Brasileirão Série A · Review

Brasileirão Série A matchweek 32 review: results, xG and what the model said

Every Brasileirão Série A result from matchweek 32 against the model's pre-match probabilities, with expected goals where available and each published pick's outcome.

Published 27 Oct 2026, updated 27 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Brasileirão Série A, matchweek 32 (24–26 October 2026), is complete: ten matches, 26 goals (2.60 a game), six home wins, three draws and one away win. Over 2.5 goals landed in four of the ten and both teams scored in six.

The result the model rated least likely was Chapecoense-sc's win in Chapecoense-sc v Fluminense (2–1), which it had at 20%; the one it rated most likely was Palmeiras's win in Palmeiras v RB Bragantino (2–0), at 58%.

After the round, Flamengo lead on 70 points, one point clear of Palmeiras, with Atletico Paranaense third on 54. The bottom three are Corinthians (33), Remo (26), Chapecoense-sc (21).

Match by match

Cruzeiro 1–0 RemoSat 24 Oct, 00:00

Before kick-off the model had Cruzeiro 58%, the draw 22% and Remo 20%, so Cruzeiro winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.01–0.32: Cruzeiro created the better chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 63%, did not come in. Pick published: Cruzeiro -0.75 at 1.42 — half won.

Internacional 3–0 BotafogoSat 24 Oct, 20:30

Before kick-off the model had Internacional 39%, the draw 26% and Botafogo 35%, so Internacional winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 2.81–0.62: Internacional created the better chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 57%, came in.

Mirassol 1–1 Sao PauloSat 24 Oct, 20:30

Before kick-off the model had Mirassol 38%, the draw 31% and Sao Paulo 31%, with Mirassol favoured; it put the draw at 31%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.32–1.13: an even contest on chances. The headline call, both teams to score: no at 57%, did not come in.

Vitoria 1–1 Atletico ParanaenseSat 24 Oct, 20:30

Before kick-off the model had Vitoria 30%, the draw 25% and Atletico Paranaense 45%, with Atletico Paranaense favoured; it put the draw at 25%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 1.69–0.57: Vitoria created the better chances. The headline call, Atletico Paranaense to win at 45%, did not come in.

Palmeiras 2–0 RB BragantinoSat 24 Oct, 22:30

Before kick-off the model had Palmeiras 58%, the draw 24% and RB Bragantino 17%, so Palmeiras winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-0. Expected goals were 3.86–0.44: Palmeiras created the better chances. The headline call, Palmeiras to win at 58%, came in.

Vasco DA Gama 3–2 CorinthiansSat 24 Oct, 22:30

Before kick-off the model had Vasco DA Gama 48%, the draw 28% and Corinthians 24%, so Vasco DA Gama winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.79–0.77: Vasco DA Gama created the better chances. The headline call, under 2.5 goals at 57%, did not come in.

Chapecoense-sc 2–1 FluminenseSat 24 Oct, 23:30

Before kick-off the model had Chapecoense-sc 20%, the draw 22% and Fluminense 57%, with Fluminense favoured; it put Chapecoense-sc winning at 20%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 0.59–1.44: Fluminense created the better chances, so the result ran against the balance of play. The headline call, Fluminense to win at 57%, did not come in.

Santos 1–1 BahiaSun 25 Oct, 01:00

Before kick-off the model had Santos 44%, the draw 24% and Bahia 32%, with Santos favoured; it put the draw at 24%. The likeliest score, 1-1, was the one that came. Expected goals were 2.59–1.78: Santos created the better chances. The headline call, over 2.5 goals at 64%, did not come in.

Coritiba 0–1 GremioMon 26 Oct, 22:30

Before kick-off the model had Coritiba 39%, the draw 27% and Gremio 35%, with Coritiba favoured; it put Gremio winning at 35%. The likeliest score had been 1-1. Expected goals were 1.21–1.87: Gremio created the better chances. The headline call, both teams to score at 57%, did not come in. Pick published: Coritiba -0.5 at 2.10 (free pick) — lost.

Flamengo 3–2 Atletico-MGMon 26 Oct, 23:00

Before kick-off the model had Flamengo 58%, the draw 25% and Atletico-MG 17%, so Flamengo winning was the result it rated likeliest. The likeliest score had been 1-0. Expected goals were 2.94–1.01: Flamengo created the better chances. The headline call, Flamengo to win at 58%, came in. Pick published: Under 2.5 at 2.27 — lost.

The numbers this season

Brasileirão Série A has averaged 2.66 goals a game over 319 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 51% of them and both sides scoring in 59%. Home sides have won 48% of matches, 28% have been drawn and away sides have won 24%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these figures

The pre-match probabilities quoted here are the ones published on each match page at least 24 hours before kick-off; nothing is revised afterwards. Expected goals are the provider's full-match figures where available. Every pick the model published on the round is listed above with its outcome, losses included, as it is on the day's own page. No tally across matches or days is kept anywhere on the site: a single round says little either way, and the site publishes every pick rather than a summary of them.