Coritiba v Gremio

11th0–117th

22:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Coritiba		Gremio
12	Shots	17
4	Shots on target	6
5	Corners	10
10	Fouls	16
1	Yellow cards	0
0	Red cards	0
0	Offsides	3
319	Passes	429
42%	Possession %	58%
1.21	xG	1.87

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 52%
Over 3.5: 30%
Both score: 57%

Model pick: Coritiba 39%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.42 – 1.34

Advised bets

Lost

Free pick

Coritiba -0.5

2.10Bet365 · fair 1.92 · qualifies at 1.98+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Coritiba -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.10 with Bet365 — Coritiba must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 39% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 61%; we judge it at 52%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.92. The offered 2.10 implies only 48%, so the price is 9.4% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Coritiba 1.42, Gremio 1.34.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Coritiba	38.5%	2.60	2.27 Betano	44.1%	-5.5
Match result	Draw	26.7%	3.75	3.50 Betfair	28.6%	-1.9
Match result	Gremio	34.8%	2.87	3.35 Betano	29.9%	+4.9
Total goals	Over 1.5	76.8%	1.30	1.33 Betano	75.2%	+1.6
Total goals	Under 1.5	23.2%	4.30	3.80 Betfair	26.3%	-3.1
Total goals	Over 2.5	52.0%	1.92	2.05 Bet365	48.8%	+3.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	48.0%	2.08	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	-3.3
Total goals	Over 3.5	29.9%	3.35	3.60 BetVictor	27.8%	+2.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	70.1%	1.43	1.33 Bet365	75.2%	-5.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	56.5%	1.77	1.80 Bet365	55.6%	+1.0
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	43.5%	2.30	2.12 Betano	47.2%	-3.7

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Coritiba v Gremio: too close to call

Our model makes Coritiba 39% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 27% and Gremio at 35%. The goal projection is 1.42 for Coritiba against 1.34 for Gremio — almost nothing to Coritiba on expected output. A combined 2.76 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 2-1 9%; 1-0 8%; 1-2 8%; 0-1 8%

This season

Season records for Coritiba and Gremio
Coritiba		Gremio
34	Played	33
11-9-14	W-D-L	9-10-14
1.24	Pts / game	1.12
1.18	Goals for / game	1.12
1.50	Goals against / game	1.33
47%	Over 2.5	42%
47%	BTTS	58%
21%	Clean sheets	24%
35%	Failed to score	30%
6-5-6	Home record	8-5-4
5-4-8	Away record	1-5-10
L1	Streak	W2

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Coritiba · Gremio

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
13.2	Shots	14.8
3.4	Shots on target	4.8
5.4	Corners	6.0
1.80	Cards	3.03
13.0	Fouls	15.5
42	Possession %	44
1.34	xG	1.72
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
17.2	Shots	18.2
6.4	Shots on target	6.0
7.0	Corners	7.5
0.60	Cards	3.00
13.2	Fouls	15.7
58	Possession %	57
1.18	xG	1.23
5 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Coritiba	Metric	Gremio
0.80	Goals scored	1.20 (better)
2.80	Goals conceded	1.80 (better)
0.90	Expected goals (xG)	1.53 (better)
	Big chances
2.80	Shots on target	4.20 (better)
12.20	Total shots	13.20 (better)
	Touches in opp. box
5.00 (better)	Corners	4.60
42.6	Possession %	47.4 (better)
346	Passes	426 (better)
	Tackles
11.60 (better)	Fouls	15.00
1.20	Offsides	1.20
	Throw-ins
2.40 (better)	Yellow cards	2.80
0.25 (better)	Red cards	0.50

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Coritiba wins: 0
Draws: 0
Gremio wins: 2
Goals / game: 1.00
Over 2.5: 0%
Both score: 0%

Coritiba v Gremio0–12026-10-26
Gremio v Coritiba1–02026-04-26

Brasileirão Série A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Flamengo	33	22	7	4	+40	73	Flamengo won 4 of the last 5
2	Palmeiras	33	20	10	3	+34	70	Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5
3	Cruzeiro	33	17	6	10	+6	57	Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 5
4	Fluminense	33	15	9	9	+10	54	Fluminense won 2 of the last 5
5	Atletico Paranaense	33	15	9	9	+10	54	Atletico Paranaense won 1 of the last 5
6	Bahia	33	14	11	8	+6	53	Bahia won 2 of the last 5
7	Atletico-MG	33	14	8	11	+5	50	Atletico-MG won 2 of the last 5
8	RB Bragantino	34	13	8	13	+5	47	RB Bragantino won 3 of the last 5
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	+1	47	Santos won 1 of the last 5
10	Sao Paulo	33	12	7	14	0	43	Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5
11	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	-11	42	Coritiba won 1 of the last 5
12	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	-9	40	Mirassol won 2 of the last 5
13	Botafogo	33	10	9	14	-8	39	Botafogo won 1 of the last 5
14	Internacional	34	9	11	14	-4	38	Internacional won 2 of the last 5
15	Vasco DA Gama	32	10	8	14	-9	38	Vasco DA Gama won 2 of the last 5
16	Vitoria	33	10	8	15	-13	38	Vitoria won 1 of the last 5
17	Gremio	33	9	10	14	-7	37	Gremio won 2 of the last 5
18	Corinthians	33	9	9	15	-6	36	Corinthians won 1 of the last 5
19	Remo	33	6	11	16	-15	29	Remo won 1 of the last 5
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	4	9	20	-35	21	Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5