Chapecoense-sc v Mirassol

20th1–214th

22:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Chapecoense-sc		Mirassol
12	Shots	15
4	Shots on target	4
4	Corners	5
19	Fouls	14
3	Yellow cards	1
—	Red cards	—
—	Offsides	—
437	Passes	494
47%	Possession %	53%
0.54	xG	2.19

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 52%
Over 3.5: 30%
Both score: 55%

Model pick: Mirassol 47%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.15 – 1.60

Advised bets

Lost

Free pick

Chapecoense-sc -0.5

3.05Betano · fair 2.78 · qualifies at 2.87+ · 1.17u

Why this price?

Back Chapecoense-sc -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 3.05 with Betano — Chapecoense-sc must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 27% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 42%; we judge it at 36%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.78. The offered 3.05 implies only 33%, so the price is 9.6% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.17 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Chapecoense-sc 1.15, Mirassol 1.60.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Chapecoense-sc	26.8%	3.73	3.80 Bet365	26.3%	+0.5
Match result	Draw	26.0%	3.85	3.65 Betano	27.4%	-1.4
Match result	Mirassol	47.2%	2.12	2.20 Bet365	45.5%	+1.7
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.6%	1.31	1.25 Betano	80.0%	-3.4
Total goals	Under 1.5	23.4%	4.27	4.33 Bet365	23.1%	+0.3
Total goals	Over 2.5	51.8%	1.93	1.85 Bet365	54.1%	-2.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	29.7%	3.37	3.20 Bet365	31.3%	-1.6
Total goals	Under 3.5	70.3%	1.42	1.50 Bet365	66.7%	+3.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	55.1%	1.81	1.70 Bet365	58.8%	-3.7
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	44.9%	2.23	2.30 William Hill	43.5%	+1.4
Total goals	Under 2.5	48.2%	2.08	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	+0.6

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Mirassol favoured against Chapecoense-sc

Our model makes Chapecoense-sc 27% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 26% and Mirassol at 47%. The goal projection is 1.15 for Chapecoense-sc against 1.60 for Mirassol — a clear edge to Mirassol on expected output. A combined 2.75 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 0-1 10%; 1-2 9%; 0-2 8%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Chapecoense-sc and Mirassol
Chapecoense-sc		Mirassol
33	Played	34
4-9-20	W-D-L	10-10-14
0.64	Pts / game	1.18
1.00	Goals for / game	1.15
2.06	Goals against / game	1.41
61%	Over 2.5	47%
64%	BTTS	65%
6%	Clean sheets	9%
33%	Failed to score	26%
3-5-8	Home record	7-6-4
1-4-12	Away record	3-4-10
L2	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Chapecoense-sc · Mirassol

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
11.3	Shots	12.7
3.5	Shots on target	3.2
4.5	Corners	4.0
1.83	Cards	2.23
13.8	Fouls	11.7
43	Possession %	46
0.78	xG	1.73
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.5	Shots	20.5
7.7	Shots on target	5.0
5.3	Corners	5.7
0.83	Cards	2.53
10.8	Fouls	13.3
57	Possession %	54
2.00	xG	1.63
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Chapecoense-sc	Metric	Mirassol
0.80	Goals scored	1.60 (better)
2.20	Goals conceded	0.60 (better)
0.71	Expected goals (xG)	1.94 (better)
	Big chances
3.50	Shots on target	3.75 (better)
11.75	Total shots	14.75 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
4.75 (better)	Corners	4.25
42.5	Possession %	45.8 (better)
395	Passes	439 (better)
	Tackles
14.50	Fouls	12.00 (better)
1.33 (better)	Offsides	1.75
	Throw-ins
2.00 (better)	Yellow cards	3.00
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Chapecoense-sc wins: 0
Draws: 1
Mirassol wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.50
Over 2.5: 50%
Both score: 100%

Chapecoense-sc v Mirassol1–22026-11-03
Mirassol v Chapecoense-sc1–12026-05-10

Brasileirão Série A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	+42	76	Flamengo won 5 of the last 5
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	+39	73	Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	+7	60	Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 5
4	Fluminense	34	16	9	9	+13	57	Fluminense won 2 of the last 5
5	Atletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	+8	54	Atletico Paranaense won 1 of the last 5
6	Bahia	34	14	11	9	+5	53	Bahia won 2 of the last 5
7	Atletico-MG	34	14	8	12	+4	50	Atletico-MG won 2 of the last 5
8	RB Bragantino	34	13	8	13	+5	47	RB Bragantino won 3 of the last 5
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	+1	47	Santos won 1 of the last 5
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	0	44	Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	-7	42	Botafogo won 2 of the last 5
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	-11	42	Coritiba won 1 of the last 5
13	Vasco DA Gama	33	11	8	14	-7	41	Vasco DA Gama won 2 of the last 5
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	-9	40	Mirassol won 2 of the last 5
15	Internacional	34	9	11	14	-4	38	Internacional won 2 of the last 5
16	Vitoria	34	10	8	16	-16	38	Vitoria won 0 of the last 5
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	-6	37	Corinthians won 1 of the last 5
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	-9	37	Gremio won 2 of the last 5
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	-20	29	Remo won 1 of the last 5
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	4	9	20	-35	21	Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5