.2%-3.3

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Cruzeiro favoured against Bahia

Our model makes Cruzeiro 48% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 24% and Bahia at 28%. The goal projection is 1.86 for Cruzeiro against 1.40 for Bahia — a clear edge to Cruzeiro on expected output. A combined 3.26 goals points to a high-tempo game with chances at both ends, which puts over 2.5 at 63% and both teams to score at 64%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 10%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores
1-1 10%
2-1 9%
1-2 7%
2-0 7%
1-0 7%

This season

Season records for Cruzeiro and Bahia
Cruzeiro Bahia
34Played34
18-6-10W-D-L14-11-9
1.76Pts / game1.56
1.62Goals for / game1.47
1.41Goals against / game1.32
65%Over 2.553%
68%BTTS65%
24%Clean sheets26%
12%Failed to score15%
10-4-3Home record8-6-3
8-2-7Away record6-5-6
W4StreakL1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Cruzeiro · Bahia

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
17.3Shots12.4
7.4Shots on target2.9
5.4Corners5.4
2.57Cards2.29
13.7Fouls13.7
54Possession %48
2.29xG1.49
7 matchessample7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
16.6Shots18.0
5.1Shots on target8.4
7.3Corners8.4
1.77Cards2.77
14.7Fouls11.6
46Possession %52
1.49xG2.33
7 matchessample7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
CruzeiroMetricBahia
2.40 (better)Goals scored1.00
1.40Goals conceded1.40
1.43 (better)Expected goals (xG)1.35
Big chances
7.40 (better)Shots on target2.40
16.80 (better)Total shots12.80
Touches in opp. box
6.20 (better)Corners5.60
58.0 (better)Possession %47.8
504 (better)Passes412
Tackles
14.60Fouls14.40 (better)
2.00Offsides1.00 (better)
Throw-ins
2.00 (better)Yellow cards2.20
0.00Red cards0.00

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →
Cruzeiro wins
3
Draws
0
Bahia wins
0
Goals / game
3.67
Over 2.5
100%
Both score
100%
Brasileirão Série A table
League table
#TeamPWDLGDPtsForm
1Flamengo342374+4276Flamengo won 5 of the last 5
2Palmeiras3421103+3973Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5
3Cruzeiro3418610+760Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 5
4Fluminense341699+1357Fluminense won 2 of the last 5
5Atletico Paranaense3415910+854Atletico Paranaense won 1 of the last 5
6Bahia3414119+553Bahia won 2 of the last 5
7Atletico-MG3414812+450Atletico-MG won 2 of the last 5
8RB Bragantino3413813+547RB Bragantino won 3 of the last 5
9Santos34121111+147Santos won 1 of the last 5
10Sao Paulo3412814044Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5
11Botafogo3411914-742Botafogo won 2 of the last 5
12Coritiba3411914-1142Coritiba won 1 of the last 5
13Vasco DA Gama3311814-741Vasco DA Gama won 2 of the last 5
14Mirassol34101014-940Mirassol won 2 of the last 5
15Internacional3491114-438Internacional won 2 of the last 5
16Vitoria3410816-1638Vitoria won 0 of the last 5
17Corinthians3491015-637Corinthians won 1 of the last 5
18Gremio3491015-937Gremio won 2 of the last 5
19Remo3461117-2029Remo won 1 of the last 5
20Chapecoense-sc334920-3521Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5