Vitoria v Fluminense

16th0–34th

23:00 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Vitoria		Fluminense
11	Shots	14
5	Shots on target	7
9	Corners	6
13	Fouls	19
2	Yellow cards	0
—	Red cards	—
1	Offsides	0
408	Passes	538
44%	Possession %	56%
0.82	xG	1.90

Over 1.5: 78%
Over 2.5: 54%
Over 3.5: 32%
Both score: 58%

Model pick: Fluminense 42%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.30 – 1.53

Advised bets

LostMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Vitoria -0.25

2.60Bet365 · fair 2.44 · qualifies at 2.51+ · 1.02u

Why this price?

Back Vitoria -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 2.60 with Bet365 — Vitoria must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 37% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 44%; we judge it at 41%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.44. The offered 2.60 implies only 38%, so the price is 6.5% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.02 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Vitoria 1.30, Fluminense 1.53.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Vitoria	31.9%	3.14	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	+3.3
Match result	Draw	26.1%	3.83	3.30 BetVictor	30.3%	-4.2
Match result	Fluminense	42.0%	2.38	2.55 Bet365	39.2%	+2.8
Total goals	Over 1.5	78.1%	1.28	1.45 Betano	69.0%	+9.1
Total goals	Under 1.5	21.9%	4.56	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-6.6
Total goals	Over 2.5	53.9%	1.86	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+11.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	46.1%	2.17	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	-9.4
Total goals	Over 3.5	31.6%	3.17	4.60 BetVictor	21.7%	+9.9
Total goals	Under 3.5	68.4%	1.46	1.30 Bet365	76.9%	-8.5
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	57.7%	1.73	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	+7.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.3%	2.36	2.00 Bet365	50.0%	-7.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Fluminense favoured against Vitoria

Our model makes Vitoria 32% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 26% and Fluminense at 42%. The goal projection is 1.30 for Vitoria against 1.53 for Fluminense — a slight edge to Fluminense on expected output. A combined 2.84 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 54% and both teams to score at 58%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-2 9%; 0-1 8%; 2-1 8%; 1-0 7%

This season

Season records for Vitoria and Fluminense
Vitoria		Fluminense
34	Played	34
10-8-16	W-D-L	16-9-9
1.12	Pts / game	1.68
1.03	Goals for / game	1.62
1.50	Goals against / game	1.24
41%	Over 2.5	59%
41%	BTTS	71%
32%	Clean sheets	21%
32%	Failed to score	12%
10-2-5	Home record	12-3-2
0-6-11	Away record	4-6-7
L2	Streak	W2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Vitoria · Fluminense

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
12.4	Shots	14.0
4.7	Shots on target	5.6
4.4	Corners	4.3
1.77	Cards	2.14
11.6	Fouls	16.1
47	Possession %	60
0.93	xG	1.57
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.7	Shots	13.1
5.0	Shots on target	4.4
5.9	Corners	5.6
2.29	Cards	2.00
16.7	Fouls	15.6
53	Possession %	40
1.64	xG	1.49
7 matches	sample	7 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Vitoria	Metric	Fluminense
1.60 (better)	Goals scored	1.20
1.40	Goals conceded	1.40
1.27 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.94
	Big chances
5.40 (better)	Shots on target	3.60
13.80 (better)	Total shots	11.00
	Touches in opp. box
3.40	Corners	5.60 (better)
46.6	Possession %	63.2 (better)
424	Passes	669 (better)
	Tackles
11.20 (better)	Fouls	13.40
3.33	Offsides	0.75 (better)
	Throw-ins
1.60	Yellow cards	1.40 (better)
1.00	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Vitoria wins: 0
Draws: 1
Fluminense wins: 2
Goals / game: 2.67
Over 2.5: 67%
Both score: 33%

Vitoria v Fluminense0–32026-11-06
Fluminense v Vitoria2–22026-05-09
Vitoria v Fluminense0–12025-09-20

Brasileirão Série A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	+42	76	Flamengo won 5 of the last 5
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	+39	73	Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	+7	60	Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 5
4	Fluminense	34	16	9	9	+13	57	Fluminense won 2 of the last 5
5	Atletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	+8	54	Atletico Paranaense won 1 of the last 5
6	Bahia	34	14	11	9	+5	53	Bahia won 2 of the last 5
7	Atletico-MG	34	14	8	12	+4	50	Atletico-MG won 2 of the last 5
8	RB Bragantino	34	13	8	13	+5	47	RB Bragantino won 3 of the last 5
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	+1	47	Santos won 1 of the last 5
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	0	44	Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	-7	42	Botafogo won 2 of the last 5
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	-11	42	Coritiba won 1 of the last 5
13	Vasco DA Gama	33	11	8	14	-7	41	Vasco DA Gama won 2 of the last 5
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	-9	40	Mirassol won 2 of the last 5
15	Internacional	34	9	11	14	-4	38	Internacional won 2 of the last 5
16	Vitoria	34	10	8	16	-16	38	Vitoria won 0 of the last 5
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	-6	37	Corinthians won 1 of the last 5
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	-9	37	Gremio won 2 of the last 5
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	-20	29	Remo won 1 of the last 5
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	4	9	20	-35	21	Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5