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Brasileirão Série A predictions: matchweek 33 (28–30 October 2026)

Every Brasileirão Série A match in matchweek 33 with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score, form, table positions and head-to-head behind each call.

Published 21 Oct 2026, updated 23 Oct 2026 · Written from the site’s own data

Brasileirão Série A, matchweek 33: ten matches, played across 28–30 October 2026. Our model has published a forecast for every one.

The strongest favourite is RB Bragantino, 64% to beat Chapecoense-sc at home; the most evenly balanced game is Corinthians v Mirassol (Corinthians 36%, draw 30%, Mirassol 33%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Santos v Palmeiras, at 3.26; the tightest looks Bahia v Sao Paulo, at 2.19.

Going into the round, Flamengo lead on 67 points, one point clear of Palmeiras, with Atletico Paranaense third on 53. The bottom three are Gremio (31), Remo (26), Chapecoense-sc (18).

The numbers this season

Brasileirão Série A has averaged 2.66 goals a game over 309 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 51% of them and both sides scoring in 59%. Home sides have won 47% of matches, 28% have been drawn and away sides have won 25%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

Match by match

Fluminense v InternacionalWed 28 Oct, 22:30

Our model makes Fluminense 52%, the draw 25% and Internacional 23%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.80 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is Fluminense to win at 52%. Fluminense are 4th on 51 points from 31; Internacional are 17th on 32 points from 31. Fluminense have won two of their last five; Internacional have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Fluminense wins, draws and Internacional wins.

RB Bragantino v Chapecoense-scWed 28 Oct, 22:30

Our model makes RB Bragantino 64%, the draw 21% and Chapecoense-sc 15%. The likeliest score is 2-0 (11%), 2.98 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 52%. The headline call is RB Bragantino to win at 64%. RB Bragantino are 10th on 41 points from 31; Chapecoense-sc are 20th on 18 points from 30. RB Bragantino have won one of their last five; Chapecoense-sc are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats).

Santos v PalmeirasWed 28 Oct, 22:30

Our model makes Santos 26%, the draw 23% and Palmeiras 51%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.26 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 63%. The headline call is Palmeiras to win at 51%. Santos are 8th on 45 points from 31; Palmeiras are 2nd on 66 points from 31. Santos have won three of their last five; Palmeiras are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). One of the sides' last three meetings was drawn.

Bahia v Sao PauloThu 29 Oct, 00:30

Our model makes Bahia 39%, the draw 30% and Sao Paulo 31%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.19 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 45%. The headline call is both teams to score: no at 55%. Bahia are 7th on 49 points from 31; Sao Paulo are 9th on 42 points from 31. Bahia have won two of their last five; Sao Paulo have won three of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Remo v BotafogoThu 29 Oct, 00:30

Our model makes Remo 34%, the draw 26% and Botafogo 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.79 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is both teams to score at 57%. Remo are 19th on 26 points from 31; Botafogo are 11th on 39 points from 31. Remo are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); Botafogo have won two of their last five.

Atletico-MG v CruzeiroThu 29 Oct, 22:30

Our model makes Atletico-MG 45%, the draw 25% and Cruzeiro 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (11%), 3.10 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 60%. Atletico-MG are 6th on 50 points from 31; Cruzeiro are 5th on 51 points from 31. Atletico-MG are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Cruzeiro have won three of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Coritiba v VitoriaThu 29 Oct, 22:30

Our model makes Coritiba 40%, the draw 25% and Vitoria 35%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 3.02 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 58%. Coritiba are 12th on 39 points from 31; Vitoria are 13th on 37 points from 31. Coritiba are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); Vitoria have won one of their last five.

Vasco DA Gama v FlamengoThu 29 Oct, 23:00

Our model makes Vasco DA Gama 20%, the draw 25% and Flamengo 54%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.63 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 50%. The headline call is Flamengo to win at 54%. Vasco DA Gama are 15th on 35 points from 30; Flamengo are 1st on 67 points from 31. Vasco DA Gama have won three of their last five; Flamengo are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). Two of the sides' last two meetings were drawn.

Gremio v Atletico ParanaenseFri 30 Oct, 00:30

Our model makes Gremio 31%, the draw 26% and Atletico Paranaense 43%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.79 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is both teams to score at 57%. Gremio are 18th on 31 points from 31; Atletico Paranaense are 3rd on 53 points from 31. Gremio are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); Atletico Paranaense have won two of their last five.

Corinthians v MirassolFri 30 Oct, 23:00

Our model makes Corinthians 36%, the draw 30% and Mirassol 33%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.21 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 45%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 62%. Corinthians are 16th on 33 points from 31; Mirassol are 14th on 36 points from 31. Corinthians are without a win in five (one draw, four defeats); Mirassol have won two of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Corinthians wins, draws and Mirassol wins.

How to read these

Every probability above comes from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals, and every market on a match page is derived from the same scoreline distribution, so the likely score, the totals and the match result cannot contradict each other. A 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten; nothing here is a certainty.

The model has published 14 picks on this round so far, where the best available price stands clear of its own probability and the market's consensus together. Each day's free picks appear on the homepage by 09:00 UK time; the rest are for members, and every pick is listed with its outcome once the day is over.