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Brasileirão Série A predictions

Every Brasileirão Série A match in the next 14 days with the model's probabilities, the likeliest score and one headline call, published at least 24 hours before kick-off. The table, team statistics and results are on the Brasileirão Série A page.

18 matches in the next 14 days, 10 of them with a forecast published. The strongest favourite is Botafogo, 63% against Chapecoense-sc at home; the most evenly balanced game is Gremio v Cruzeiro (Gremio 34%, draw 26%, Cruzeiro 40%); the fixture expected to produce most goals is Botafogo v Chapecoense-sc, at 3.44.

Every match, one prediction

Today

Brasileirão Série A1Prediction

Tomorrow

Brasileirão Série A3Prediction

Sun 18 Oct

Brasileirão Série A5Prediction

Mon 19 Oct

Brasileirão Série A1Prediction

Fri 23 Oct

Brasileirão Série A1Prediction

Sat 24 Oct

Brasileirão Série A6Prediction

Sun 25 Oct

Brasileirão Série A1Prediction

4 more member picks on these Brasileirão Série A matches, with the price, stake and reasoning.Unlock every pick →

Match by match

Mirassol v InternacionalSat 17 Oct, 00:00

Our model makes Mirassol 45%, the draw 27% and Internacional 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.63 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%. The headline call is Mirassol to win at 45%. Mirassol are 15th on 33 points from 30; Internacional are 16th on 32 points from 30. Mirassol have won two of their last five; Internacional have won two of their last five. Mirassol have won two of the sides' last two meetings.

Botafogo v Chapecoense-scSat 17 Oct, 22:00

Our model makes Botafogo 63%, the draw 20% and Chapecoense-sc 17%. The likeliest score is 2-1 (10%), 3.44 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 62%. The headline call is over 3.5 goals at 45%. Botafogo are 12th on 36 points from 30; Chapecoense-sc are 20th on 18 points from 29. Botafogo have won one of their last five; Chapecoense-sc have won one of their last five.

Atletico-MG v CoritibaSat 17 Oct, 22:30

Our model makes Atletico-MG 60%, the draw 22% and Coritiba 18%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.10 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 57%. The headline call is Atletico-MG to win at 60%. Atletico-MG are 7th on 47 points from 30; Coritiba are 11th on 39 points from 30. Atletico-MG are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws); Coritiba are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats).

Atletico Paranaense v PalmeirasSat 17 Oct, 23:30

Our model makes Atletico Paranaense 31%, the draw 27% and Palmeiras 42%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (13%), 2.71 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. The headline call is both teams to score at 55%. Atletico Paranaense are 3rd on 53 points from 30; Palmeiras are 2nd on 63 points from 30. Atletico Paranaense have won two of their last five; Palmeiras are unbeaten in five (three wins, two draws).

Sao Paulo v Vasco DA GamaSun 18 Oct, 01:00

Our model makes Sao Paulo 41%, the draw 29% and Vasco DA Gama 30%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.33 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 48%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 59%. Sao Paulo are 10th on 39 points from 30; Vasco DA Gama are 14th on 35 points from 29. Sao Paulo have won two of their last five; Vasco DA Gama have won three of their last five. The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Sao Paulo wins, draws and Vasco DA Gama wins.

Fluminense v SantosSun 18 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Fluminense 50%, the draw 23% and Santos 27%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (10%), 3.42 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 66%. Fluminense are 4th on 51 points from 30; Santos are 8th on 42 points from 30. Fluminense have won three of their last five; Santos have won three of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

Gremio v CruzeiroSun 18 Oct, 20:00

Our model makes Gremio 34%, the draw 26% and Cruzeiro 40%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.89 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 59%. The headline call is over 2.5 goals at 55%. Gremio are 18th on 31 points from 30; Cruzeiro are 6th on 48 points from 30. Gremio are without a win in five (three draws, two defeats); Cruzeiro have won three of their last five. Cruzeiro have won three of the sides' last three meetings.

Bahia v FlamengoSun 18 Oct, 22:30

Our model makes Bahia 23%, the draw 25% and Flamengo 52%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (12%), 2.74 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 54%. The headline call is Flamengo to win at 52%. Bahia are 5th on 49 points from 30; Flamengo are 1st on 64 points from 30. Bahia have won three of their last five; Flamengo are unbeaten in five (four wins, one draw). The sides' last two meetings split 1–0–1 between Bahia wins, draws and Flamengo wins.

Remo v RB BragantinoSun 18 Oct, 23:30

Our model makes Remo 32%, the draw 29% and RB Bragantino 39%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.40 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 57%. Remo are 19th on 25 points from 30; RB Bragantino are 9th on 40 points from 30. Remo are without a win in five (two draws, three defeats); RB Bragantino have won one of their last five.

Corinthians v VitoriaTue 20 Oct, 00:00

Our model makes Corinthians 44%, the draw 29% and Vitoria 28%. The likeliest score is 1-1 (14%), 2.41 goals are expected, over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 49%. The headline call is under 2.5 goals at 57%. Corinthians are 17th on 32 points from 30; Vitoria are 13th on 36 points from 30. Corinthians have lost all of their last five; Vitoria have won two of their last five. One of the sides' last two meetings was drawn.

The numbers this season

Brasileirão Série A has averaged 2.68 goals a game over 299 matches this season, with over 2.5 goals in 52% of them and both sides scoring in 60%. Home sides have won 47% of matches, 28% have been drawn and away sides have won 24%. Those rates are the base the model's probabilities are judged against: a call only stands out where it beats what the competition normally produces.

About these predictions

How are Brasileirão Série A predictions made?
A Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model rates every side's attack and defence from recent results and expected goals, with home advantage estimated from this season's matches, and turns the two sides' ratings into a probability for every scoreline. Match result, total goals and both teams to score are all summed from that one distribution, so they cannot contradict each other.
When are Brasileirão Série A predictions published?
At least 24 hours before kick-off and up to eight days ahead, as soon as both sides' recent form is on record. Nothing is edited or removed after kick-off; the dated pages keep every forecast as it was published.
How often do home teams win in Brasileirão Série A?
47% of matches this season, over 299 played, with 28% drawn and 24% won by the away side. Matches have averaged 2.68 goals, and over 2.5 goals has landed in 52%.

The method in full is under how it works; the model is explained on its own page. A high probability is not a certainty: a 70% call is expected to be wrong three times in ten.

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