Fluminense v Internacional

4th2–115th

22:30 UTC

Match statistics

Full-time statistics
Fluminense		Internacional
16	Shots	13
6	Shots on target	5
8	Corners	5
15	Fouls	21
2	Yellow cards	2
0	Red cards	0
1	Offsides	2
767	Passes	233
76%	Possession %	24%
1.57	xG	1.10

Over 1.5: 77%
Over 2.5: 53%
Over 3.5: 31%
Both score: 55%

Model pick: Fluminense 52%
Likely score: 1-1 12%
Expected goals: 1.73 – 1.07

Advised bets

WonMembers’ pick, published now the day is over.

★ Members’ pick

Fluminense -0.25

1.75Bet365 · fair 1.59 · qualifies at 1.64+ · 2.00u

Why this price?

Back Fluminense -0.25 on the Asian handicap at 1.75 with Bet365 — Fluminense must win by more than 0.25 goals.

Our model puts the chance at 60% and the bookmakers' own consensus, margin removed, at 65%; we judge it at 63%, weighting the market more than the model, which is a fair price of 1.59. The offered 1.75 implies only 57%, so the price is 9.9% better than our estimate says it should be. That gap is the edge.

Stake 2.00 units of a 100-unit bank: the size follows the edge (a quarter-Kelly fraction), never more than 2 units.

Projected goals: Fluminense 1.73, Internacional 1.07.

The edge is an estimate and carries model error; it can be wrong, and a losing run is normal.

Our probabilities against the market

Our probability and fair price for every market we publish, next to the best price we last captured and the probability it implies (bookmaker margin included).
Market	Selection	Ours	Fair	Best price	Implied	Gap
Match result	Fluminense	52.3%	1.91	2.02 Dafabet	49.5%	+2.8
Match result	Draw	24.9%	4.02	3.65 Betano	27.4%	-2.5
Match result	Internacional	22.8%	4.39	4.50 Bet365	22.2%	+0.6
Total goals	Over 1.5	77.4%	1.29	1.40 Bet365	71.4%	+6.0
Total goals	Under 1.5	22.6%	4.42	3.50 Bet365	28.6%	-6.0
Total goals	Over 2.5	53.0%	1.89	2.10 Bet365	47.6%	+5.3
Total goals	Under 2.5	47.0%	2.13	1.85 Bet365	54.1%	-7.0
Total goals	Over 3.5	30.7%	3.25	3.50 BetVictor	28.6%	+2.1
Total goals	Under 3.5	69.3%	1.44	1.33 Bet365	75.2%	-5.9
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — Yes	54.5%	1.83	1.95 Bet365	51.3%	+3.2
Both teams to score	Both teams to score — No	45.5%	2.20	2.00 Betfair	50.0%	-4.5

A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.

Fluminense favoured against Internacional

Our model makes Fluminense 52% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 25% and Internacional at 23%. The goal projection is 1.73 for Fluminense against 1.07 for Internacional — a substantial edge to Fluminense on expected output. A combined 2.80 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 53% and both teams to score at 55%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.

Most likely scores: 1-1 12%; 1-0 10%; 2-1 10%; 2-0 9%; 0-0 7%

This season

Season records for Fluminense and Internacional
Fluminense		Internacional
33	Played	34
15-9-9	W-D-L	9-11-14
1.64	Pts / game	1.12
1.58	Goals for / game	1.12
1.27	Goals against / game	1.24
58%	Over 2.5	41%
73%	BTTS	56%
18%	Clean sheets	24%
12%	Failed to score	29%
12-3-2	Home record	6-5-6
3-6-7	Away record	3-6-8
W1	Streak	W1

2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Fluminense · Internacional

Full-match statistics, per game this season

Produced

Season per-match averages, produced
14.0	Shots	15.5
5.3	Shots on target	5.3
4.0	Corners	6.5
2.50	Cards	3.50
15.7	Fouls	18.2
61	Possession %	38
1.50	xG	1.40
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Conceded

Season per-match averages, conceded
13.5	Shots	15.2
4.3	Shots on target	4.7
5.0	Corners	6.7
2.00	Cards	3.00
16.0	Fouls	13.7
39	Possession %	62
1.62	xG	1.50
6 matches	sample	6 matches

Form comparison

Per-match averages over the last 5 matches (5 in sample), captured when this prediction was published and never recomputed since.
Fluminense	Metric	Internacional
1.80 (better)	Goals scored	1.00
1.20	Goals conceded	1.20
1.31 (better)	Expected goals (xG)	0.90
	Big chances
4.80 (better)	Shots on target	3.40
12.40 (better)	Total shots	12.20
	Touches in opp. box
3.20 (better)	Corners	3.00
56.8 (better)	Possession %	38.4
634 (better)	Passes	344
	Tackles
15.20 (better)	Fouls	16.60
1.67 (better)	Offsides	2.20
	Throw-ins
2.40 (better)	Yellow cards	3.80
0.00 (better)	Red cards	0.33

Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.

Head to head

Full record →

Fluminense wins: 2
Draws: 0
Internacional wins: 1
Goals / game: 2.00
Over 2.5: 33%
Both score: 33%

Brasileirão Série A table

League table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts	Form
1	Flamengo	34	23	7	4	+42	76	Flamengo won 5 of the last 5
2	Palmeiras	34	21	10	3	+39	73	Palmeiras won 4 of the last 5
3	Cruzeiro	34	18	6	10	+7	60	Cruzeiro won 4 of the last 5
4	Fluminense	33	15	9	9	+10	54	Fluminense won 2 of the last 5
5	Atletico Paranaense	34	15	9	10	+8	54	Atletico Paranaense won 1 of the last 5
6	Bahia	34	14	11	9	+5	53	Bahia won 2 of the last 5
7	Atletico-MG	34	14	8	12	+4	50	Atletico-MG won 2 of the last 5
8	RB Bragantino	34	13	8	13	+5	47	RB Bragantino won 3 of the last 5
9	Santos	34	12	11	11	+1	47	Santos won 1 of the last 5
10	Sao Paulo	34	12	8	14	0	44	Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5
11	Botafogo	34	11	9	14	-7	42	Botafogo won 2 of the last 5
12	Coritiba	34	11	9	14	-11	42	Coritiba won 1 of the last 5
13	Vasco DA Gama	33	11	8	14	-7	41	Vasco DA Gama won 2 of the last 5
14	Mirassol	34	10	10	14	-9	40	Mirassol won 2 of the last 5
15	Internacional	34	9	11	14	-4	38	Internacional won 2 of the last 5
16	Vitoria	33	10	8	15	-13	38	Vitoria won 1 of the last 5
17	Corinthians	34	9	10	15	-6	37	Corinthians won 1 of the last 5
18	Gremio	34	9	10	15	-9	37	Gremio won 2 of the last 5
19	Remo	34	6	11	17	-20	29	Remo won 1 of the last 5
20	Chapecoense-sc	33	4	9	20	-35	21	Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5