Remo v Botafogo

19th2–111th

00:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Remo		Botafogo
11	Shots	13
4	Shots on target	2
3	Corners	8
11	Fouls	15
0	Yellow cards	1
—	Red cards	—
1	Offsides	2
341	Passes	611
35%	Possession %	65%
0.58	xG	0.88

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 53%
Over 3.5: 31%
Both score: 57%

Model pick: Botafogo 39%
Likely score: 1-1 13%
Expected goals: 1.34 – 1.45

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Remo -0.5

2.43BetVictor · fair 2.25 · qualifies at 2.31+ · 1.43u

Why this price?

Back Remo -0.5 on the Asian handicap at 2.43 with BetVictor — Remo must win by more than 0.5 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 34% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 51%; we judge it at 45%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 2.25. The offered 2.43 implies only 41%, so the price is 8.2% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 1.43 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Remo 1.34, Botafogo 1.45.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Remo	34.4%	2.91	2.90 Dafabet	34.5%	-0.1
Match result	Draw	26.5%	3.78	3.70 Dafabet	27.0%	-0.6
Match result	Botafogo	39.1%	2.56	2.70 Dafabet	37.0%	+2.1
Total goals	Over 1.5	77.4%	1.29	1.24 Betano	80.6%	-3.3
Total goals	Under 1.5	22.6%	4.42	4.50 Betfair	22.2%	+0.4
Total goals	Over 2.5	52.9%	1.89	1.73 Bet365	57.8%	-4.9
Total goals	Under 2.5	47.1%	2.12	2.18 Betano	45.9%	+1.2
Total goals	Over 3.5	30.6%	3.26	2.88 BetVictor	34.7%	-4.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	69.4%	1.44	1.47 Betano	68.0%	+1.3
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	57.2%	1.75	1.62 William Hill	61.7%	-4.6
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	42.8%	2.33	2.38 Betfair	42.0%	+0.8

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Remo v Botafogo: too close to call

Our model makes Remo 34% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 26% and Botafogo at 39%. The goal projection is 1.34 for Remo against 1.45 for Botafogo — a slight edge to Botafogo on expected output. A combined 2.79 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 57%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 13%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. Note that even our favoured side is under 45% to win outright, so this is a fixture where the draw does a lot of work and confident calls are not warranted. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 13%; 1-2 9%; 0-1 8%; 2-1 8%; 1-0 8%

This season

Season records for Remo and Botafogo
Remo		Botafogo
34	Played	34
6-11-17	W-D-L	11-9-14
0.85	Pts / game	1.24
1.09	Goals for / game	1.35
1.68	Goals against / game	1.56
50%	Over 2.5	62%
62%	BTTS	65%
12%	Clean sheets	18%
32%	Failed to score	24%
4-7-6	Home record	7-6-4
2-4-11	Away record	4-3-10
L1	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Remo · Botafogo

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.7	Shots	14.3
4.8	Shots on target	4.5
6.8	Corners	6.2
2.33	Cards	1.33
13.2	Fouls	13.0
47	Possession %	51
0.61	xG	1.29
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
15.2	Shots	13.3
5.2	Shots on target	4.2
5.5	Corners	7.0
1.33	Cards	1.50
14.8	Fouls	12.5
53	Possession %	49
2.03	xG	1.03
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Remo	Metric	Botafogo
0.80	Goals scored	1.20 (better)
1.20 (better)	Goals conceded	1.40
1.05	Expected goals (xG)	1.24 (better)
	Big chances
5.00	Shots on target	6.00 (better)
17.00 (better)	Total shots	14.40
	Touches in opp. box
8.00 (better)	Corners	5.00
47.8	Possession %	48.0 (better)
445	Passes	452 (better)
	Tackles
11.20	Fouls	10.40 (better)
2.00	Offsides	1.20 (better)
	Throw-ins
2.20	Yellow cards	1.00 (better)
0.50	Red cards	0.00 (better)

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Remo wins: 2
Draws: 0
Botafogo wins: 0
Goals / game: 3.00
Over 2.5: 100%
Both score: 100%

Remo v Botafogo2–12026-10-29
Botafogo v Remo1–22026-05-02

Brasileirão Série A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	+42	76	Flamengo won 5 of the last 5
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	+39	73	Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	+7	60	Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 5
4	Fluminense	34	16	9	9	+13	57	Fluminense won 2 of the last 5
5	Atletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	+8	54	Atletico Paranaense won 1 of the last 5
6	Bahia	34	14	11	9	+5	53	Bahia won 2 of the last 5
7	Atletico-MG	34	14	8	12	+4	50	Atletico-MG won 2 of the last 5
8	RB Bragantino	34	13	8	13	+5	47	RB Bragantino won 3 of the last 5
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	+1	47	Santos won 1 of the last 5
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	0	44	Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	-7	42	Botafogo won 2 of the last 5
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	-11	42	Coritiba won 1 of the last 5
13	Vasco DA Gama	33	11	8	14	-7	41	Vasco DA Gama won 2 of the last 5
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	-9	40	Mirassol won 2 of the last 5
15	Internacional	34	9	11	14	-4	38	Internacional won 2 of the last 5
16	Vitoria	34	10	8	16	-16	38	Vitoria won 0 of the last 5
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	-6	37	Corinthians won 1 of the last 5
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	-9	37	Gremio won 2 of the last 5
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	-20	29	Remo won 1 of the last 5
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	4	9	20	-35	21	Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5