Bahia v 
Flamengo
- Over 1.5
- 77%
- Over 2.5
- 52%
- Over 3.5
- 30%
- Both score
- 54%
- Model pick
- Flamengo 52%
- Likely score
- 1-1 12%
- Expected goals
- 1.05 – 1.69
Advised bets
Members only
Confidence 4 of 5Model pick: Match result
Members see the selection itself, the advised price and bookmaker, the stake in units and the reasoning. Once the day is over it is published here for everyone, with its outcome.
Our probabilities against the marketMembers
Every market, priced — members only
11 selections across the match result, Asian handicap, total goals, both teams to score and correct score, each with our probability and fair price beside the best price available and the gap between them. Published for everyone once the day is over.
A positive gap means our probability is higher than the price implies. That is information, not a recommendation: a pick is only published where the gap clears our bar after allowing for model error, and those appear above.
Flamengo favoured against Bahia
Our model makes Bahia 23% to win this Brasileirão Série A fixture, with the draw at 25% and Flamengo at 52%. The goal projection is 1.05 for Bahia against 1.69 for Flamengo — a substantial edge to Flamengo on expected output. A combined 2.74 goals points to an open game around the league average, which puts over 2.5 at 52% and both teams to score at 54%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12%, though no individual scoreline is ever likely in absolute terms — that is the nature of a low-scoring sport. This sits in the awkward middle of the distribution, where the model has a view but not a strong one. All figures come from a Dixon–Coles adjusted Poisson model fitted on recent results and expected goals. They are estimates, not forecasts of fact.
- Most likely scores
- 1-1 12%
- 0-1 10%
- 1-2 10%
- 0-2 9%
- 0-0 7%
This season
| Bahia | Flamengo | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Played | 30 |
| 13-10-7 | W-D-L | 19-7-4 |
| 1.63 | Pts / game | 2.13 |
| 1.47 | Goals for / game | 1.93 |
| 1.20 | Goals against / game | 0.83 |
| 50% | Over 2.5 | 60% |
| 63% | BTTS | 50% |
| 30% | Clean sheets | 43% |
| 13% | Failed to score | 7% |
| 7-6-2 | Home record | 11-3-1 |
| 6-4-5 | Away record | 8-4-3 |
| W1 | Streak | W1 |
2026 league matches only, computed from results on record. Bahia · Flamengo
Full-match statistics, per game this season
Produced
| 12.0 | Shots | 13.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Shots on target | 6.0 |
| 4.0 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 2.00 | Cards | 3.67 |
| 12.7 | Fouls | 15.0 |
| 51 | Possession % | 55 |
| 3.22 | xG | 1.72 |
| 3 matches | sample | 3 matches |
Conceded
| 15.3 | Shots | 14.3 |
|---|---|---|
| 6.3 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 5.0 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 2.67 | Cards | 4.67 |
| 11.0 | Fouls | 16.3 |
| 49 | Possession % | 45 |
| 1.89 | xG | 1.04 |
| 3 matches | sample | 3 matches |
Form comparison
| Bahia | Metric | Flamengo |
|---|---|---|
| 1.80 | Goals scored | 1.80 |
| 1.60 | Goals conceded | 1.00 (better) |
| 2.04 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.62 (better) |
| Big chances | ||
| 4.80 | Shots on target | 5.40 (better) |
| 12.20 | Total shots | 13.80 (better) |
| Touches in opp. box | ||
| 4.80 | Corners | 7.00 (better) |
| 55.6 (better) | Possession % | 54.8 |
| 502 | Passes | 518 (better) |
| Tackles | ||
| 14.00 | Fouls | 11.60 (better) |
| 1.40 | Offsides | 1.40 |
| Throw-ins | ||
| 2.60 (better) | Yellow cards | 3.00 |
| 0.00 (better) | Red cards | 0.50 |
Big chances, Touches in opp. box, Throw-ins are not supplied by our current data provider (api-football). Rather than estimate them and present the estimate as a measurement, we show nothing.
Head to headFull record →
- Bahia wins
- 1
- Draws
- 0
- Flamengo wins
- 1
- Goals / game
- 1.50
- Over 2.5
- 0%
- Both score
- 0%
- Flamengo v Bahia2–02026-04-19
- Bahia v Flamengo1–02025-10-05
Brasileirão Série A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | 7 | 4 | +33 | 64 | Flamengo won 4 of the last 5 |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | 9 | 3 | +30 | 63 | Palmeiras won 3 of the last 5 |
| 3 | Atletico Paranaense | 30 | 15 | 8 | 7 | +14 | 53 | Atletico Paranaense won 2 of the last 5 |
| 4 | Fluminense | 30 | 14 | 9 | 7 | +11 | 51 | Fluminense won 3 of the last 5 |
| 5 | Bahia | 30 | 13 | 10 | 7 | +8 | 49 | Bahia won 3 of the last 5 |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 30 | 14 | 6 | 10 | +2 | 48 | Cruzeiro won 3 of the last 5 |
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +6 | 47 | Atletico-MG won 3 of the last 5 |
| 8 | Santos | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 42 | Santos won 3 of the last 5 |
| 9 | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | 7 | 12 | +3 | 40 | RB Bragantino won 1 of the last 5 |
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 30 | 11 | 6 | 13 | 0 | 39 | Sao Paulo won 2 of the last 5 |
| 11 | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | 9 | 11 | -10 | 39 | Coritiba won 0 of the last 5 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | -5 | 36 | Botafogo won 1 of the last 5 |
| 13 | Vitoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -11 | 36 | Vitoria won 2 of the last 5 |
| 14 | Vasco DA Gama | 29 | 9 | 8 | 12 | -6 | 35 | Vasco DA Gama won 3 of the last 5 |
| 15 | Mirassol | 30 | 8 | 9 | 13 | -10 | 33 | Mirassol won 2 of the last 5 |
| 16 | Internacional | 30 | 7 | 11 | 12 | -5 | 32 | Internacional won 2 of the last 5 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 30 | 8 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 32 | Corinthians won 0 of the last 5 |
| 18 | Gremio | 30 | 7 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 31 | Gremio won 0 of the last 5 |
| 19 | Remo | 30 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -15 | 25 | Remo won 0 of the last 5 |
| 20 | Chapecoense-sc | 29 | 3 | 9 | 17 | -31 | 18 | Chapecoense-sc won 1 of the last 5 |