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Brasileirão Série A predictions: matchweek 32 (24–26 October 2026)

Every Brasileirão Série A match in matchweek 32 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 17 Oct 2026, updated 19 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Brasileirão Série A, matchweek 32: ten matches, played across 24–26 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is Palmeiras, 58% to beat RB Bragantino at home; the most evenly balanced game is Coritiba v Gremio (Coritiba 39%, draw 27%, Gremio 35%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Santos v Bahia, at 3.29; the tightest looks Mirassol v Sao Paulo, at 2.11.

Going into the round, Flamengo lead on 67 points, one point clear of Palmeiras, with Atletico Paranaense third on 53. The bottom three are Gremio (31), Remo (26), Chapecoense-sc (18).

The numbers this season

Brasileirão Série A has averaged 2.67 goals a game over 308 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 51% of them and both sides scoring in 59%. Home sides have won 47% of matches, 28% have been drawn and away sides have won 25%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Cruzeiro v RemoSat 24 Oct, 00:00

Our model makes Cruzeiro 58%, the draw 22% and Remo 20%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.26 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 63%. Cruzeiro are 5th on 51 points from 31; Remo are 19th on 26 points from 31. Cruzeiro have won three of their last five; Remo are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats).

Internacional v BotafogoSat 24 Oct, 20:30

Our model makes Internacional 39%, the draw 26% and Botafogo 35%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.96 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 57%. Internacional are 16th on 32 points from 31; Botafogo are 11th on 39 points from 31. Internacional have won two of their last five; Botafogo have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Mirassol v Sao PauloSat 24 Oct, 20:30

Our model makes Mirassol 38%, the draw 31% and Sao Paulo 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.11 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 43%. The headline call is both teams to score: no at 57%. Mirassol are 13th on 36 points from 31; Sao Paulo are 9th on 42 points from 31. Mirassol have won two of their last five; Sao Paulo have won three of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Mirassol wins, draws and Sao Paulo wins.

Vitoria v Atletico ParanaenseSat 24 Oct, 20:30

Our model makes Vitoria 30%, the draw 25% and Atletico Paranaense 45%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.06 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is Atletico Paranaense to win at 45%. Vitoria are 14th on 36 points from 30; Atletico Paranaense are 3rd on 53 points from 31. Vitoria have won two of their last five; Atletico Paranaense have won two of their last five.

Palmeiras v RB BragantinoSat 24 Oct, 22:30

Our model makes Palmeiras 58%, the draw 24% and RB Bragantino 17%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (12%), 2.62 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 48%. The headline call is Palmeiras to win at 58%. Palmeiras are 2nd on 66 points from 31; RB Bragantino are 10th on 41 points from 31. Palmeiras are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); RB Bragantino have won one of their last five. Palmeiras have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Vasco DA Gama v CorinthiansSat 24 Oct, 22:30

Our model makes Vasco DA Gama 48%, the draw 28% and Corinthians 24%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.38 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 57%. Vasco DA Gama are 15th on 35 points from 30; Corinthians are 17th on 32 points from 30. Vasco DA Gama have won three of their last five; Corinthians have lost all of their last five. Corinthians have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Chapecoense-sc v FluminenseSat 24 Oct, 23:30

Our model makes Chapecoense-sc 20%, the draw 22% and Fluminense 57%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.13 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is Fluminense to win at 57%. Chapecoense-sc are 20th on 18 points from 30; Fluminense are 4th on 51 points from 31. Chapecoense-sc are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Fluminense have won two of their last five.

Santos v BahiaSun 25 Oct, 01:00

Our model makes Santos 44%, the draw 24% and Bahia 32%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.29 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 65%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 64%. Santos are 8th on 45 points from 31; Bahia are 7th on 49 points from 31. Santos have won three of their last five; Bahia have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Coritiba v GremioMon 26 Oct, 22:30

Our model makes Coritiba 39%, the draw 27% and Gremio 35%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.76 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is both teams to score at 57%. Coritiba are 12th on 39 points from 31; Gremio are 18th on 31 points from 31. Coritiba are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Gremio are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats).

Flamengo v Atletico-MGMon 26 Oct, 23:00

Our model makes Flamengo 58%, the draw 25% and Atletico-MG 17%. The likeliest score is 1-0 (13%), 2.57 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 47%. The headline call is Flamengo to win at 58%. Flamengo are 1st on 67 points from 31; Atletico-MG are 6th on 50 points from 31. Flamengo are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw); Atletico-MG are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws). Flamengo have won two of the sides' last three meetings.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published five picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.